It's possible, even somewhat likely, that the US in 10-15 years will reconsider its stance on CBDCs if the financial landscape changes significantly due to the EU digital euro and other CBDCs. [...]
I really don't see it happening. Why? Because there's no need. CBDCs make as much sense as having a national operating system or a national texting app. There are many great products that do exactly what a CBDC would do, and they are available right now.
Governments should only do things that cannot (or should not) be done by the private sector. What would be the advantage of a CBDC versus one of the many excellent stablecoin products out there?
If DeFi also declines (which is likely if they don't find use cases for the real world) then stablecoins could indeed have a hard time eventually, but that will probably not be due to CBDCs.
I agree that DeFi will decline, although we may not really notice because they will keep calling a bunch of things "DeFi" even though they will be ordinary financial products. A bank might offer a security for sale that represents some instrument, and because the database they internally store the positions in is a "decentralized architecture" (good luck defining that exactly for legal purposes),
they currently get to bypass a bunch of regulations.
Why will that decline? Because regulators are starting to close the "decentralized" loophole, and regulators are, rightly, seeing that the data storage mechanism is totally irrelevant.
Of course, this all uncovers a hard truth about Bitcoin and the blockchain architecture generally: it stopped being necessary about 15 years ago. Bitcoin could sit in an Oracle database guarded by Citibank and it would be perfectly legal just like it is now. Decentralization was critical to get Bitcoin off the ground, but its popularity basically obsoleted its own architecture.
As for stablecoins, they are currently used as low-regulation bank accounts. Once the regulations equalize those with traditional accounts (and banks offer APIs to their accounts that allow them to mimic stablecoins), then I too can seem them becoming less relevant.
The exception would be a stablecoin that does things that no other form of transfer can currently do, which is scale to every single payment in the planet so cheaply that anonymous transactions can be offered for free, and allow transactions as small as a penny be totally viable--and also settle the transaction in a few milliseconds instead of seconds or minutes.
That kind of system will be in demand
forever.
