Strong Hands are Holding, are we set for the Button?

[asriloni]

Are the strong hands holding while the weak ones are selling at a loss? Is this the actual scenario?

I've seen so many news about btc OGs who being bitcoin early holders sold their bag and they made billions of ROI. Would you call them sold their bag at a loss? It seems that scenario weak hands sold at lose seemed opposite to the reality happened in the market.

The early adopters of Bitcoin are still holding their assets to this time will not selling, while the weak investors are selling at a loss, not being able to afford holding for a longer period of time.

You meant Saylor who has sold his btc at a loss instead of making profit?

Now, if the same holders have to continue in this process without selling and eventually imagine a 30-day change, does it signify we are already going to experience the bottom?


https://x.com/i/status/2082535180770725903

It doesn't mark us if we're reaching the bottom. Don't forget winner sold at peak, then buy at bottom while losers buy at peak sold at the bottom. It means holding is not making the market bullish. It may be people who gettin trapped at peak, then they wait for the price to reach another high.

So holders can't be used as a sign if we're reaching the bottom. Market is working much more complicated than that coz numerous factors have their own role to drive the price up and down.

Based on that i believe that tweet is misleading.

[BALIK]

Nobody knows what the bottom price will be and from my experience the last bear market in 2022, the bottom was in November. This time it can happen before or after November which means that the price will still dip below $57k.

You said the price will still dip below $57k, which is a must to happen before the end of the bear market, while I expect the worst from now till the end of the year; there is still no assurance, on the other hand, that the bear won’t cross to 2027. We might as well not have seen the lowest the market can go yet this year, but I just can’t make a statement like it’s guaranteed.

Based on market history, the bottom is usually formed in the final months of the bear year. If the market pattern repeat once again, we may be entering the final stage of the bear market. That would also mean that the worst could happen at any time between now and the end of the year.

However, what guarantees that the pattern will repeat exactly as it did in previous cycles? No, there is no guarantee that the market will behave exactly like previous cycles. Therefore, we shouldn't treat it as a fixed rule for the current cycle. Having contingency plan would be a better approach.

[Mame89]

The major reasons why some people are selling at lost is as a reason of impatient because whenever they don't have alternatives plans before jumping into trading could affect them seriously, that is why it is said to have backup food or cushion fund saved just to serve it's purpose. Of course, those who understand what the asset they are investigating on would know that it's important to hold for specific duration of time and years but those who doesn't know where the market is driving to may possibly dump to secure their capital first.

Yes, that's right. Impatience a lack of planning, and a reserve fund often lead people to panic sell at a loss while others hesitate and choose to secure their capital. But those who understand Bitcoin, especially its cycles tend to hold on longer. So, the choice is ultimately ours in the market, there will always be sellers and buyers, and this will continue to happen. As you said, those with weak mentality will sell, but those with strong mentality will capitalize on the panic of others.

Clearly no one can predict the lowest point for Bitcoin. Our job is to continue doing DCA, especially since the current price makes sense for the long term. Furthermore, even if there is another decline we should still consider it an opportunity to continue accumulating Bitcoin. Bitcoin current low is $57k, and there's a possibility it could drop below that. My point is, rather than focusing on charts it's better to consistently buy than guessing peak and bottom prices.

[$crypto$]

Strong hands hold.
Weak hands sell.
Wise hands buy the dip.


After all this IS a discount. Price is under the intrinsic value and despite what the market sentiment may look like at times, the value is higher and price should catch up. That means the current price and any possible lower price is a great discount and an excellent opportunity to purchase some coins.
Imagine this is late 2017 (September) and price has crashed from $5k down to $2.5k providing a great discount for buyers some of whom are complaining that price ain't gonna go up ever again

In other words, don't worry about the bottom too much. Today nobody cares about $2.5k having been the bottom or not, now that price is 2400% higher.

The 2018 bearish cycle of decline is about 80% more --- the 2022 bearish cycle is 70% - - - the current cycle of decline is over 50%, at least that's my memory after reading the article.

What is clear is that big big diskos have already happened, only now take advantage of the opportunity to buy more sat as the price drops dramatically.

About the increase later I am sure it can return more than 200% if you buy at the current price, so for those who don't need to worry, think for a moment don't rush because you see a sluggish market.

[Die_empty]

Based on market history, the bottom is usually formed in the final months of the bear year. If the market pattern repeat once again, we may be entering the final stage of the bear market. That would also mean that the worst could happen at any time between now and the end of the year.

However, what guarantees that the pattern will repeat exactly as it did in previous cycles? No, there is no guarantee that the market will behave exactly like previous cycles. Therefore, we shouldn't treat it as a fixed rule for the current cycle. Having contingency plan would be a better approach.

Some crypto analysts are saying the the four year circle is over. Which means we might not be able to predict the current situation with past market cycles. Some of the reasons why they said the cycle might have been distorted are because of the approval of the ETF and Trump's promotion of Bitcoin during the last elections. The price of Bitcoin skyrocketed during these periods, and the price dropped when it was supposed to increase.

This might not be a challenge to long-term hodlers because they will keep their coins regardless of the market conditions. But traders would have to be cautious because there is no certainty that last year's situation would repeat itself this season.

[Slow death]

Are the strong hands holding while the weak ones are selling at a loss? Is this the actual scenario?

I still wonder to this day: when someone decides to hodl Bitcoin, what was the point of keeping Bitcoin for a lifetime without spending it on themselves in the real world? For example, someone bought Bitcoin in 2020 for $20,000, held it until 2026, saw the price reach $125,000 which would give them a 5x profit, but chose not to sell. Now the price has dropped to $60,000, and they would only make a 3x profit if they sold.

But this person doesn't want to sell, so they will wait another 4 years. But in 2028 this person dies, never having used their Bitcoins for themselves. I wonder what the point is of doing that? By this I mean that I don't see much sense in those people who bought many years ago just holding it without using at least some of it. With the influx of many wealthy individuals, the price of Bitcoin will not experience those large 5x or 10x increases in the coming years, in my opinion. News of a US war against Iran, negative news about Coldcard are causing fear in the cryptocurrency market. At least for now, we will see selling.

[Oasisman]

Nobody knows what the bottom price will be and from my experience the last bear market in 2022, the bottom was in November. This time it can happen before or after November which means that the price will still dip below $57k.

You said the price will still dip below $57k, which is a must to happen before the end of the bear market, while I expect the worst from now till the end of the year; there is still no assurance, on the other hand, that the bear won’t cross to 2027. We might as well not have seen the lowest the market can go yet this year, but I just can’t make a statement like it’s guaranteed.

Most likely we are not going to have below $50,000 this bear season, so we should erase it from our mentality that they won't be further fall, but there is the only going to be a limit to how far it could go, if you follow up with the discussion over this thread and what others have suggested as well, you can discover that comparing other previous years market fall with what we are expected this season could only place a minor difference from the previous ones in terms of percentage fall in the bear season.

The current Bitcoin price actions does not show any possibility of falling below $50k. Last month, it did not break the support level and just moved sideways around the $61k-$65k region. So, the current technical structure may suggest it is indeed unlikely. However, I still won't rule out the possibility. Market cycles aren't always the same. You have to watch out when Bitcoin starts breaking the support level.
Anyway, I think you're among the stronghands? That means, if Bitcoin falls below that level, it won't really bother you. In fact, it is a great opportunity for more stacking.

[Jewan420]

There is no specific word on the price of Bitcoin, we are still in a situation that is very close to the lowest price. From this situation, we could see another decline that could break through that level and reach a lower level. The opposite is also possible, maybe Bitcoin could start to rise from the current price.

But my guess is that we are going to go deeper. Maybe that level will be around $50k or even lower. If it breaks through the $57k level and enters further down, then I see the possibility of it reaching around $50k.

[Bright0515]

Impatience a lack of planning, and a reserve fund often lead people to panic sell at a loss while others hesitate and choose to secure their capital. But those who understand Bitcoin, especially its cycles tend to hold on longer.

Without a proper plan, there's no way an investor will not sell when there's a decline in the price. The secret most investors don't know is that they literally need patience if they really want to hold Bitcoin for the long term. And a proper plan includes having emergency funds and investing through discretionary income; anything outside investing from your discretionary income is a gamble. One reason why most people sell their Bitcoin whenever there's a decline is that they invest with money for their survival. The truth about Bitcoin is that it's not a get-rich-quick scheme, so people joining the crypto space because they want to make a quick profit through Bitcoin are misunderstanding what cryptocurrency (Bitcoin) really is.

[Woodie]

Are we saying this chart shows all hodlers and how coins are moving in and out? I don't think so.. can these charts 100© show hodlers in the markets, negative!!

And looking closely at this, this is more of a liquidity graph 📉 📈 than it is a hodlers tale chart! If anything this looks like a volume profile I tend to use on tradingview than what  it claims to show. The blue bar chart 📊 like clearly showing a ranging market is showing liquidity is being pumped in but the tag of war between buyers and sellers keeps happening, and price will only break out of this one either of them wins.

[Cryptoprincess101]

However, we can't say that 55% might be the number for this year, or 57k is the bottom. And if we look again at the historical logs, the final and the lowest low could be seen in Q4 2026.

I agree with you because the bear market is expected to run till the 4th quarter of this year, so we are going to see more bottom before the price will rally and begin an uptrend probably in the first quarter of next year. From the analysis you just made, we should be expecting further dip starting from the month of August since there is no buying momentum that would have created a support for the price to still remain around $60k. We have already seen the price falling gradually today which is to say that August is going to be a very bloody month.

The current Bitcoin price actions does not show any possibility of falling below $50k.

The price can still fall below $50k if the market experience more dips in the month of August, before the end of the year it can fall below $50k because the month of September is known to be a poor performing month for bitcoin if we take a look at previous price performance and am also thinking that there may be no UPtober in the month of October since we are in a bear season. Roughly, from the month of August till December is set for the bottom of this bear market.

[CageMabok]

You are right, each bear market do have a unique way of presenting the market that may be slightly different from the previous ones, just as from what you have explained above, it is more likely we have achieve this and it will be that more is to come over the time, but one thing I am more convinced about is regarding the bear market, which is not ending now, this shows that there's high probability of having something still below $57,000 but mostly not below $50,000 before we completely exited.

The bear market is certainly not over and will likely continue, as we see the market trend remaining stagnant at $63,000 to $65,000. However, I also don't deny that the price you mentioned could return to the market this year, although I don't believe Bitcoin will immediately return below $60,000 in the near future. However, when it comes to the market's potential impact on Bitcoin's price, any speculation is still open, as it's based on the influence of changes in Bitcoin buying and selling within the market over time.

[jossiel]

But my guess is that we are going to go deeper. Maybe that level will be around $50k or even lower. If it breaks through the $57k level and enters further down, then I see the possibility of it reaching around $50k.

There is a lot of uncertainty in the market lately.

But the price remains strong staying above $60k, it's just close to the price that you're saying. It's weekend then, the price should go further lower but the recovery could be after a couple of days.

Even so, there's the opportunity that we have to buy if we can so, that you won't see yourself as a weak hands for selling.

[alastantiger]

You are right, each bear market do have a unique way of presenting the market that may be slightly different from the previous ones, just as from what you have explained above, it is more likely we have achieve this and it will be that more is to come over the time, but one thing I am more convinced about is regarding the bear market, which is not ending now, this shows that there's high probability of having something still below $57,000 but mostly not below $50,000 before we completely exited.

What are the chances that we are not going to be go below $50k before the bear market ends, what the market needs to achieve this is just one major bad news that affects either the cryptocurrency market directly or indirectly through the world financial market and this causes the price of things to fall. If this happens then the cryptocurrency market will be affected and the price of bitcoin is going to fall and if this happen before the bear market is over then we can expect the price of Bitcoin to fall below $50k.

I am tired of the bear market already and I want it to stop but it is not looking like it is going to stop and that is why I think the price of Bitcoin is going to fall more. The only decision to take right now that is correct is to join the strong hands in holding as you have nothing to lose right now hence you have to hold or sell in losses and lose your Bitcoin to the strong hands in the market.

[Asuspawer09]

For me it was still a little early to say things like this because as time past there might be a sell outs that is going to happened, in my experience the waiting game takes a lot of the long term investors because they might change strategy and put money on the other assets, On the other hand it might be a good thing since it was a opportunity to reinvest for otther investors that is waiting for a good market price.

Right now im looking forward for a much lower market price because it is a good opportunity for me to still accumulate more Bitcoin and a much higher profit long term, Still I dont think that 60k is alreadycthe bottom, I thi k we can still go through 30k$ more.

[MarjorieZimmermanGinger]

The early adopters of Bitcoin are still holding their assets to this time will not selling, while the weak investors are selling at a loss, not being able to afford holding for a longer period of time. Now, if the same holders have to continue in this process without selling and eventually imagine a 30-day change, does it signify we are already going to experience the bottom?

The more people holding Bitcoin and not selling it, the better. Given that it's a tradable asset, there will undoubtedly be people buying and selling it. It's somewhat puzzling why some people are selling Bitcoin at a loss. If they understand Bitcoin's trajectory, they should be able to wait until the price is right to sell, thus avoiding unnecessary losses. No one knows for certain the bottom will be, but we should have a plan for buying, whether using the DCA strategy or another strategy that suits each individual.

If this bottom is passed, we will certainly miss out on buying at the best price, as the price may gradually improve and rebound upwards. That is also the reason why people implement the DCA strategy because they don't have to worry about waiting for the lowest point when buying Bitcoin, and investments can be made at a relaxed pace without having to think about the exact price.

[crwth]

Hmm. I think it's best to know what the actual value is that you have. It's mostly more about that instead of really relying on the market. That is where belief comes in as well because if you know that BTC could increase in price, then it's most likely that you can go through the bear markets.

The important thing is, as long as it's not a realized position already, you are good!
^{(this is what I'm thinking about most of the time  )}

[BALIK]

Based on market history, the bottom is usually formed in the final months of the bear year. If the market pattern repeat once again, we may be entering the final stage of the bear market. That would also mean that the worst could happen at any time between now and the end of the year.

However, what guarantees that the pattern will repeat exactly as it did in previous cycles? No, there is no guarantee that the market will behave exactly like previous cycles. Therefore, we shouldn't treat it as a fixed rule for the current cycle. Having contingency plan would be a better approach.

Some crypto analysts are saying the the four year circle is over. Which means we might not be able to predict the current situation with past market cycles. Some of the reasons why they said the cycle might have been distorted are because of the approval of the ETF and Trump's promotion of Bitcoin during the last elections. The price of Bitcoin skyrocketed during these periods, and the price dropped when it was supposed to increase.

This might not be a challenge to long-term hodlers because they will keep their coins regardless of the market conditions. But traders would have to be cautious because there is no certainty that last year's situation would repeat itself this season.

Regardless of what analysts say, the reality is that the 4 year cycle is still playing out, at least so far. However, what we cannot know is whether it will continue to follow the same pattern as previous cycles until the end of this one or suddenly change in the near future.

Many of us consider ourselves longterm investors, but in reality, we are holding because we expect the 4 year cycle to continue. Therefore, if that assumption turn out to be wrong, many investor will likely have to rethink their strategy.

[Iranus]

I am tired of the bear market already and I want it to stop but it is not looking like it is going to stop and that is why I think the price of Bitcoin is going to fall more. The only decision to take right now that is correct is to join the strong hands in holding as you have nothing to lose right now hence you have to hold or sell in losses and lose your Bitcoin to the strong hands in the market.

I do not know if you have been through any previous bear market. But compared with previous cycles, this year's bear market has been one of the mildest so far. Bitcoin has only fallen by about 50%, and that has only lasted about 9 months. Meanwhile, in previous cycles, Bitcoin dropped by 80-90%, and bear market lasted for more than a year, sometimes even longer.

Moreover, if you are a true long term investor, you should actually be happy if the bear market lasts longer instead of feeling tired of it. Because the longer it lasts and the deeper the price falls, the more opportunities you will have to buy at lower prices.

Unlike you, I even hope Bitcoin will fall further and that the market won't end anytime soon.

[lovesmayfamilis]

People with "strong hands" can be called those who are financially secure enough not to be afraid of periodic price fluctuations. Do they have "strong hands"? Yes, of course, it's just that their business is not based solely on investments. What can be said about those who are called small investors is that they are ordinary people who may be misinformed about Bitcoin cycles, or they lack patience, or even faith, because they cannot remain holders despite all the market turbulence.

Price predictions are also fascinating; they claim to be far-sighted, but again, in many cases it is very difficult to guess correctly.
🤷‍♀️

Therefore, people with "strong hands" have their own specific goal and price, after which they can think about selling. And very often these goals and prices are very high, so we see the resilience of these people in the fact that they are not embarrassed by falling prices.