Here in the Philippines, we can really feel it whenever fuel prices increase. It does not affect only people who own cars because transportation costs also increase, and later we notice higher prices for food and other basic needs.
I hope the current ceasefire will continue and lead to real peace. But based on what I have observed, fuel prices rise quickly whenever there is conflict, while price reductions at the pump usually take more time. So even if crude oil becomes cheaper, I am not expecting a big rollback immediately.
Just today, prices of fuel here in our country increased yet again, and it's nearly going back to 100 PHP ($1.63) yet again. Before the war started, it was around $1.09 and it went to as high as $2.44 which is a huge problem for the transport industry. Now we're nearing to that high prices again.
As for the ceasefire, I don't think that it will happen at the nearest time possible, and if it happens, it will just probably be as weak as the first ceasefire that happened a few weeks ago. Heck, that can't even be called ceasefire because both countries are still bombing each other. It just lessen the amount of strikes, and TBH, I don't expect something good that will happen even though there will be a ceasefire. What they need is an agreement, but it seems like Iran will not have any talks to the US anymore... at least for now.
As for the price of Crude Oil, right now the war is becoming much worse as Saudi Arabia is on the mix already, so I expect that there will be more price increase in the future. Unfortunately, there's nothing that we can do about it, but to endure the pain, and adjust our expenses into it since majority of us here are using oil in whatever way possible.