Can peace news really make Bitcoin bounce back?

[Smack That Ace]

I think we should put aside the idea of ​​Bitcoin crashing during war. Functionally, Bitcoin would be more needed in times of war. They would definitely need Bitcoin in emergencies than their own national currency.

As long as the market continues to view bitcoin as a risky asset, it will be difficult for it to avoid impact or sell offs if war or economic instability occurs.

That said, thing do not always play out the same way. Sometimes the market becomes irrational and reacts in ways that are difficult to predict, much like what we saw during the recent conflict between Iran and the US. But just because Bitcoin held up during that conflict does not mean we should rush to conclude that it has completely detached itself from the risk asset category or become a safe haven.


Bitcoin would only be useful during wartime if electricity and the internet continue to function normally. Conversely, it becomes useless if electricity and internet are no longer functioning normally or are disrupted on a large scale.

[Pmalek]

The price already bounced back somewhat following confirmation by Trump and the Pakistani's that a ceasefire was imminent. But I don't believe this ceasefire is sustainable because of Israel. Their aspirations to take a chunk out of Lebanon is still too strong, and they will find a way to get the US back into the war. Then we will sadly be back to bitcoin going down.

Bitcoin isn't independent from world politics/economy. Just watch the price around and during FED meetings when it's being decided what they will do with the rates. Bitcoin acts like an EKG monitor, jumping up and down from minute to minute.

[AprilioMP]

I don’t agree. Bitcoin is a system that requires no third parties other than the owner and the recipient. The rise and fall of Bitcoin’s price depend on the laws of supply and demand, not on the global political situation you mentioned. Global political conditions only influence market participants.

But demand for Bitcoin is entirely dependent on the market participants, investors. So, it is not entirely wrong to say that the global political situation has an influence on bitcoin.

The Bitcoin network and protocol may be independent of global politics, but the price of Bitcoin is not.

Prices depend on how strongly the laws of supply and demand apply. The levels of supply and demand can be influenced by global conditions. When global conditions are tense, investor confidence is affected. If global politics are stable—such as with the recent news of an agreement between the United States and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz—this will have a positive impact on investor confidence.

It depends on the perspective. If people view Bitcoin as a safe haven, they assess it from a hedging perspective because, historically, its overall price trend has been consistently rising since its launch.
For those who don’t see it that way, no matter how strongly we explain it, they won’t accept it. That’s what I mean by “it depends on the perspective.”

Yes, that depends on each person's perspective and definition of a safe haven. However, according to the traditional definition, Bitcoin is not considered a safe haven asset.

Is it too risky by traditional standards? Even traditional assets considered safe havens carry risks.

[ultrloa]

I don’t agree. Bitcoin is a system that requires no third parties other than the owner and the recipient. The rise and fall of Bitcoin’s price depend on the laws of supply and demand, not on the global political situation you mentioned. Global political conditions only influence market participants.

But demand for Bitcoin is entirely dependent on the market participants, investors. So, it is not entirely wrong to say that the global political situation has an influence on bitcoin.

The Bitcoin network and protocol may be independent of global politics, but the price of Bitcoin is not.

Prices depend on how strongly the laws of supply and demand apply. The levels of supply and demand can be influenced by global conditions. When global conditions are tense, investor confidence is affected. If global politics are stable—such as with the recent news of an agreement between the United States and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz—this will have a positive impact on investor confidence.

Yeah that's basic fundamental of Bitcoin, but we also need to consider on include on the picture the sentiments of people towards the news happened. Because market react so fast on new, because people easily got panic when bad news came. Then came back when everything cools down.

We can also see the current situation on which Iran and US made a peace deal, because after they signed an agreement Bitcoin slowly bouncing back and this is what we already see happening in the market now https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

[Zlantann]

Prices depend on how strongly the laws of supply and demand apply. The levels of supply and demand can be influenced by global conditions. When global conditions are tense, investor confidence is affected. If global politics are stable—such as with the recent news of an agreement between the United States and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz—this will have a positive impact on investor confidence.

I don't think any asset or business is immune to political and economic happenings or policies. The world is like a system that is made up of subsystems. A subsystem malfunction can affect the system's operation. As long as Bitcoin is part of the global financial system, it will always be influenced, positively or negatively, by the actions or inactions of global economic and political players. Don't get me wrong, negative news could be beneficial to the Bitcoin space, maybe because investors might use it as a hedge against inflation. Another news could lead to a massive dump.

[Franctoshi]

So now Bitcoin reacts again because of possible US-Iran ceasefire news. Some will say this is bullish because less tension means investors are more willing to take risk again.

But isn’t that also a bit worrying?

If Bitcoin is supposed to be independent from the traditional market and global politics, why does it still move like other risk assets every time there is war fear or peace news?
Maybe this is where the debate starts. Is Bitcoin really acting like a safe haven, or is it still just another asset that follows market emotion?

I’m not saying the bounce is fake, but I also don’t think one ceasefire news is enough to say the market is already strong again.

Do you think this kind of news can start a real recovery, or is it just another short-term pump because traders found a reason to buy?

Definitely, Bitcoin has already reacting to this news that Iran have come to a deal to not have a Nuclear weapon, while it matters is that I will bring investors confidence back to continue to invest in risk assets, while removing fear of uncertainty and doubt (FUD) in the global market/economy. Bitcoin is sitting at 66k and if everything comes back to normal, the whole thing will be priced in in a matter of weeks to come.

[OcTradism]

Definitely, Bitcoin has already reacting to this news that Iran have come to a deal to not have a Nuclear weapon, while it matters is that I will bring investors confidence back to continue to invest in risk assets, while removing fear of uncertainty and doubt (FUD) in the global market/economy. Bitcoin is sitting at 66k and if everything comes back to normal, the whole thing will be priced in in a matter of weeks to come.

Weeks ago, Bitcoin even recovered more strongly from bottom range than what it has performed around the Peace Deal between the USA and Iran recent days. You can see it as a recovery but because many people thought of not only a recovery but an early ending of bear market, with recent non impressive performance of Bitcoin, I don't see any scenario for it to end the bear market with this Peace Deal.

The market can be shaken and dumped again if either Iran, the USA or Israel break this peace deal in the future with attacks against each other, from only one side or back and forth. I am not too optimistic with effects from the peace deal on Bitcoin market in long term.

[knowngunman]

If Bitcoin is supposed to be independent from the traditional market and global politics, why does it still move like other risk assets every time there is war fear or peace news?
Maybe this is where the debate starts. Is Bitcoin really acting like a safe haven, or is it still just another asset that follows market emotion?

Bitcoin is still independent. It has no central authority but the price of Bitcoin is not independent. The price react to global trends and that's what makes it a volatile asset.

Moreover, larger percentage of Bitcoin volume is now being handled by institutions. So any time the institutions take action in the market either buy or sell, the market will react accordingly.

Now, we are seeing the effects of ETFs and Microstrategy in the market. The ceasefire news is a good development that reduce fear and people are beginning to buy back which is the reason for the pump.

[Boiboi20]

Do you think this kind of news can start a real recovery, or is it just another short-term pump because traders found a reason to buy?

This is not certain to say that the peace deal is a reason for bitcoin move up. In fact for like two weeks since it touched 61k, it has been on a very strong support and maybe the good news and the support caused the bounce up which is still looking temporal from the little drop reaching 63k/64k.

As to whether positive global news or negative global news can affect the movement of bitcoin, for me it is not yet confirmed. For instance in 2019/20 during the COVID-19 which changed the situation of so many countries economic development and policies but we saw the huge rise in the price of bitcoin.

I don’t think we can confidently say the peace deal is the reason bitcoin move up it had already been holding a strong support level for a couple of week so the bounce was likely building up already the good news may have helped but the recent pullback around 63k 64k also shows the move might not be as strong as some people think
when it come to global new affecting bitcoin i don’t think there is enough evidence to say it always reacts in one direction a good example is during covid 19 the world was dealing with a major crisis economies were strugglin  bitcoin went on to record one of it is biggest rallie That is why i believe bitcoin is price is driven by a mix of factors not just positive or negative news alone