BitMex exchange going down - A sign of a bull run coming?

[Jegileman]

So what do you think about this pattern? is this something that must continue in every bear season leading to the markets bull season or are all this closures a mere coincidence?

What I could see from this and come to a conclusion about is that not all exchange will remain forever functioning, not because the market is not conducive for them, but because as it gets competitive, it gets more intense for them to actually be able to sustain themselves and compete with several of their competitors.

Why this always happen during the bear market is just a coincidence or maybe some kind of market conditions that they couldn’t handle and it’s better they stop operating and shutdown their operation gradually to avoid legal action if customer funds gets missing. The bull run will still come, but this is not the perfect signs to show that it is coming.

[Franctoshi]

I don't really think this causes the market bottom which starts the bull run but just correlates with the market bottom. The fact that we've had some of these events about some exchanges shutting down during the bear market does not signify that it's about the bear market bottoms. To me, why it does seem so is that after those exchanges shut down, the market saw its bottom and bull market kicked in because if you understand how the market players or the whales operate, then you would know they usually love to take advantage of such situations, meaning when the weak hands are panic selling or offloading their bags on events like this, the whales will be sweeping the market and loading up thier bags.

For the exchanges to be shutting down, especially the centralized ones, the bear market isn't as favorable to their business as during a bull run. And if, as an exchange, you don't have backup plans to keep your exchange running during a bear market aside from revenues you make off trading volumes, then the resultant effect is that you're most likely going to be forced to shut down because of low revenue to pay your staff. Because during a bear market season, the activities on exchanges usually decline.

[noorman0]

So what do you think about this pattern? is this something that must continue in every bear season leading to the markets bull season or are all this closures a mere coincidence?

It's just a coincidence.
Judging by the history of the suspension of the exchanges and financial services mentioned by the OP during the previous bear season, they were actually under the same corporate roof and involved in mismanagement cases. If no one had detected their activities, they wouldn't have shut down.

This season, Mica's regulatory transition under a new regime has actually impacted more services, as they could potentially lose more market share.

[Somegory]

The bull market of 2022 to 2025 is different, retailers are the ones who should be filling the wholes of these fragile online crypto exchanges but retailers bailed out in 2024 and went for precious metal and Gold.

The reserves starting not to look good at the point, Bitmart had their day coming, the signs were already there since the past months already, and just because these exchanges are dead doesn't mean we have bottomed too, few more event can still play out.

Anything under top 5 crypto exchanges for me I am not touching, I do hope that people will learn from this, so many crypto coins have died in the last months or so and it might not be over yet.

[OgNasty]

I wouldn't say that exchanges failing is a sign that a new bull market is coming, but it is a sign that there is beginning to be blood in the streets.  That typically means that now is a good time to be accumulating.  It also could mean we are in the worst of a bad market and the drops will be the largest.  I'd say away from any major buys for a while until it is clear that the bottom has been reached, but I would also feel good about regular DCA buys to capture low prices through the dip until we eventually do recover.

[justdimin]

The bull market of 2022 to 2025 is different, retailers are the ones who should be filling the wholes of these fragile online crypto exchanges but retailers bailed out in 2024 and went for precious metal and Gold.

The reserves starting not to look good at the point, Bitmart had their day coming, the signs were already there since the past months already, and just because these exchanges are dead doesn't mean we have bottomed too, few more event can still play out.

Anything under top 5 crypto exchanges for me I am not touching, I do hope that people will learn from this, so many crypto coins have died in the last months or so and it might not be over yet.

Not all of them, we had a period where they did get gold, but this wasn't just full on bitcoin investors, remember there are investors of gold that are not interested in Bitcoin. So don't assume that all Bitcoin investors sold and got into gold, some must have, but not all.

The logic OP makes is not really that weird, there is a connection there, but he forgets the eternal truth, correlation is not causation. If you eat badly, you get fat, that is true, but if you make one shot in basketball, it doesn't mean all of them will also go in. Correlation is not causation, and OP is mistaken on that part. But he could of course also be right, because I do expect it to hit bottom soon and we will probably see it recover and do better eventually, and I doubt it will take too much longer now, maybe another month or two but that's it.