Some sort of 3rd chain from people who coded something that will start rejecting blocks after the September activation of 110.
No, except from Paul Sztorc chain, I think there is nothing planned. But this thing is different, because his idea is just a hard-fork, to bring sidechains to Bitcoin.
And URSF from Super Testnet is not getting that much support, to form a third chain:
https://github.com/supertestnet/ursf-110the knots client can become the dominant chain with 15% hashrate because miners will see it's better and switch in a few weeks after the fork
A few weeks, with 15% hashrate, is not enough to trigger difficulty adjustment even once (2 weeks * 20/3 = over 13 weeks; and then it will be just 25% of the previous value, so the next adjustment will also take more than 2 weeks). Beyond 100 confirmations, miners will start moving their coins, and then, people will end up on different chains, even if there would be no replay protection, just because coinbase transactions will be different, and they will split the coins.
Also, mining pools know, which pool does what, because of spy mining. If you think that Foundry doesn't know, if Antpool supports something or not, then you are wrong. All mining pools will quickly know, that the support for BIP-110 is at best 1% or 2%, so they won't assume, that any other pool is going to activate it: by looking at block headers, sent by another pool, they will know exactly, who is going to signal what.
In the
prisoner's dilemma, you don't know, what another prisoner is going to do. Which is not the case with mining. Even if you have just CPUs, and nothing else, then you can always request a block template from any pool, and see, what is there. Some developers did that:
https://b10c.me/observations/12-template-similarity/If developers can request block header from any pool, and see, what is going on, just because they are curious, then you think pool operators don't look at their competitors?