Why I trust sports betting over prediction market

[OsaiEmma]

I don't know if anyone have heard or read about this news : U.S. special forces soldier who won $409K charged for betting on Maduro's removal before raid was reported

source:  https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-special-forces-won-409k-bet-maduro-removal-venezuela/?linkId=932174801&fbclid=Iwb21leASSzsdleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZAwzNTA2ODU1MzE3MjgAAR5EK2kPTwgl8WgSggAn79HQujL0CC2enhvEaTgdMalX0kkK9EmR4tj1VMDXPw_aem_sxFNgZvfW2R4-5hrU4gL3w

We have heard a lot of issues about Polymarket, but this one right here is one of the major reason why I'm not a big fan of it.
Well, the case is still on going and if I'm not mistaken the soldier has pleaded not guilty on court. But, if this allegations are true, then a single person or a group of people can make tons of money on something that they knew in advance before the public does.
At least is sports betting, nobody knows the final score, something that is hard to rig. With prediction markets that involves politics, military operations, or anything that requires government critical decisions, there is always a chance that somebody knew something before making it to public. That's clearly a sign of disadvantage over someone trying to analyze the situation.

So, which one do you think is better? Prediction markets or sports betting?

Your input is highly appreciated! 

I have seen a post about this already. Anyways, sports betting is always more fun than any other form of betting. But I don't see any reason not to trust polymarket though, I mean, you're not betting against someone that have an insider information, so they're insignificant in the outcome of your bet or predictions.

The market makers of polymarket aren't rigging anything. I feel it is an even more honest form of gambling because, theyoutcome is out there far from their influence. They might have insider information on that particular event, that doesn't influence the outcome. And if someone else is privileged to such information and decides to use it and take advantage in the polymarket, then it is only disadvantageous to the house and not to bettors.

They won't say. The outcome is A so let's change it to B because a lot of people placed their bet on A. Nope, the outcome will be the outcome regardless of insider information or not.

[Livingleged]

Well, I don't think anyone here will prefer predictions  market  over sport betting  and even if there  is just Maybe  a few person, people  have been on the sport betting  for decades now  and have understood  the  process  and are very  familiar  with it. while the market  predictions is some how tricky, new and a bit complex  not as easy as the sport betting  and gamblers  alway prefer  what they are familiar  with even though some will always  want to try new things personally  I will go for sport any day anytime.

[danherbias07]

One is very prone to manipulation, and the other is not.

The same goes for me. I don't trust prediction markets, especially lines related to world events. Next time, they will probably manipulate the economy when there's a line about the inflation going down or up.

In sports betting, we watch the game live and place bets before it starts. Sure, it's also prone to getting rigged, but there's little chance that might happen in professional leagues. Everything is on camera, and if something is so obvious, the fans won't like it, and they might lose customers and viewers if they are caught on camera. The league management might deny it, but there will be a crack in their reputation that will linger with the fans every time they place a bet.

[_act_]

Well, I don't think anyone here will prefer predictions  market  over sport betting  and even if there  is just Maybe  a few person, people  have been on the sport betting  for decades now  and have understood  the  process  and are very  familiar  with it. while the market  predictions is some how tricky, new and a bit complex  not as easy as the sport betting  and gamblers  alway prefer  what they are familiar  with even though some will always  want to try new things personally  I will go for sport any day anytime.

If you check the first post on this thread, you will see that there are sports and prices of some assets that can be bet on prediction markets that insider manipulation can not be involved. But I also prefer sport betting sites when it comes to sport betting, but the sport betting on prediction markets can not also be manipulated.

[iv4n]

So, which one do you think is better? Prediction markets or sports betting?

Better in what way?

If we are talking about entertainment, I guess we can say both can be interesting... just in different ways. Sports betting is about sports... following teams & players, watching games. Prediction market lets you bet on almost any event you can think of... So in the end, all that matters is what you enjoy more. Do you like to watch football (or any other sport), or are you more into politics, economics, technology, or almost anything else?

[Cointxz]

So, which one do you think is better? Prediction markets or sports betting?

Your input is highly appreciated! 

Prediction market is highly suspicious due to many questionable market offer that subjected to manipulation due to insider information unlike sports betting that the game results is highly pure speculative since a single person or anyone that holds an information can’t dictate the outcome of the game unless there’s a blatant match fixing.

So far, I don’t have any experience on prediction market since sports betting already cover most of the possible bets available for sports.

[WhoYouCantKill]

If you check the first post on this thread, you will see that there are sports and prices of some assets that can be bet on prediction markets that insider manipulation can not be involved. But I also prefer sport betting sites when it comes to sport betting, but the sport betting on prediction markets can not also be manipulated.

I’m not always a fan of the prediction market so I don’t actually know how they make their predictions their, but from what I heard, their predictions are based on real life events, like issues that concerns politics and society, and several others, but you just said here that sports in the prediction market can be manipulated and I’m wondering since sports is equally a real life event, with real players, how can the prediction markets actually manipulate the outcome or result?

[GreatArkansas]

So, which one do you think is better? Prediction markets or sports betting?

Your input is highly appreciated! 

Prediction market is highly suspicious due to many questionable market offer that subjected to manipulation due to insider information unlike sports betting that the game results is highly pure speculative since a single person or anyone that holds an information can’t dictate the outcome of the game unless there’s a blatant match fixing.

So far, I don’t have any experience on prediction market since sports betting already cover most of the possible bets available for sports.

For me, it's really different from the goal of every gambler, as we all know, sports betting is way better if your goal is entertainment or sports fandom, but if your goal is like trading or forecasting, prediction markets are good for you.

Since for me, I'm more into entertainment and making money, sports betting is already enough for me.

[Fiatless]

So, which one do you think is better? Prediction markets or sports betting?

Your input is highly appreciated! 

With all these allegations of insider betting happening in various prediction market platforms, I might never be committed to them. There was a report that someone manipulated the weather prediction using a hand dryer. Another time, a Google staff member was arrested for using official information to place a bet. People could easily take advantage of these platforms because they have prior access to sensitive information.

Casino games and sports betting would remain my favourites until the prediction market develops and purges itself from malpractices.

[Localhostspeed]

Well, I don't think anyone here will prefer predictions  market  over sport betting  and even if there  is just Maybe  a few person, people  have been on the sport betting  for decades now  and have understood  the  process  and are very  familiar  with it. while the market  predictions is some how tricky, new and a bit complex  not as easy as the sport betting  and gamblers  alway prefer  what they are familiar  with even though some will always  want to try new things personally  I will go for sport any day anytime.

You are generalizing and that's not right. There are people that prefer prediction market far better than relying on only prediction because they have first hand information. If you can access information that public can't, you will be good in prediction market instead of relying on just what you think. What you know and very sure of is better than what you don't know or what you think and the bet is reliable than other form bet you can ever think about.

The disadvantage of prediction is market is that if you don't have access to information, you will lose more than you prepared for, it's better you don't even start it if you don't have an insider information. Some people believe that organizations are the first people that enjoy this in the prediction market, if they see what is expected from the market, they make it happen after they have place their bet, they will be the one to win while you be the sole loser.

[abaeze]

I don't know if anyone have heard or read about this news : U.S. special forces soldier who won $409K charged for betting on Maduro's removal before raid was reported

source:  https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-special-forces-won-409k-bet-maduro-removal-venezuela/?linkId=932174801&fbclid=Iwb21leASSzsdleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZAwzNTA2ODU1MzE3MjgAAR5EK2kPTwgl8WgSggAn79HQujL0CC2enhvEaTgdMalX0kkK9EmR4tj1VMDXPw_aem_sxFNgZvfW2R4-5hrU4gL3w

We have heard a lot of issues about Polymarket, but this one right here is one of the major reason why I'm not a big fan of it.
Well, the case is still on going and if I'm not mistaken the soldier has pleaded not guilty on court. But, if this allegations are true, then a single person or a group of people can make tons of money on something that they knew in advance before the public does.
At least is sports betting, nobody knows the final score, something that is hard to rig. With prediction markets that involves politics, military operations, or anything that requires government critical decisions, there is always a chance that somebody knew something before making it to public. That's clearly a sign of disadvantage over someone trying to analyze the situation.

So, which one do you think is better? Prediction markets or sports betting?

Your input is highly appreciated! 

The biggest problem with prediction markets is that some people know about the events they are betting on before the general public and they use that information to bet, as a result they get a huge advantage and their chances of winning are much higher than other people. And this incident is a real example of that. So if someone gives me the option to bet on sporting and prediction markets, I will choose sports betting because there is more transparency here than anywhere else and the ability to use your own judgment and analysis and statistics is also greater than anywhere else.

[viljy]

There is a certain logic in the OP's reasoning. You should choose bets with a high degree of competition. Of course, this is primarily sports betting. But even in politics, one can find stakes where there is no dominance of one side, that is, there is no predestination of events.

The general logic is that the less randomness there is in gambling, the more gambling is at risk of manipulation and/or insider trading. According to this logic, prediction markets are more predictable than sports betting. Sports betting is more predictable than regular casino gambling. Because the result of the latter is completely based on chance (with the exception of poker, which has an element of experience and skill).

Accordingly, manipulative risks are increasing from conventional gambling to prediction markets. Sports betting occupies an intermediate position on this conditional scale of resistance to insider trading.

[_act_]

If you check the first post on this thread, you will see that there are sports and prices of some assets that can be bet on prediction markets that insider manipulation can not be involved. But I also prefer sport betting sites when it comes to sport betting, but the sport betting on prediction markets can not also be manipulated.

I’m not always a fan of the prediction market so I don’t actually know how they make their predictions their, but from what I heard, their predictions are based on real life events, like issues that concerns politics and society, and several others, but you just said here that sports in the prediction market can be manipulated and I’m wondering since sports is equally a real life event, with real players, how can the prediction markets actually manipulate the outcome or result?

What I posted is that the prediction markets also have sports and other predictions like coins price predictions, and even you can predict about weather there which can not be manipulated. That there are many predictions on the prediction markets that there will be no insider involvement. You can read what I posted again so that you can understand it.

[Darker45]

This is more or less the same with sports betting involving a rigged match. An insider could also make easy money from it.

But the big difference is that in sports, a game has yet to be played. Everything ends up in the hands of the actual players. Although the game is already set according to a pre-arranged result and the players already paid partly or fully of their participation, the risk of it going awry is still there.

Whereas, in the prediction market, a decision reached will be the decision to be announced. The risk of a final decision carefully deliberated and agreed upon including the president changing at the last minute is probably lower.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Right from time, I have only preferred bookies and even as prediction market started to trend, I have not find the need to use it because I already have all the games I want to bet on in the casinos and bookies that I'm registered on, there was an event in 2025 that would have made me used polymarket but I didn't and that would have been the first time. Prediction market can take advantage of insider information  just an someone (government official) can also use the advantage to win.

[donnajackson75]

So, which one do you think is better? Prediction markets or sports betting?

it’s not really about which one is “better” in theory - they both have their own problems.
in sports betting it’s more about account limits. once you show any consistency (CLV, props, etc), most books just quietly restrict you or start rejecting bets.
i’ve been trying a few smaller platforms lately, including sportbet.one, mainly because they don’t seem to hit limits as fast as the big books. not perfect - UX is rough and odds can lag - but at least i’m not getting instantly capped after a short streak.
honestly, i’d take that over polished books that turn into “$5 max bet” after a few wins.

[TedMosby]

[...]
So, which one do you think is better? Prediction markets or sports betting?
[...]

You can't compare prediction markets and sports betting. It's not an apple-to-apple comparison.

Have you ever visited a prediction market like Polymarket? There, you will find not only random or absurd events to predict and bet on, like the ones you talked about, but also many other things, including sports, crypto prices, and even the weather.

The difference is that in sports betting (centralized), the odds are determined by the sportsbook. You bet against the sportsbook. But in prediction markets like Polymarket, you bet against other players. The odds are determined by the trading activity in the market you place your bet on.

[gracreavix]

There are many advantages to why sports betting is better than prediction markets. First of all, people who have access to insider information will surely choose prediction markets over sports betting. Why wouldn't they, when they can make a whole lot of money without skill?
With this, prediction markets don't create fairness at all. With insider information, you could make it big. Basically, to actually win in prediction markets continuously is by having insider information. Otherwise, you are just like the rest of the pawns being used and tossed around by rich folks.
We've heard stories about how people got insider information, bet on prediction markets, and won. And still, people somehow continue to bet on these platforms.

[shawonngp]

Comparing with sports betting and prediction markets, I think sports betting is trustworthy, but not 100%, because there are sports betting and match fixing cases. In the end, we can see the match live and can enjoy everything that happens as it is broadcast live. But I don't believe in prediction markets; there is a lot of manipulation here, especially in recent big cases seen on PolyMarket. Some insiders made a big win by manipulation, due to which common gamblers suffered a lot. Even Polymarket has lost the trust of many people.

[yahoo62278]

I don't know if anyone have heard or read about this news : U.S. special forces soldier who won $409K charged for betting on Maduro's removal before raid was reported

source:  https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-special-forces-won-409k-bet-maduro-removal-venezuela/?linkId=932174801&fbclid=Iwb21leASSzsdleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZAwzNTA2ODU1MzE3MjgAAR5EK2kPTwgl8WgSggAn79HQujL0CC2enhvEaTgdMalX0kkK9EmR4tj1VMDXPw_aem_sxFNgZvfW2R4-5hrU4gL3w

We have heard a lot of issues about Polymarket, but this one right here is one of the major reason why I'm not a big fan of it.
Well, the case is still on going and if I'm not mistaken the soldier has pleaded not guilty on court. But, if this allegations are true, then a single person or a group of people can make tons of money on something that they knew in advance before the public does.
At least is sports betting, nobody knows the final score, something that is hard to rig. With prediction markets that involves politics, military operations, or anything that requires government critical decisions, there is always a chance that somebody knew something before making it to public. That's clearly a sign of disadvantage over someone trying to analyze the situation.

So, which one do you think is better? Prediction markets or sports betting?

Your input is highly appreciated! 

This is at least the 2nd topic on the subject, use the search feature and you might find the other thread. Regardless, there are people out there looking for the easy way and markets like this make it easier for them to cheat in life. Anything involving military or politics shouldn't be wagered on because the manipulation could lead to bigger consequences for the world IMO.