Why I trust sports betting over prediction market

[Zlantann]

Suing the soldier in court is absurd because tell me why the government is aware of insider betting on polymarket and will not take any action on polymarket. If someone in the government control does the insider betting and was caught they will take instanct action. It doesnt make sense at all. If there was no platform that condoles this illegal act people wont be doing them. Polymarket is the issue here, so since the government is not doing anything about it.

Laws should be obeyed at all times. The soldier was charged with using sensitive information for personal gain. Don't forget that the information he used could risk the lives of the soldiers who engaged in that military campaign. So what he did was a criminal offence that should lead to punishment if it is proved to be right.

I don't think Polymarket is the problem here since there is no proof that they are involved in any of the insider trading. However, I think the government should increase its monitoring function because it is becoming easier to manipulate outcomes.

[hedgeh0g]

Laws should be obeyed at all times. The soldier was charged with using sensitive information for personal gain. Don't forget that the information he used could risk the lives of the soldiers who engaged in that military campaign. So what he did was a criminal offence that should lead to punishment if it is proved to be right.

I don't think Polymarket is the problem here since there is no proof that they are involved in any of the insider trading. However, I think the government should increase its monitoring function because it is becoming easier to manipulate outcomes.

Of course, in geopolitics and other situations, people who are close and know more than others can use this to their advantage to win more money. Moreover, I think there are many of us who do this, but it's also hidden from view and extremely difficult to find. I also agree that oversight of prediction markets needs to be strengthened, but I haven't yet come up with a way to make these markets as transparent as possible. Even accountability probably won't have much of an impact on such dishonest players, because their desire to make easy money is so strong.

[Crytohillss]

Suing the soldier in court is absurd because tell me why the government is aware of insider betting on polymarket and will not take any action on polymarket. If someone in the government control does the insider betting and was caught they will take instanct action. It doesnt make sense at all. If there was no platform that condoles this illegal act people wont be doing them. Polymarket is the issue here, so since the government is not doing anything about it.

Laws should be obeyed at all times. The soldier was charged with using sensitive information for personal gain. Don't forget that the information he used could risk the lives of the soldiers who engaged in that military campaign. So what he did was a criminal offence that should lead to punishment if it is proved to be right.

I don't think Polymarket is the problem here since there is no proof that they are involved in any of the insider trading. However, I think the government should increase its monitoring function because it is becoming easier to manipulate outcomes.

I don't think everyone prediction market is automatically a scam the big problem is that so persons join thinking it's easy money when in reality they are competing against people who are far more informed and experienced most retail user end up learning that lesso the hard way at the end of the day if the odds are heavily tilted toward a little group with superior information . It's reasonable to question how good the market really is.

[retreat]

If I'm not mistaken, prediction platforms have tightened their oversight of accounts to prevent insider accounts from making significant profits and have implemented policies to prevent irregular activity. However, these prediction platforms' actions can't completely eliminate manipulation from their platforms, only minimize it. In sports betting, the opportunity for manipulation is lower in popular leagues, so the chances of a bettor being "cheated" when betting on matches in major leagues are generally lower, which is why many people still choose to bet on sports betting platforms.

[Sandra_hakeem]

I don't know if anyone have heard or read about this news : U.S. special forces soldier who won $409K charged for betting on Maduro's removal before raid was reported
We have heard a lot of issues about Polymarket, but this one right here is one of the major reason why I'm not a big fan of it.
Well, the case is still on going and if I'm not mistaken the soldier has pleaded not guilty on court.

If poly market have been accused more than 3 times, then what we assume to be an allegation is just plain fact. Everyone is jumping on the news to say one thing they know about the skeleton in their cupboard and let's not sweep it under the carpet.

But, if this allegations are true, then a single person or a group of people can make tons of money on something that they knew in advance before the public does.

Insider knowledge have made more millionaires than any legit business scheme I know. It's one of the reasons I can't have any business to do with poly markets.

At least is sports betting, nobody knows the final score, something that is hard to rig. With prediction markets that involves politics, military operations, or anything that requires government critical decisions, there is always a chance that somebody knew something before making it to public. That's clearly a sign of disadvantage over someone trying to analyze the situation.

So, which one do you think is better? Prediction markets or sports betting?

I don't even like the idea of predicting the outcome of a political office, military operations/wars.

[Myleschetty]

I don't know if anyone have heard or read about this news : U.S. special forces soldier who won $409K charged for betting on Maduro's removal before raid was reported

Aside from what you mentioned. This is not solely related to Polymarket.
Prediction markets are currently a breeding ground for gambling manipulators, which is one of the reasons many nations prohibit them, because they refuse to modify their services and adhere to their national gambling regulations.
As a result, you are not the only gambler who prefers sports betting to prediction markets because sports betting has a longer and more respectable gaming history than prediction markets, and it is preferable to rely on a platform that is well-known and used for quality service rather than one that is just getting traction.

[Wiwo]

If I'm not mistaken, prediction platforms have tightened their oversight of accounts to prevent insider accounts from making significant profits and have implemented policies to prevent irregular activity. However, these prediction platforms' actions can't completely eliminate manipulation from their platforms, only minimize it. In sports betting, the opportunity for manipulation is lower in popular leagues, so the chances of a bettor being "cheated" when betting on matches in major leagues are generally lower, which is why many people still choose to bet on sports betting platforms.

Sometimes we still have cases regardless of how prediction market sites have improved on their accounts and players' verification, what most abusers take advantage can hardly be handled since insider's can decide to bet from a different accounts not linked to their identity.

Predictions market have faced few regulatory issues in recent time, some of them have been closed down due to that, insider's betting is one of the major point which this thread also highlighted.

Sport betting sites are less exposed to abuse compared to predictions market.

[Dogedegen]

Laws should be obeyed at all times. The soldier was charged with using sensitive information for personal gain. Don't forget that the information he used could risk the lives of the soldiers who engaged in that military campaign. So what he did was a criminal offence that should lead to punishment if it is proved to be right.

I don't think Polymarket is the problem here since there is no proof that they are involved in any of the insider trading. However, I think the government should increase its monitoring function because it is becoming easier to manipulate outcomes.

They are not involved and like I said this happens in sports betting too, so I don't think any bookie is at fault what people are doing at their own events. Polymarket has no real way to effectively prevent this from happening. Even if they did extraordinary KYC checks on each person which would not be good for business, it still would not work because the people who have insider information can pass the information to their closest friends or family members or even colleagues and they can use that information to place those bets. KYC checks do not have a complete view of who people are in contact with, so this would not work either and it would even make it worse because then they would have to also prove that the person received information from the insider. It is different when the insider himself makes the bets because then it is very easy to determine his guilty.

[yhiaali3]

Laws should be obeyed at all times. The soldier was charged with using sensitive information for personal gain. Don't forget that the information he used could risk the lives of the soldiers who engaged in that military campaign. So what he did was a criminal offence that should lead to punishment if it is proved to be right.

I don't think Polymarket is the problem here since there is no proof that they are involved in any of the insider trading. However, I think the government should increase its monitoring function because it is becoming easier to manipulate outcomes.

They are not involved and like I said this happens in sports betting too, so I don't think any bookie is at fault what people are doing at their own events. Polymarket has no real way to effectively prevent this from happening. Even if they did extraordinary KYC checks on each person which would not be good for business, it still would not work because the people who have insider information can pass the information to their closest friends or family members or even colleagues and they can use that information to place those bets. KYC checks do not have a complete view of who people are in contact with, so this would not work either and it would even make it worse because then they would have to also prove that the person received information from the insider. It is different when the insider himself makes the bets because then it is very easy to determine his guilty.

Polymarket is not directly responsible for the case in which the soldier was charged with using sensitive information for personal gain, but it is indirectly responsible because this type of market is what drives this soldier or others to leak sensitive information for profit.

I believe the issue is no longer about compliance with regulatory laws or KYC, but rather for most countries it has become a matter of national security threat because these markets pose a risk due to the leakage of sensitive information or even the influence on the country's policy.

[crwth]

Personally, I like to use prediction markets because they're more decentralized, but they can really be taken advantage of by those in power. It's not the best thing to participate in, but I'm aiming to be more decentralized.

It's hard to predict, and it's prone to manipulation, so I would stick to platforms built on predictions and just bet on plays that aren't easily manipulated.

I'm just looking at the platform.

[Julien_Olynpic]

Sports betting also exists in the form of forecasts on the PoliMarket platform. And in my opinion, traditional bookmakers are gradually losing the technological race to forecast platforms. Forecast platforms are at the forefront of innovation, and unless traditional bookmakers begin to adopt their experience and combine regular sports betting with forecasts, they will gradually lose their market share. As for trust, I don't see much difference between forecast platforms and sports betting.

[lombok]

Personally, I like to use prediction markets because they're more decentralized, but they can really be taken advantage of by those in power. It's not the best thing to participate in, but I'm aiming to be more decentralized.

It's hard to predict, and it's prone to manipulation, so I would stick to platforms built on predictions and just bet on plays that aren't easily manipulated.

I'm just looking at the platform.

You are very acute in evaluating the flaws of your system. Nevertheless, it is very bad idea to still use platform which has been found to be prone to fraud. It's the same as willingly handing over money. Daydream not spend money at all but begin to real investments where regulations of true trades are far more faithful and can be always followed.

[nimogsm]

So, which one do you think is better? Prediction markets or sports betting?

Your input is highly appreciated! 

After all, these are different platforms for different purposes for the player. Prediction markets cover literally any event, possibly related to anything, and this is quite popular because you can remain completely anonymous in your choice. Sports betting platforms are focused exclusively on sports, although some are adopting the experience of prediction markets, as this is a trend that appears to be only expanding in scope.

[Shinpako09]

Obviously, sports betting is the better option, but prediction markets aren’t that bad as long as you avoid events like the ones you mentioned. Events like those can be easily manipulated or exploited because some people may have access to first hand information. There are still events you can predict that have little to no risk of manipulation, such as crypto price movements. Sports markets are also available on prediction platforms.

Anything related to politics is a different story because some people can get first hand information before the public does. So if you think it is a red flag, it’s better to avoid it.

[Agbe]

The Soldier was arraigned because he won the prediction from the Polymarket Prediction and probably they suspected him that the information was leaked. And this has already sent out a message to the public that more arrest will be conducted if such happened again. And that is to tell you that, sports betting is more saver because nobody will arrest you because you win your game prediction.

[Ronsbit]

As for me. I prefer sports betting because it is based on analysis and past records when researched. But prediction markets are damned too porous for manipulations. OP, the instance you have given here says it all. A few sets of individuals could be advantaged by firsthand information to their own personal benefit over the general market as a whole, compared to the others who took time to study the situations and make their own predictions. It is cheating the system and not a welcome practice in betting.

When it comes to government matters, there are high chances that officials could take advantage to do their dirty deeds just like the army officer did to their own benefit. I believe there are others yet to be caught in the act, and also the most recent, which involved the Google staff who also took advantage of firsthand insider information to bet and won a good amount of money from the system he is part of to cheat the system that made such a prediction open to the general masses. These are facts, not theories; it happened, and the internet recorded the situation, and it is easily accessible online.