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Author Topic: Newbies for FPGAs  (Read 2404 times)
HendrikJan
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January 12, 2012, 12:50:32 AM
 #41

Thanks for the link.

I did stumble in that topic before and found the 6500 who i am interested in. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=40058
They are also willing to make new software for it but i find id scary that when they stop i have a useless FPGA or at least one with old software or with bugs.

Also the 580 dollar is a lot for 7.33 BTC a month max.
When taking 580/44=13.1 month before you have the money out when calculating with 6 dollar a BTC.
Also i don`t know how the difficulty will be in those 13 months.
Maybe you get less then 44 dollar a month and it will take you a lot longer.

Is there a list how the difficulty will be a few months from now and how long it will take to get a BTC?

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January 12, 2012, 12:59:12 AM
 #42

Is there a list how the difficulty will be a few months from now and how long it will take to get a BTC?

There are many online BTC calculators around. Try this one: http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator.php

There is no list of what future difficulty will be. No one knows that, and there is no way to predict. But you can run a few scenarios with the BTC calculator to see what effect it will have.

For a historic record of how difficulty has been evolving (for the past 15 months), check out the graphs here: http://bitcoinx.com/charts/

The above site will also tell you what the estimated NEXT difficulty change will be (currently estimated to go up 7% in about 10 days from now).


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January 12, 2012, 07:56:38 AM
 #43

I too like the look of the BFL unit mainly because of Mhash/$ this makes payback assuming constant difficulty and my power cost with 6$ per BTC 4.63 months, at 3$ per BTC it is 9.7 months. I realize that difficulty is dynamic and lower prices cause a drop in GPU because of profitibility and higher prices will undoubtedly push payback beyond 5 months. That having been said Since my DVR runs an ATOM and adding a different card for a GPU is impossible adding a power supply, MB, Ram, case and card I am sure it will get clost to 600$ (price of BFL unit) since I would not have to expense these things I can make a reasonable profit of 90% per BTC with my power and at 6 it is more then 95%. I am not saying the GPU folks are wrong. If you have a new enough computer it may cost you 0$ for one card (included) and a couple hundred for each additional card up to your third if you are lucky. My hardware is unprofitable or a little old for upgrades so building a rig or adding FPGA is about the same to me cost wise, but cheaper power wise. Again at current prices GPU and FPGA will pay back GPU likely faster, long term FPGA will have more profit per BTC.

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January 12, 2012, 03:46:07 PM
 #44

I too like the look of the BFL unit mainly because of Mhash/$ this makes payback assuming constant difficulty and my power cost with 6$ per BTC 4.63 months, at 3$ per BTC it is 9.7 months. I realize that difficulty is dynamic and lower prices cause a drop in GPU because of profitibility and higher prices will undoubtedly push payback beyond 5 months.

Your numbers are a bit off. At 832Mhash/s and a difficulty of 1250757 (current) and a BTC price of $6USD/BTC, you will generate exactly $4.01USD per day. At $0.10/kWh, electricity costs will eat $0.12USD per day, making your profit $3.89. That makes payback at current levels in 154 days (5.1 months).

In 9 days when difficulty increases by 10%, you will generate $3.49 per day, for a payback of 172 days (5.7 months).

Keep in mind that the above numbers are overly optimistic; the calculated payback periods assume difficulty and BTC price will remain relatively constant. More realistic, however, is that if the BTC price stays at the $6-$7 level, you can expect difficulty to rise further over the next few months. It is overly optimistic to expect/ssume difficulty will remain constant.

Back in September 2011 when BTC prices were hovering in the $5-$8 range (as they are now), difficulty was 1750000. That's 40% higher than today. It may be wise to assume that if today's BTC price holds for any length of time, difficulty is likely to reach 1750000 again.

And in that case, any payback period will be extended by 40%. So instead of 5-6 months, you are looking at 7-9 months. And that's *if* BTC price stays at $6/BTC during that period.

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January 13, 2012, 04:47:11 AM
 #45

I've had this in my bookmarks for quite some time.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=44891.0

Have never gotten around to reading it though.


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