We enter a significant Bull Run every approximately four years. And considering we have one significant run every Halving, is that not a cycle?
Maybe speculation about the halving does move the market. But, overtime the halving effect must be reduced; in the first four years 10.5 million bitcoin were mined, and the next four years it was 5.25 million, which is a massive difference. But, today, the reduction in new supply is simply too small to trigger bull runs of the same magnitude.
And we neither see the same pattern as "it used to". In the previous cycles, the bull run started after the halving. Last time, the bull run started before the halving.