Bitcoin bottom just 11 weeks away?

[JamesDaniel90]

August is one of the worst months for Bitcoin, with 9 out of 12 being red since 2014 and with news coming out yesterday saying the clarity act has again been delayed, i think we are in for a rocky few weeks.

With Bitcoin at $63k, surely it goes below the current $58.5k bottom by the end of August.   It just feels too early to have bottomed.

[Humblevirus]

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

Despite the fact that Bitcoin is unpredictable, I know that its price can fall to unexpectedly low levels or rise to unexpectedly high levels.
However, I would like to say that the chance of Bitcoin dropping below $50K is very low. Therefore, I would advise you to set a buy price that is higher than Bitcoin's current price. In fact, today's Bitcoin price, which is around $63K, is not really a bad price to buy.if you believe that Bitcoin is likely to hit a bottom below $50K, I would advise you to start buying regularly. That way, you won't end up missing the opportunity to buy.In fact, I don't see much difference between buying at $50K and $63K, especially if Bitcoin recovers after some time. You could still make a good profit. For example, if Bitcoin rises back to $126K it all time high, your investment would double.

[JamesDaniel90]

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

Despite the fact that Bitcoin is unpredictable, I know that its price can fall to unexpectedly low levels or rise to unexpectedly high levels.
However, I would like to say that the chance of Bitcoin dropping below $50K is very low. Therefore, I would advise you to set a buy price that is higher than Bitcoin's current price. In fact, today's Bitcoin price, which is around $63K, is not really a bad price to buy.if you believe that Bitcoin is likely to hit a bottom below $50K, I would advise you to start buying regularly. That way, you won't end up missing the opportunity to buy.In fact, I don't see much difference between buying at $50K and $63K, especially if Bitcoin recovers after some time. You could still make a good profit. For example, if Bitcoin rises back to $126K it all time high, your investment would double.

I have advised before that I am not interested in Bitcoin at $63k. It may 3x from this price next bull run top but why invest into Bitcoin for a 3x return when top alts will 5-10x from current prices.

Even XRP for example, will likely 5x from current price when Bitcoin hits a new high in a few years so id rather buy XRP for the better returns.

[bangjoe]

I have advised before that I am not interested in Bitcoin at $63k. It may 3x from this price next bull run top but why invest into Bitcoin for a 3x return when top alts will 5-10x from current prices.

Even XRP for example, will likely 5x from current price when Bitcoin hits a new high in a few years so id rather buy XRP for the better returns.

Who can be sure of that? Bitcoin with its journey of more than a decade has proven itself to benefit from the lowest price multiple times in each cycle, you may need to read again how each bitcoin cycle occurs.
The altcoins you mentioned are not necessarily, moreover the trash that is exalted with its conspiracies, you may see what happened in the last season, how BNB, ETH which is much better than XRP but just does not give such a big profit and even ETH hardly forms a new ATH.

Bitcoin can be said to have a guarantee to print multiples even if it is only twice or three times, but this makes more sense than fantasizing on altcoins with multiples you mentioned.

If your purpose of discussing altcoins you don't need to mention here, please move your thread to the altcoin discussion section, or lock this thread and create a new one there, it's more ethical, in here is a special thread for bitcoin speculation.

[CryptoBuds]

August is one of the worst months for Bitcoin, with 9 out of 12 being red since 2014 and with news coming out yesterday saying the clarity act has again been delayed, i think we are in for a rocky few weeks.

With Bitcoin at $63k, surely it goes below the current $58.5k bottom by the end of August.   It just feels too early to have bottomed.

Yes, the clarity Act may be delayed once again, but I don't see the market paying much attention to this news. I don't think it will make the market too rocky in the coming month of August.

Based on history, it's still too early to say that Bitcoin has already bottomed. However, it would also be quite subjective to say that Bitcoin will definitely drop further and make a new bottom. It could happen or it might not, and there's no guarantee.

[AprilioMP]

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

$44,000–$50,000 represents approximately a 60% decline based on data analysis of previous all-time high (ATH) prices and halving events. The $44,000–$50,000 range is a widely accepted bottom price for Bitcoin. Although the data analysis I’ve conducted to determine this bottom price leads me to believe it will happen, there is one factor that makes me hesitant—even though I do believe a deep price drop will follow the all-time high.

[YOSHIE]

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I have never come across any speculation on the price of Bitcoin, even though the halving occurred against the most critical drop to $35k, even if that event occurred, I personally would not allow it.

Even though Bitcoin is difficult to predict and speculate on, many Bitcoin experts and investors will see the lowest Bitcoin price go to the $55k level, which is my speculation, the lowest price in the current economic situation.

We know that the market is influenced by buying and selling, the global and national economy as far as I know is difficult, so to cover daily needs, it is actually a situation where the market is difficult to recover.

[lodocus]

Everyone is waiting for the right moment on this issue. Bitcoin has eroded people’s faith in something that seemed so certain time and time again that I feel it won’t surprise us this time either. So far, this bear market has been less severe than previous ones. The price dropped to about half of its all-time high and is currently trading slightly above that level. But I think we’ll see a bottom around the $50,000–$55,000 range.

I think we’ve come down from the all-time high to here very quickly. I can’t believe it’s been about 9 months already.

[d5000]

I think the currently "depressed" price action reflects the fear that a few weeks from now there could be a new low, and a "classical" cycle bottom in October or November. Most Bitcoiners are still cyclists, and who would blame them if it "just seems to work"?

But on the other hand a slight uptrend seems to have formed in the last weeks. IMO, if the price consolidates further above 60k, and we don't see more dips below the 57xxx lows from June until late August, then I consider it not unlikely that buying activity could retake in an attempt to front-run the first bullish move of a possible new bull market. This could even happen if we see slightly lower lows (above 55k). And if this leads to prices significantly above 70k before September/October, then I think the bears will have a difficult time to break below the 57k low. (black swans aside, of course ...)

Of course if we see a quite fast dip below 57k I think <50k prices are not impossible, although I consider the 48-50k barrier a strong area of support. There was the first significant high in the 2023-2024 bull (after the ETF approval) and also the deepest dip of the late 2024-25 bull market (the "MtGox scare" in July/August 2024).

[Cheema02]

I have advised before that I am not interested in Bitcoin at $63k. It may 3x from this price next bull run top but why invest into Bitcoin for a 3x return when top alts will 5-10x from current prices.

Even XRP for example, will likely 5x from current price when Bitcoin hits a new high in a few years so id rather buy XRP for the better returns.

Which of the top altcoins actually did 5x to 10x in the last bull run where Bitcoin went to $126k? Also, what makes you think that Bitcoin will only 3x from its bottom in the upcoming bull run? We can't be sure whether the current price can be the bottom or not, it could even drop to $40k in the worst case scenario, and from there, it can easily 5x and reach $200k in the upcoming bull run. In the last bear market, Bitcoin's bottom was $16k, and it reached $126k, so it almost did 8x from the bottom, so even if it doesn't do that much, I'm pretty sure it can still do better than altcoins.

I'm not saying alt coins are useless, I know that a lot of alt coins have great potential, but I didn't see most of them perform the way Bitcoin did in the recent bull run, so I don't expect much from them. Besides, the trust we have on Bitcoin can never be put into alt coins. I wouldn't use more than 20% of my overall portfolio on alt coins because I know that even if they have good potential, they can't be trusted as much as Bitcoin, so Bitcoin deserves the first place for me, always.

[JamesDaniel90]

I have advised before that I am not interested in Bitcoin at $63k. It may 3x from this price next bull run top but why invest into Bitcoin for a 3x return when top alts will 5-10x from current prices.

Even XRP for example, will likely 5x from current price when Bitcoin hits a new high in a few years so id rather buy XRP for the better returns.

Which of the top altcoins actually did 5x to 10x in the last bull run where Bitcoin went to $126k? Also, what makes you think that Bitcoin will only 3x from its bottom in the upcoming bull run? We can't be sure whether the current price can be the bottom or not, it could even drop to $40k in the worst case scenario, and from there, it can easily 5x and reach $200k in the upcoming bull run. In the last bear market, Bitcoin's bottom was $16k, and it reached $126k, so it almost did 8x from the bottom, so even if it doesn't do that much, I'm pretty sure it can still do better than altcoins.

I'm not saying alt coins are useless, I know that a lot of alt coins have great potential, but I didn't see most of them perform the way Bitcoin did in the recent bull run, so I don't expect much from them. Besides, the trust we have on Bitcoin can never be put into alt coins. I wouldn't use more than 20% of my overall portfolio on alt coins because I know that even if they have good potential, they can't be trusted as much as Bitcoin, so Bitcoin deserves the first place for me, always.

Hbar did 8x , XRP 5x, CRO 6x, Sol 25x , these are just the ones i know of I'm sure a few others did at least 5x.

The return for bitcoin this coming cycle all depends how low it goes this year, if it does fall down to $40k then yes it can 5x from there and hit $200k in a few years.

I dont think it will go down to $40k, maybe $50k but lets see what the next few months bring.

[CryptoBuds]

Which of the top altcoins actually did 5x to 10x in the last bull run where Bitcoin went to $126k? Also, what makes you think that Bitcoin will only 3x from its bottom in the upcoming bull run? We can't be sure whether the current price can be the bottom or not, it could even drop to $40k in the worst case scenario, and from there, it can easily 5x and reach $200k in the upcoming bull run. In the last bear market, Bitcoin's bottom was $16k, and it reached $126k, so it almost did 8x from the bottom, so even if it doesn't do that much, I'm pretty sure it can still do better than altcoins.

I'm not saying alt coins are useless, I know that a lot of alt coins have great potential, but I didn't see most of them perform the way Bitcoin did in the recent bull run, so I don't expect much from them. Besides, the trust we have on Bitcoin can never be put into alt coins. I wouldn't use more than 20% of my overall portfolio on alt coins because I know that even if they have good potential, they can't be trusted as much as Bitcoin, so Bitcoin deserves the first place for me, always.

Hbar did 8x , XRP 5x, CRO 6x, Sol 25x , these are just the ones i know of I'm sure a few others did at least 5x.

The return for bitcoin this coming cycle all depends how low it goes this year, if it does fall down to $40k then yes it can 5x from there and hit $200k in a few years.

I dont think it will go down to $40k, maybe $50k but lets see what the next few months bring.

If you measure from the bottom of the previous bear market, many altcoin delivered x5-x10 return, and some even made x30-x50, such as KAS, INJ, or Render. The craziest case was probably OM, which went up around x90-x100.

However, compared to its previous ATH, not many altcoin have reached a new ATH like Bitcoin has. Most alts had strong rallies, but very few managed to break their previous ATH. This is a major difference between BTC and alts in the last cycle. It shows how important the entry price is in determining your return.

The truth is that Bitcoin won't be able to deliver better returns than some alts, but it's safer and more guaranteed.

[JamesDaniel90]

Which of the top altcoins actually did 5x to 10x in the last bull run where Bitcoin went to $126k? Also, what makes you think that Bitcoin will only 3x from its bottom in the upcoming bull run? We can't be sure whether the current price can be the bottom or not, it could even drop to $40k in the worst case scenario, and from there, it can easily 5x and reach $200k in the upcoming bull run. In the last bear market, Bitcoin's bottom was $16k, and it reached $126k, so it almost did 8x from the bottom, so even if it doesn't do that much, I'm pretty sure it can still do better than altcoins.

I'm not saying alt coins are useless, I know that a lot of alt coins have great potential, but I didn't see most of them perform the way Bitcoin did in the recent bull run, so I don't expect much from them. Besides, the trust we have on Bitcoin can never be put into alt coins. I wouldn't use more than 20% of my overall portfolio on alt coins because I know that even if they have good potential, they can't be trusted as much as Bitcoin, so Bitcoin deserves the first place for me, always.

Hbar did 8x , XRP 5x, CRO 6x, Sol 25x , these are just the ones i know of I'm sure a few others did at least 5x.

The return for bitcoin this coming cycle all depends how low it goes this year, if it does fall down to $40k then yes it can 5x from there and hit $200k in a few years.

I dont think it will go down to $40k, maybe $50k but lets see what the next few months bring.

If you measure from the bottom of the previous bear market, many altcoin delivered x5-x10 return, and some even made x30-x50, such as KAS, INJ, or Render. The craziest case was probably OM, which went up around x90-x100.

However, compared to its previous ATH, not many altcoin have reached a new ATH like Bitcoin has. Most alts had strong rallies, but very few managed to break their previous ATH. This is a major difference between BTC and alts in the last cycle. It shows how important the entry price is in determining your return.

The truth is that Bitcoin won't be able to deliver better returns than some alts, but it's safer and more guaranteed.

Agreed. Bitcoin is a lot safer, so if you have a decent amount of money to invest when it does fall down to $50-55k next month then it is worth it as should 4x from there next few years.

But if you only have $1-2k to invest, is it really worth investing in Bitcoin for a 4x? Not for me. Id want something that can give me a 10x return and thats why i turn to altcoins.

[CryptoBuds]

Agreed. Bitcoin is a lot safer, so if you have a decent amount of money to invest when it does fall down to $50-55k next month then it is worth it as should 4x from there next few years.

But if you only have $1-2k to invest, is it really worth investing in Bitcoin for a 4x? Not for me. Id want something that can give me a 10x return and thats why i turn to altcoins.

The decision is yours, and I respect that. But I hope you know what you're doing and the consequences you may have to face if something goes wrong. Because as we all know, alts have higher profit potential, but they're extremely risky, not just simply risky. There's no guarantee that ETH or SOL will recover in the next bull market, let alone other alts.

Everything comes at a price. Higher return mean higher risk, and vice versa.

[yudi09]

If the 4 year cycle is still to continue and you compare it to previous cycles then Bitcoin will bottom in roughly 11 weeks and i am curious to hear how low we all think it will go?

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

Take immediate action to buy before the market changes. If you wait for the lowest price, based on analytical data that reaches 60% to 70%, which finds the bottom price in the $44,000-$50,000 range, it's uncertain whether the planned funds will be used to wait that long. Eleven months, approaching a year, can be a very long time in terms of waiting. Even DCA, even 11 weeks, didn't feel like it.
I believe in a Bitcoin price drop or bottom after reaching its ATH, but the calculations still make me question whether Bitcoin's price will go that low.

[philipma1957]

If the 4 year cycle is still to continue and you compare it to previous cycles then Bitcoin will bottom in roughly 11 weeks and i am curious to hear how low we all think it will go?

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

so July 23 plus 77 days is October 8th I will keep your guess in mind.


But this bullpen was the first to hit an ATH before the 1/2ing so it could very well be you are off by months.

[OgNasty]

Going by history and expectations, I think $46K is still a good target. That’s the target I expected when we were at all time highs and I have seen nothing but a little inflation to influence it. While I’m not sure if waiting for the exact bottom is a good idea, I do think people would be wise to get a DCA in place. The next six months will likely provide an amazing buying opportunity. Buy all the way through and don’t miss it.

[dzonikg28]

Going by history and expectations, I think $46K is still a good target. That’s the target I expected when we were at all time highs and I have seen nothing but a little inflation to influence it. While I’m not sure if waiting for the exact bottom is a good idea, I do think people would be wise to get a DCA in place. The next six months will likely provide an amazing buying opportunity. Buy all the way through and don’t miss it.

$46k would be a rough ride, but do you think that institutional support at that point would outweigh retail support? Accessibility has become much better for them, regulatory frameworks have become clearer, and from my own experience I think these negative rallies have given retail investors quite some chills. I must confess, me included.

I agree that DCA makes a lot of sense then, but there will still be lots of people waiting for a lower low and then missing the rebound. For big institutional investors I think an entry point at $46k would be a golden opportunity.

Would Strategy get into trouble in the mid 40s range? If they were to decide to sell BTC in a moment like that, I think it could send bitcoin further south.

[d5000]

Would Strategy get into trouble in the mid 40s range? If they were to decide to sell BTC in a moment like that, I think it could send bitcoin further south.

No, as long as the bottom happens in 2026 or early to mid 2027, then Strategy is perfectly fine due to their 3500 BTC sale which covers the whole crypto winter.

But to those speculationg about a bottom in that area in late 2026, take into account:

If 46k is the bottom (or 48, or 50, or 44 ...), this also means that 60k is still a quite good price. In many cases the best prices didn't last for too long (the extreme was the 2015 bottom, when it only dipped for one day below 150$ and then it got fast back into the $200 area, i.e. most people missed a 30% additional dip).

So if you are expecting that price, I'd recommend to put your orders in place now, and not in October, and above all: not move them. Because human psychology is a b*tch: If we hover around 60k some weeks more and then get a low around or below 50k in October, many will think that it will go to 30k or so. And many of those could miss the real bottom. It's also possible the bottom arrives in August or September, because of "cycle frontrunning".

On the other hand you could miss the bottom also because you're too greedy, because there is no law saying that the bottom must be at 46k. I would thus start buying in the high 50s (or even low 60s) and increase the orders to the downside.

tl;dr: it's not important to catch the bottom exactly, if Bitcoin still is in a long term bull, then it's important to buy before the next FOMO phase at >100k

[Bitcoin_people]

If the 4 year cycle is still to continue and you compare it to previous cycles then Bitcoin will bottom in roughly 11 weeks and i am curious to hear how low we all think it will go?

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

Although it will be very difficult to predict the price of Bitcoin in 11 weeks according to the 4-year cycle, many are determining its different prices in different ways. However, I think that if the price of Bitcoin reaches its lowest, it may not fall below $50k, if it is impossible to say with such a guarantee, but it may be the lowest. Although the price of Bitcoin has not been increasing very much in recent times and is not going to go down very much. However, those who have predicted that it may fall to a minimum of $35k, this is very unlikely. I think it is not possible because the market is above it. According to the current market situation, if the market price moves in a better direction in the coming days, then the position of Bitcoin will improve a little more. In that case, if we can gradually stay above $80k this year, then the minimum price will not come so low if there is a fall.