Can we really fade the public without checking betting splits first?

[Joy- maker]

Still, it does not mean we should blindly bet the other side. Sometimes the public is right too. But at least if we check the numbers first, we are not just guessing or following what people say.

For those who use this strategy, do you trust bet percentage, money percentage, or line movement more when making your decision?

I agree with you that the public can be right sometimes but frankly speaking, i don't follow the public i bet based on what i feel is best for me after doing my own analysis. If truth be told, i gamble differently, i don't gamble when others do and i don't bet on every sport. And when it comes to football i don't play every league i focus more on Premier League, less on other Leagues.

[Orpichukwu]

I don't follow this logic most of the time; only when I'm too lazy to make some prediction and I have some spare money on my balance can I check on that.

There is a casino I do use here in this forum which I don't want to mention; they usually have the option of showing games which are mostly bet on and the option together with the possible winning rate. I pick from them sometimes and make a decision, but I don't make it a habit.

[o48o]

A lot of bettors say “fade the public” like it is already a sure strategy. If many people are betting on one side, they quickly look at the opposite side.

But honestly, how do we even know where the public is betting if we don’t check any real data?

If we want to use that as part of our decision, then we should at least look for reliable websites that offer free betting splits or public betting percentages. Sites like Action Network, VSiN, or DraftKings betting splits can give us some signs where most public bets are going.

Still, it does not mean we should blindly bet the other side. Sometimes the public is right too. But at least if we check the numbers first, we are not just guessing or following what people say.

For those who use this strategy, do you trust bet percentage, money percentage, or line movement more when making your decision?

Links that may help:

Code:

https://www.actionnetwork.com/public-betting
https://vsin.com/betting-splits/
https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/draftkings-sportsbook-betting-splits/

If i understand that correctly, you are talking about betting against the public sentiment.

I am not sure why would it make sense to go against the public for the sake of it. Thinking that majority would make wrong choices just because they are "emotional" wagers sounds like sounds like a theory based just on feelings about it. It's design to make the gambler feel more rational then others, and that really sinks in to some people.

But i understand the need of a strategy even if outcome wouldn't differ from pure guesswork. This one just doesn't make any more sense to me then anything else.

[Hispo]

A lot of bettors say “fade the public” like it is already a sure strategy. If many people are betting on one side, they quickly look at the opposite side.

But honestly, how do we even know where the public is betting if we don’t check any real data?

The majority of bettors do not even do any extensive research to know which is the favorite of the public or where money is flowing to. They just take a quick look at odds, both on the bookies they intend to bet on and also in other bookies, in order to compare odds on other similar services.

Also, I don't believe it is quite necessary to do an extensive research on which team is the favorite of the public, because that is quite obvious and quickly verifiable, one should invest more time looking at other metrics instead, which have more weight on the possible outcome of the match.

Though, it is always good to have sources to check if one feels like it.

[Churchillvv]

There are levels to this things, personally when I try to figure out where the public is going I tend use prediction sites not just one nor two but several and make comparisons and see where the public is pushing to and then maybe I can consider going the opposite because the public can be right some time so what I do then is take but side where it falls on then I win either way. Before I look at the odds and make conclusions but now I see that a particular betting site can be wrong and comparing them reduces the chance of this type of loss from happening.

[Cantsay]

The only time I go against what the public thinks is going to be the outcome is when I see something that they might consider insignificant, but it happens to have a great impact on my analysis.

I don't just go picking the opposite side simply because I want to be different from the rest of the public, if I do that, I am sure I would be losing all of my bets since the public can't be wrong all the time.

[Slow death]

My question is: what would change if I knew how many people are on side X and how many people are on side Z? In my case, it wouldn't change anything. I make sports bets based solely on my own analysis; I don't trust the opinion of the majority or the minority. I trust my own opinion, and that's what makes the difference. I prefer to spend hours analyzing the games on my own, and if I'm right, I celebrate, but if I lose, I'm not sad about it either. I don't see the need for me to research on websites which side people are betting on more or less.

[Wakate]

This will make sense on some certain bets but not in all bet. We can consider this as a good idea when betting on celebrity fight when the match maker would want to make money from there fight and allow the opponent that have less support and less bets to be the winner.
This is how these people make money from gambling and we should not be ignorant of that.

[Dr.Osh]

A lot of bettors say “fade the public” like it is already a sure strategy. If many people are betting on one side, they quickly look at the opposite side.

But honestly, how do we even know where the public is betting if we don’t check any real data?

If we want to use that as part of our decision, then we should at least look for reliable websites that offer free betting splits or public betting percentages. Sites like Action Network, VSiN, or DraftKings betting splits can give us some signs where most public bets are going.

Still, it does not mean we should blindly bet the other side. Sometimes the public is right too. But at least if we check the numbers first, we are not just guessing or following what people say.

For those who use this strategy, do you trust bet percentage, money percentage, or line movement more when making your decision?

Links that may help:

Code:

https://www.actionnetwork.com/public-betting
https://vsin.com/betting-splits/
https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/draftkings-sportsbook-betting-splits/

Yes, I agree with you. It's not about who wins, but whether our assets can grow here. If we only focus on our favorite team winning or thinking our favorite team is the greatest, that's a big mistake. We're investing our assets here. If we truly want to win, we have to consider everything, even putting aside our egos and not just supporting our favorite team.

[nelson4lov]

Sometimes it's good to take the contrarian bet rather than the consensus one but not all the time. The reason why some people advise against going for consensus bets is because once people flock into markets like that, the bets has already been priced in and you'll likely get very short odds or low odds and for such betting strategies (going for consensus bets) you need a really high win rate. Whereas the contrarian bettor just needs to win big once and not all the time.

[Agbamoni]

Why I don't like using betting site is because it's not accurate. Lost betting sites share fake data of players winnings in their platform to lure gambers. However, it doesn't matter if the stats are true or fake. What truly matter here is that the strategy is preferable for a particular type of game. Football is an exemption. Animal racing is the best game to use for the strategy.

[jossiel]

I'd say that this is why there's still a balance force in sports betting. For the typical games, the crowd is almost always right.

And that's what the bookies are even following but for some little factors that they see, it might change.

It's not always the same but the chances of the crowd is right is higher than they are not.

If I am lazy when I'm about to bet, that might be my style to do but it removes the fun on how to decide when I do my own analysis before betting.

[Dr.Osh]

What I've experienced is probably 70% true. If we bet against the majority, there's a greater chance of winning. Like Arsenal vs. PSG yesterday, who would have thought Arsenal would lose, even though they have a huge fan base? Even when I bet on Arsenal, it was a loss. I don't know if this was manipulation or just PSG's luck. But learning from this, we might have to go against the majority when placing a bet.

[AVE5]

But honestly, how do we even know where the public is betting if we don’t check any real data?

I think this should be best known by the bookies alone and until a poll is created in the site that describes the betting percentage to the public, bettors or the public wouldn't have that access to observe where the public is betting.
The poll should be a private chart for the company and shouldn't be disclosed publicly other wise, it'll be used as a means for bettors to cheat.
This should also be a tool for monitoring the public betting direction for the bookies and then uses it as means for the match manipulations. That's for those sport league's that's manipulative to make money from betting.

[Myleschetty]

In sports betting, no single strategy can be profitable over the long run. In my opinion, it is preferable to combine the betting percentage, money percentage, and line movement, which is similar to using a series of concepts for the confirmation of trading to know if the setup is good. To succeed, though, discipline and bankroll management are still necessary.

[Perfectbaby]

I do not really need to followup any site to know what is the public opinion or what game they are betting on, to be frank when you are betting or you want to place a bet on a gambling site what you should be taking note is, if the have at least 3-1 hour time to start, you drastically see that the favorite market which people picked most are gradually becoming lesser in their odds amount. To elaborate more, if you want to know the public opinion, or what market they have solidly bet on then check the odds ratio is actually very poor that is to say that there are lot of people who has already chosen that particular match to win. So what to do is that you can as well follow the public but I must say, most time the masses are not always right. Just follow your predictions and analysis then bet do not look at what others has already bet.

[Bluedrem]

In one place I see people expressing their opinions in different directions. Where others bet, there is often a third person who is on the opposite side. This is more common in the case of sports betting. Many times they go against the analysis. Even after analyzing a team, despite it being strong, they do not go with the flow and bet on a weaker team at a higher ratio, hoping that if they win, they will win more money.

[rachael9385]

The only time I go against what the public thinks is going to be the outcome is when I see something that they might consider insignificant, but it happens to have a great impact on my analysis.

I don't just go picking the opposite side simply because I want to be different from the rest of the public, if I do that, I am sure I would be losing all of my bets since the public can't be wrong all the time.

Going against the public can be very difficult to do and when noticed by some gamblers they might even discourage you because it is not something that really makes sense to them. Taking the opposite direction of an option that everyone has already picked takes a lot of courage to do, there's a reason why the public bet on that option.