THERE ARE NO CYCLES

[Alpen]

THERE ARE NO CYCLES.

There is only adoption.

While you are arguing that cycles don't exist, I am busy profiting from them.

True, I have a tendency to leave some money on the table at the absolute market peaks because I exit within a year after the halving. However, my entries are pinpoint accurate. I simply wait for the price to drop below the mining production cost.

Last cycle, I entered around $17K and sold at $100K. Last week, I placed an order below $60K, and I am back in the market. I plan to sell closer to 2029.

[davis196]

Cycles are everywhere in the nature and in the universe. Stop saying that there are no cycles.
Do you have something against the Bitcoin price moving in four year cycles? Is there anything wrong with the Bitcoin price being cyclic?
Would you say "I'm sorry, I was wrong" when the BTC price hits another ATH after the next halving, which is about to happen in 2028?
The fact that Bitcoin was widely adopted in the last 10 years doesn't prove that "there's no cycle". I'm not obsessed with the "4 year cycle theory", I just don't give a damn that much. Enjoy the low prices, the market will recover some day. The ups and downs are what makes the journey exciting.

[Wind_FURY]

Ser, it's a FACT that there are Market Cycles. Are you saying that I'm making that up, and that the post you made in OP is the actual truth of the matter?

I'm not trying to offend you, ser, but respectfully, you are simply wrong.

Perhaps you are talking past each other.

A cycle that doesn't tell you exactly what's going to happen next is not what most consider "a cycle", but rather a sequence of events they don't yet understand.

Yes, it might start to look like a pattern that you superimpose on the set of facts, but it's not a "cycle" like, say, the tides or the yearly economic numbers that are based on the seasons.

Nobody here is pretending to know when the current "cycle" they say we are in is going to change to its next phase. They point to "the cycle" that... has changed its period lengths and amplitude each time.

Saying, "the cycle changes every time" is another way of saying there is no cycle that we currently know about.

Unless you are willing to go on record here and say, "based on The Cycle that I am sure Bitcoin follows, the price of Bitcoin should be $XXXX by August, and then $XXXX by October".

If your model fails to predict the price, then it's time to get another model. If you don't have a model that works, THERE IS NO CYCLE.

I'll go on record to say that the Cycle isn't intact anymore IF the bottom of the current Bear Cycle is two to three months away from October/November, 2026.

October - November are the months that the actual bottom is expected, before the start of the next Bull Cycle.

[Agbe]

THERE ARE NO CYCLES.

There is only adoption.

First of all, the pattern of the poem is unusual with the indent line spacing pattern. And the poem is a free verse with no alternative rhyme scheme. I was trying to capture rhythm at the first 6,7 and 8 lines but the indent spacing pattern confused me to unrealistic. In the last cycle, things were almost out of prediction but it still came in between the cycle and now we are all expecting Halving to start next year and if it happens then we are still in the cycle and the All Time High should be after the Halving but before then we will see some bull runs. Either before or after the Halving.

[legiteum]

I'll go on record to say that the Cycle isn't intact anymore IF the bottom of the current Bear Cycle is two to three months away from October/November, 2026.

October - November are the months that the actual bottom is expected, before the start of the next Bull Cycle.

Sounds good. We'll see how your model does.

So just to recap, you are predicting that BTC will continue to drop in price in the next four months, and then it will rise in price after that consistently to a new all time high in in the months after that, correct?

[Franklyn-wood]

I don't agree. There are cycles. It may not be as fixed and constant as people think, but there are cycles. Bitcoin price history tells a different story. The fact that there are cycles doesn't mean the price will move in a fixed and predictable way; there are always variables when humans are involved, but there is a pattern.

The price doesn't simply skyrocket simply because there was a halving. Something makes it go up. Activities make it go up, and that is basic economics. Humans are not as fixed as chemicals and maths problems, but their behaviour has a pattern to a certain degree. With the reduction of a supply, humans will predict that the price will increase because that is usually what happens when the supply of a thing is reduced, and the demand stays the same. This anticipation is what makes them buy. This demand increases the price, and as the price increases, more people buy. Both people who understand the system and people who just want to join the train and make use of the opportunity. This is usually why the price goes up, and we have a bull run a couple of months after the halving.
Then, when the price peaks, people start taking profit, and this leads to more people taking profit, which causes the bear market.
This is a cycle.

The problem people have is thinking that things will remain fixed. Things that have to do with humans change all the time. The cycle won't always start, stop or last as long as it did the last time. A bear season may last a year this cycle, as then last two years the next. The same goes for a bull market. There are lots of variables, which is why there will always be changes.

Another mistake people make is to assume that only the halving can cause a significant price change. As I said, there are other variables. World events determine how people react towards their investment, especially institutional investors. World events cancelled either increase demand or reduce it. Any one of those can make the price change, but it doesn't mean there are no cycles.

Waiting on the cycle or trying to time it is not a very smart thing either, because we know there is a cycle, but we can't correctly predict how it will behave. We can't tell when it would start, how dip or high it would go or when it would end. So there is no point timing it. The best thing to do is just buy when you can, since Bitcoin has shown to be very reliable in the long term.

I love the way you where able to break this down for better understanding. We all have different opinions to this point of views to thing or say there is a circle or no. This not not be our main priority to buying Bitcoin, since profit making is the major reason why we all are clouding around Bitcoin. Preparation is the key to every successful achievement in life, if we wait for the circle and are not making efforts to invest now, we might the carried alway by the opinions of that Bitcoin is in circles or not while the opportunity comes and goes

[DiMarxist]

I'll go on record to say that the Cycle isn't intact anymore IF the bottom of the current Bear Cycle is two to three months away from October/November, 2026.

October - November are the months that the actual bottom is expected, before the start of the next Bull Cycle.

Sounds good. We'll see how your model does.

So just to recap, you are predicting that BTC will continue to drop in price in the next four months, and then it will rise in price after that consistently to a new all time high in in the months after that, correct?

It seems that everyone is gradually turning into a Bitcoin analyst and prophet because, these days we are seeing alot of predictions which has been coming from many people. And we are seeing all sorts of predictions all over especially on this forum, for the records Bitcoin prediction is one thing that is very very difficult because some of the factors that control the price of Bitcoin is beyond the control of the public making prediction of Bitcoin very difficult.

[Furious 7]

I still believe that cycles exist and in fact since the beginning of the halving has always occurred with the same conditions and it is a cycle but for bearish or bullish affairs and those who believe in the theory of time vulnerability or when someone says specifically that this year will be bearish until the date and month xxx or until the price xxx it is not a cycle but only speculation is done.

But the cycle is still there and the halving continues to repeat showing that the cycle is still maintained since the beginning where in 1 halving there must be bearish and bullish as for the determination of the price or time frame it only leads to speculation.
 

[OgNasty]

“There are no cycles” is peak denial. Imagine losing half your savings and then claiming it didn’t happen… Nobody who sold the top is saying that there aren’t cycles. Maybe start listening to the people who tell the truth and make tons of money instead of those who don’t know what they’re talking about sitting on massive losses.

[d5000]

While you are arguing that cycles don't exist, I am busy profiting from them.

True, I have a tendency to leave some money on the table at the absolute market peaks because I exit within a year after the halving. However, my entries are pinpoint accurate. I simply wait for the price to drop below the mining production cost.

Yes, in the last 12 years the cycle model worked, but what OP is discussing here is that it is merely coincidence and probably also self-fulfilling prophecy. And that it is not a rule you will be able to follow eternally.

I for example am fond of a "cycle model" which is a mix of:

- Halvings as apositive sentiment trigger (they remind us of the limited supply)
- Attention cycle (people can't think all the time about Bitcoin, there will be phases with more or less presence in media and public opinion)
- pattern awareness (cycle as self-fulfilling prophecy, other patterns people can easily recognize)
- and sometimes, news (positive or negative) - including interest rates, tech stock prices etc.

You could "time" this cycle almost as precise as the "4 year cycle" with similar results, but the difference is that it not necessarily will last 4 years, it can also last 3, 5 or 7.

The attention cycle works approximately like this: after positive sentiment hits a peak (e.g. in mid to late 2025, mostly caused by the ETF approval and the political/regulatory changes in the US after Trump's victory), profit taking sets in, changing the sentiment to negative. People need some time to "digest" this negative sentiment. About 6-12 months after the peak usually the negative sentiment changes to neutral again. If there are no new negative triggers (news) then this is a chance for the price to go up again if positive sentiment is again building up.

The difference between this kind of "attention cycle" and the traditional 4-year cycle is that it is influenced, but not determined by halvings. I guess halvings for a long time will still have some positive influence on attention and sentiment, and thus in a "neutral" mood they could still change the sentiment from neutral to bullish. But mathematically, since at least 2020 halvings should be irrelevant as most BTC have been mined already.

The longevity of the "4 year cycle" in the sense of the very regular peaks and bottoms in my opinion can be attributed to very specific coincidences in the 2020-25 era.

It was for example a coincidence that the ETF approval in 2023/24 came in a slightly positive sentiment mood already and quite close to the halving, when the public had digested the FTX crash. What if this approval happened in mid-2022 instead? I almost would bet on that then the price would have turned to the upside after only 6 bearish months and possibly hit new ATHs in late 2022 already, with the first "supercycle" having formed.

Or what if COVID didn't happen in early 2020? 2019 was a very bullish year despite being far from halvings, and after the late 2019 sideways market a new ATH could have been achieved in early 2020.

[Jostern]

You are wrong. There are plenty of cycles. Here a a few explained.
https://theapplianceguys.com.au/blogs/laundry/most-common-washing-machine-cycle-options-explained


Here is my motor cycle.


There may not be any bitcoin cycles. But there are cycles.

Sorry, been outside in the sun all day my brain is cooked.


-Dave

Indeed there are plenty of circles, and we should also know that this things actually do exist….

But you might not know everything about this circles when it probably going to happen.

But the manner you have said it is quite confusing, and it makes me think so many times about what you have said.

I can see you’re having a very difficult and exhausting day.

Hope you have less stressful days ahead.

You actually got my brain cooked as well.

[snowpega]

Sounds good. We'll see how your model does.

So just to recap, you are predicting that BTC will continue to drop in price in the next four months, and then it will rise in price after that consistently to a new all time high in in the months after that, correct?

Yes, there are chances that the market will drop further from this point only if it is still dependent on its historical behaviors, and otherwise, if it is not, then until we don't get any bullish news for the market, the market is not pumping back right now. For example, if Iran and the US sign a peace deal and announce that they are stopping the war and will not start again, then in such a case, market sentiments will turn to the extreme bullish side in my point of view. DYOR!

Other than this, if we are in a bear market just in case, then I don't think the Bitcoin market can drop below the price of $50k in this bear run. The reason why I am saying this is that in the recent bull season, Bitcoin has been adopted at a great level, where it has been added to the US strategic national reserve, and after that, many other countries are considering adding it to their national reserve as well. Besides this, Bitcoin has been adopted by many organizations, companies, and institutions on a huge level.

[legiteum]

Sounds good. We'll see how your model does.

So just to recap, you are predicting that BTC will continue to drop in price in the next four months, and then it will rise in price after that consistently to a new all time high in in the months after that, correct?

Yes, there are chances that the market will drop further from this point only if it is still dependent on its historical behaviors, and otherwise, if it is not, then until we don't get any bullish news for the market, the market is not pumping back right now. For example, if Iran and the US sign a peace deal and announce that they are stopping the war and will not start again, then in such a case, market sentiments will turn to the extreme bullish side in my point of view. DYOR!

Other than this, if we are in a bear market just in case, then I don't think the Bitcoin market can drop below the price of $50k in this bear run. The reason why I am saying this is that in the recent bull season, Bitcoin has been adopted at a great level, where it has been added to the US strategic national reserve, and after that, many other countries are considering adding it to their national reserve as well. Besides this, Bitcoin has been adopted by many organizations, companies, and institutions on a huge level.

I agree, all of those factors weigh in far more than any "cycle" people can make up in their heads.

And if your "cycle" doesn't predict the price, then it's mental masturbation. (Or BS by the pumpers/copers to explain a market uptick / downturn).

[serjent05]

It seems that everyone is gradually turning into a Bitcoin analyst and prophet because, these days we are seeing alot of predictions which has been coming from many people. And we are seeing all sorts of predictions all over especially on this forum, for the records Bitcoin prediction is one thing that is very very difficult because some of the factors that control the price of Bitcoin is beyond the control of the public making prediction of Bitcoin very difficult.

Predicting the right price of Bitcoin in the following days is indeed very difficult to the point of impossibility because no one knows the future, but with the previous history and how it repeats itself or how it shows a pattern, people can speculate on the range of price before the halving, then speculate on the price surge after the halving.  There is a pattern seen in the previous market, and those who study and analyze the percentage difference of each price movement in each cycle can calculate and may produce a sound prediction.  But it is not perfect and remains susceptible to errors due to various market variables.

[Alpen]

Or what if COVID didn't happen in early 2020? 2019 was a very bullish year despite being far from halvings, and after the late 2019 sideways market a new ATH could have been achieved in early 2020.

Pandemics are cyclical as well. We have the familiar seasonal flu, and then every 11 or 12 years, a more severe strain emerges—like bird flu, swine flu, or the Ebola outbreaks we are seeing right now.

The real factor is geography. We only notice a disease when there is a massive, global outbreak. If it stays contained within Africa, no one gives a damn, and nobody even bothers looking for a vaccine.

As for Bitcoin, I have a different explanation. Investors are well aware of two key parameters: the mining production cost on one hand, and the halving date on the other. These two metrics are what actually drive the cycle.

Selling kicks in when investors decide BTC is too overvalued relative to what it costs to mine. Buying is fueled by anticipation of the upcoming halving, but it only truly begins once the price drops back down to the production cost level.