Why I trust sports betting over prediction market

[hyudien]

So, which one do you think is better? Prediction markets or sports betting?

Your input is highly appreciated! 

It depends on each individual, but for me in short, I choose sports betting, in the prediction market there are too many insider games, let's call it polymarket which until now has quite a lot of insider game cases until some countries refuse Polymarket to do business in their countries.
 
And one other important thing is that I am more accustomed to betting on sports betting sites,

[Accardo]

It depends on each individual, but for me in short, I choose sports betting, in the prediction market there are too many insider games, let's call it polymarket which until now has quite a lot of insider game cases until some countries refuse Polymarket to do business in their countries.
 
And one other important thing is that I am more accustomed to betting on sports betting sites,

Players will find it a hard thing to go the way of prediction market, it's a whole new niche, with a wide variety of possibilities of making or losing money. Gambling over real life occurrence like who'd win a fight or country war is not something everybody could think of or get correctly, only soldiers and insiders in the political field could come up with the sure decision they've overheard from the top guys or leaders themselves and bet high amounts to win bigger profits. Think of the google employee who was able to bet correctly on who would be the highest searched on google, who would have gotten it correctly aside from him, markets like that will soon get abandoned because it's only for the insiders to guess correctly, if you're not part of the targeted department, nothing for you. 

[Slow death]

I prefer sports betting; I've loved football since I was a child, so for me, betting on football matches, something I've followed for many years, is much better than betting on things in the prediction market, and those are things I wouldn't have any expertise in. For example, betting on things like "when will the war between Israel and Iran finally end? " is something I couldn't even dream of getting right. First, because I don't constantly follow Israeli and Iranian politics, although I do follow news about the war all the time. So, betting on the prediction market requires a lot of knowledge of credible information, and that's something I don't have.

[Mhizlove]

Everybody should go for what they prefer. Sport betting people are afraid of fixed games even when it's not rampant in the prediction market. People are afraid of those with insider information taking advantage of that. Sport betting is still way better, and that's where I still remain. This prediction market trend is still not moving me to start making predictions and staking my money there.

I will say that familiarity also has a huge role to play, alot of people stick to sport betting because that's what they understand and has followed for years. So when you understand's a system better, it will be much easier to manage the risk and make better decisions. At the end of it all, no betting option is guaranteed profit. The most important thing there is to go for or choose the one that you understand most and avoid putting money where you're not supposed to because of hypes and trends.

[Grace333]

Another reason why I keep telling people that Prediction market will only influence more people to bet using inside information. Even if they manage to ignore betting themselves they can still leak the information to a friend staying far away from them in other to hide all tracks that would make dem guilty. To some extent I'll say it's more of illegal betting than actual thing of luck, and that why when I hear people win big in the Prediction market the first thought that comes across my mind is that it might be an inside information that would make someone confident enough to bet big.

[Pandu Geddon]

So, which one do you think is better? Prediction markets or sports betting?

I prefer sports betting. Even though there are other markets in prediction markets, looking at markets related to political issues is not enjoyable for me. Sports betting is more comfortable for me, not in terms of how fair both are, but I do enjoy sports betting more.

[Sim_card]

Sports betting, bitcoin prices, ethereum prices, solana prices, gold prices, oil prices and many other predictions are also on prediction markets. I only go there for bitcoin price prediction bets, while I prefer to bet on gamble predictions on sport gambling sites because i do not like to track the progress of the sport like I am looking for money through it.

I agree with you mate. Whatever involves sport and casino games, I use the casino and not Polymarket. I can only bet on Predictions in Polymarket that ain't included in casinos. Polymarket is always easy to manipulate than casino games or sportbets because an insider will always bet on the event to make money out of it since they have the right information about the event.

[Charcol]

I don't understand your argument. But in my opinion, it would not be right to judge sports betting and prediction markets on the same scale. In the case of prediction markets, there may be some events that very few people may know in advance. This can be called a weakness of prediction markets. But you are forgetting why, even though sports betting seems more transparent from the outside, things like injury news, team lineup, dressing room issue, referee decision, match fixing or late team news can also change the odds. Even sometimes big bettors or bookmarks get information before ordinary bettors.

[justdimin]

Prediction market is highly suspicious due to many questionable market offer that subjected to manipulation due to insider information unlike sports betting that the game results is highly pure speculative since a single person or anyone that holds an information can’t dictate the outcome of the game unless there’s a blatant match fixing.

So far, I don’t have any experience on prediction market since sports betting already cover most of the possible bets available for sports.

This is why I never trusted in, back in the day these prediction markets did existed, house had absolutely no input at all, and people's bets dynamically changed the odds, and this existed long long ago before polymarket. They just did not have the same quality of marketing that polymarket had, and polymarket did one thing that others did not do well, which is finding wagers, millions of people wager on everything, from biggest news, to cars that pass between two red lights type of small silly stuff.

So it is clear that polymarket could be manipulated, in fact we have seen it be manipulated before, like people who have done inside trading type of moves by betting on something and then going and doing it. So yeah, I do not trust them neither.

[AmoreJaz]

I don't understand your argument. But in my opinion, it would not be right to judge sports betting and prediction markets on the same scale. In the case of prediction markets, there may be some events that very few people may know in advance. This can be called a weakness of prediction markets. But you are forgetting why, even though sports betting seems more transparent from the outside, things like injury news, team lineup, dressing room issue, referee decision, match fixing or late team news can also change the odds. Even sometimes big bettors or bookmarks get information before ordinary bettors.

That is why prediction markets are prone to inside job so to speak. Because if someone has prior info or if some entities have the influence to change the narrative of the event, they can indeed bet on it and gain a lot of money. Whereas, with sportsbetting, would be hard for the site or members of the site to influence the game, unless it is rigged. But with big leagues, it would be a challenge to rig a game as they can ruin their reputation of the league and that would cost huge for them.

[YOSHIE]

So, which one do you think is better? Prediction markets or sports betting?

Prediction markets and sports betting have different challenges, as we don't like betting that is too complicated which requires analysis, statistics, guidelines for teams, players and so on, it's all in sports betting.
And others want simple bets and big profits, such as prediction markets which only offer bets on economic trends, election results, weather and so on, such bets look simple and easy, the odds are also bigger.

So, gambling or betting does not just depend on the type of bet, but the understanding and mental state of the gambler is also taken into consideration, where they feel comfortable in betting is what they consider, for me of course sports betting is what I like the most compared to the prediction market.

[Agbamoni]

Suing the soldier in court is absurd because tell me why the government is aware of insider betting on polymarket and will not take any action on polymarket. If someone in the government control does the insider betting and was caught they will take instanct action. It doesnt make sense at all. If there was no platform that condoles this illegal act people wont be doing them. Polymarket is the issue here, so since the government is not doing anything about it.

[Porfirii]

In many countries, mine included, the use of privileged information can be a crime, regardless of whether it is about insider info like the mentioned or fixed matches. The thing is that even if fixed matches are a real thing, they are not as common as all these events offered in the prediction markets where there is a very deep information gap between those bettors who are guided by pure intuition and those who really know the result on beforehand.

In sports bets I have the conviction that the outcome is yet to be determined, and I don't feel the same with the prediction markets, which by design seem to favour the use of privileged information.

[Dunamisx]

I have so many reasons why I should trust sports betting than any other form of gambling or entertainment and as such, I don't even see prediction market as any of this mention, that is why I prefer to play my sportsbet the way I like it and enjoying having fun at the same time because it is brain-teasing at the same time entertaining to play, because everyone watches sports are most of the events are what we see being common.

[len01]

There’s still some manipulation in sports betting, but it usually happens in lower leagues or smaller competitions. In the bigger leagues and major tournaments, it’s much less common.

If I had to choose, I’d still go with sports betting. The reason is pretty simple, I’ve been involved in sports betting for years, so I’m more comfortable with it and find it easier to pick betting options that make sense.

[Wakate]

I have so many reasons why I should trust sports betting than any other form of gambling or entertainment and as such, I don't even see prediction market as any of this mention, that is why I prefer to play my sportsbet the way I like it and enjoying having fun at the same time because it is brain-teasing at the same time entertaining to play, because everyone watches sports are most of the events are what we see being common.

I think sportbooks know how to make there money which can be obvious but prediction market are new and the only way they can make money is through manipulative move to ensure thatvl their users are not able to win bets on their platforms too frequently.
Winning is one thing gamblers really need and majority has been working hard to it.

[TopT3ns]

I have so many reasons why I should trust sports betting than any other form of gambling or entertainment and as such, I don't even see prediction market as any of this mention, that is why I prefer to play my sportsbet the way I like it and enjoying having fun at the same time because it is brain-teasing at the same time entertaining to play, because everyone watches sports are most of the events are what we see being common.

Sports are by far most entertaining and exciting to see. However, the utilization of money as a betting tool will alter your fun enjoying the game. You will readily feel depending on the result. The best thing is to simply play the game without any money to play so as to keep a clear and calm mind devoid of unnecessary anxiety.

[Dogedegen]

But, if this allegations are true, then a single person or a group of people can make tons of money on something that they knew in advance before the public does.

The same is true in sports betting and it is happening regularly, it is just that some random adjacent person can't do much. If you compare this to sports betting it could be like asking if the janitor of the team can predict what will happen, they can't but the players or the head coach can influence it. In the lower leagues there is match fixing and other stuff quite commonly.

At least is sports betting, nobody knows the final score, something that is hard to rig. With prediction markets that involves politics, military operations, or anything that requires government critical decisions, there is always a chance that somebody knew something before making it to public. That's clearly a sign of disadvantage over someone trying to analyze the situation.

So, which one do you think is better? Prediction markets or sports betting?

The problem is that you are basing your analysis on the odds on the market, this is a basic gambling error and it is how bookies trap people for betting on favorite teams or favorable outcomes of individual bets. If you do the same in sports betting or in prediction markets you are going to lose. Your analysis should not at all rely on that, and better it should even ignore that completely because you will bias your own analysis in a wrong way simply by knowing this. This is true for both kinds of betting, but with prediction markets it is even more so. It makes no difference to you that some insider can get rich on the prediction market, it has no impact on you personally. If you are betting on favorable outcomes because odds are good on the market, the problem is how you are betting. Still an insider winning even in that case has no impact on you.

[Orpichukwu]

Everybody should go for what they prefer. Sport betting people are afraid of fixed games even when it's not rampant in the prediction market. People are afraid of those with insider information taking advantage of that. Sport betting is still way better, and that's where I still remain. This prediction market trend is still not moving me to start making predictions and staking my money there.

I will say that familiarity also has a huge role to play, alot of people stick to sport betting because that's what they understand and has followed for years. So when you understand's a system better, it will be much easier to manage the risk and make better decisions. At the end of it all, no betting option is guaranteed profit. The most important thing there is to go for or choose the one that you understand most and avoid putting money where you're not supposed to because of hypes and trends.

You are right; decisions are to be made based on what the person is familiar with, especially how popular sport betting has been over the years, but for this prediction market, which offers most of the events that we commonly overlook, somehow we are interested in it but not to the extent of betting on them, like political events, weather forecasts and every other event that can appear available on the prediction market. If we are to go with what the person is familiar with, then some might be on both sides because once in a while their favourite event might be available on the prediction market for them to vote on.

[Antotena]

Another reason why I keep telling people that Prediction market will only influence more people to bet using inside information. Even if they manage to ignore betting themselves they can still leak the information to a friend staying far away from them in other to hide all tracks that would make dem guilty. To some extent I'll say it's more of illegal betting than actual thing of luck, and that why when I hear people win big in the Prediction market the first thought that comes across my mind is that it might be an inside information that would make someone confident enough to bet big.

Prediction market is nothing but organized bet sponsor by some people to make money. I have seen many articles how Polymarket is making people to make money in their platform and most often, it's an insider information. Therr was one time I saw BBC video on TikTok how one of the army bet on Venezuela president that was capture, he was supposed to go and do his job instead he was betting with oil and was eventually caught later and was arrested.

If you do prediction, it means you are becoming like the rest of people that has inside information but you will never make money like them because you are juts an exit liquidity to increase their chance of winning while you take the loss. I have seen many wallet that started this prediction thing on X but at the end of the month, it never went well, all their money goes to people that has the real information, where is the fairness in prediction market.