My argument on why this might not be the beginning of the bull market

[d5000]

However, similar to the dotcom bubble pop where it affected much of the market, the AI bubble pop will be something similar. [...] Is your argument declaring that bitcoin will pump while the AI bubble, which will affect many countries, is going through a dumping crisis that might bring economies down?

I think I was quite clear in my last post: if the AI bubble causes a global recession, then it can affect Bitcoin negatively.

However, not even that is "so" clear. According to a very recent BlackRock report, they may be biased but have good mathematicians I believe, Bitcoin behaved in the last years more like gold and less like other stocks and commodities. It was thus a bit of a "contrarian" asset.

The Covid crisis has also shown that Bitcoin can pump (late 2020) in very difficult times globally. And Gold pumped in the last really major financial crisis (2007-2010).

But I also doubt the AI bubble pop will affect so many economies like the dotcom bubble. AI firms are concentrated in the US and China. Other countries' economies could even benefit if investors take money from the US tech stocks and put them into more solid, e.g. European, "value stocks". In this case I think Bitcoin can benefit.

On the Clarity act. The passage of this will bring a clearer framework for everyone and the cryptospace market where bitcoin also belongs. There is a danger if this is not passed because Gensler 2.0 might be an occurrence again on the SEC and the CFTC assuming that the next president is an anticrypto Democrat.

Have the "anticrypto Democrats" in any way affected the 2023-early 2024 pump caused by the ETFs? I think not. While Trump has for sure caused the late 2024 spike, the bull market was already raging much before, and there already had been an ATH even before the halving (something never occurred before).

I think it's altcoins who should worry about that if they're supervised by the SEC or the CFTC (which is the essence of the Clarity act), and not Bitcoin.

[MiF]

The real question isn't if this is a bull market or not, but what would make it a bull market? It takes a few days of good weather to make any day good. I would want to see bitcoin continue to be in the higher zone after all the excitement and then be maintained by consistent demand in the spot zone than mostly speculative leverage. The altcoin reaction might also be helpful confirmation. The higher Bitcoin goes, and the more liquid there is, and the more real buyers there are, the better the bull-market argument becomes. Until now, until it gets to the next phase, until it starts to repeat itself again, I think it's too soon to call it a new cycle. The direction of the price is important but so is the power behind it.

[buwaytress]

Was it a Trump thing? Didn't really care, but judging from dollar moves, I'd definitely thought it was unrelated to anything going on over there (it's actually marginally better for me to have a strong dollar since I convert everything in $ price back to my local currency even when selling BTC and p2p sellers always give a better price when USD is strong).

[bbc.reporter]

However, similar to the dotcom bubble pop where it affected much of the market, the AI bubble pop will be something similar. [...] Is your argument declaring that bitcoin will pump while the AI bubble, which will affect many countries, is going through a dumping crisis that might bring economies down?

I think I was quite clear in my last post: if the AI bubble causes a global recession, then it can affect Bitcoin negatively.

However, not even that is "so" clear. According to a very recent BlackRock report, they may be biased but have good mathematicians I believe, Bitcoin behaved in the last years more like gold and less like other stocks and commodities. It was thus a bit of a "contrarian" asset.

The Covid crisis has also shown that Bitcoin can pump (late 2020) in very difficult times globally. And Gold pumped in the last really major financial crisis (2007-2010).

But I also doubt the AI bubble pop will affect so many economies like the dotcom bubble. AI firms are concentrated in the US and China. Other countries' economies could even benefit if investors take money from the US tech stocks and put them into more solid, e.g. European, "value stocks". In this case I think Bitcoin can benefit.

On the Clarity act. The passage of this will bring a clearer framework for everyone and the cryptospace market where bitcoin also belongs. There is a danger if this is not passed because Gensler 2.0 might be an occurrence again on the SEC and the CFTC assuming that the next president is an anticrypto Democrat.

Have the "anticrypto Democrats" in any way affected the 2023-early 2024 pump caused by the ETFs? I think not. While Trump has for sure caused the late 2024 spike, the bull market was already raging much before, and there already had been an ATH even before the halving (something never occurred before).

I think it's altcoins who should worry about that if they're supervised by the SEC or the CFTC (which is the essence of the Clarity act), and not Bitcoin.

It might be not so clear for you, however, this does not mean that you or these biased mathematicians are correct heheheh. Also, how many times have we witnessed before that these smart experts of the world has been so wrong?

It is headshaking that many people in the forum jeer at the mainstream experts because they are sometimes wrong but they also use them as reference to support their arguments hehehehe.

Also, if the AI bubble pops, it will certainly cause fear on the market and cause less liquidity and more outflows, including outflows from the cryptospace market.

On the failure of passage of the Clarity act, you might correct that bitcoin might not be very much affected only if an anticrypto administration decides that he will not go after the whole cryptospace including bitcoin. The clearer framework that the Clarity act will bring on the cryptospace will be the protection from the possibility of a Gensler 2.0.

[GreatArkansas]

Was it a Trump thing? Didn't really care, but judging from dollar moves, I'd definitely thought it was unrelated to anything going on over there (it's actually marginally better for me to have a strong dollar since I convert everything in $ price back to my local currency even when selling BTC and p2p sellers always give a better price when USD is strong).

Same for me; it has an effect, but overall, this trump thing is just temporary. The volume and recent move of Bitcoin also include organic.
A jump from $63,000 to $79,000 is a bounce, not a new bull market. Bitcoin is still far under last year's high near $120,000+. I would wait for the price to hold after the news dies down, not trust a speech.

[EarnOnVictor]

There are reasons. The speech of the Donald that caused the Trump pump might be an action from the Republicans that they are becoming desperate because there are still very much chances of the popping of the AI bubble that will cause everything to have a big dump occurrence.

There is also very much the chance that the Clarity act will not get passage to the desk of the Donald for signing which might also cause a big dump for the cryptospace including bitcoin.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a major intervention to double long-term bond buybacks to $4 billion., why is this ratings to increase interest rates on September becoming higher?

It's obvious you are not rooted in the fundamentals of the market, clearly does not understand the structural economics of it, and absolutely mixing up facts. Trump might have played his politics, but that would have been futile, as usual, if not for the announcement by the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. And that was the only circular I received in that very minute from my fundamental signal notifier, and not Trump's. The major intervention to double long-term bond buybacks to $4 billion can't be undermined. It was the Bitcoin reviver, and nothing more.

Other reasons you attributed "do not hold waters" as well. Bitcoin would have continued in its abysmal/indecisive state regardless of the Trump's meeting with crypto executive, the Congress stance or even the interest rate decision. The double debt purchase is the deal breaker that, technically, clear out many long-term resistance levels, especially the much-watched monthly chart's EMA50 at $67,000. That resistance is huge, and by breaking it, has Bitcoin started buying, a bullish reversal? I say a capital YES! Unless that line is broken lower again, which is highly unlikely, even as we move closer to the bullish phase.

[OgNasty]

I don’t give Trump credit for this latest pump. It is pretty normal to have pumps in bear markets. Someone just felt the price was attractive enough to buy a lot. A lot of volatility is expected when market trends change, which we’re experiencing the beginnings of now. Just time and markets doing their thing.

[danherbias07]

I don't believe it's a bull market, either. It could be a correction. Too much dumping happened in the last few months, and I think it is just time for investors to come back. They saw that it's not going down anymore after the big dump, so buying power increased when they realized it could be the bottom of it.

For me, I can just congratulate those who bought at $60k per Bitcoin. Mission accomplished, and they can reap their rewards if they want to. Still, I won't do that because I trust that Bitcoin will not stop at this. There will be waves but in the long run, Bitcoin will be upward even if takes long and slow.