Now is the time when prediction markets allow absolutely anyone on earth to make money if they have inside knowledge or are cunningly able to manipulate information. Remember that funny guy who used a hair dryer to insulate the weather indicators and made money on it. Or the military man who flew to capture Maduro. Everyone wants money, but it's not just Trump who is absolutely calmly managing the situation on the planet to his advantage. It looks like life is a game for him.
And now he has only one goal, it's to earn more bonus points in this fun game.
Yes, but all these people who either manipulated outcomes or possessed insider information were eventually found. the prediction market platforms themselves want third parties to place bets and roll out more and more measures to identify insiders. some people say they'll soon add verification but I think this will be a disadvantage for the platforms.
They might have been found, but was any real action taken? Sure, they get penalized at their job or whatever, but I don’t think they face criminal charges or have to give any money back. They need some sort of regulation and clear rules to reduce this sort of thing in the future. Otherwise, people will probably feel like the punishment is worth committing the crime (or lack thereof).
