BTC Sentiment Poll for September

[bbc.reporter]

If the drop in the probability of an interest rate rise was the main factor behind the mini-rally, then no wonder we are falling back below the $80k.
Especially if keeping rates at the current level (instead of increasing them) is more of a political decision rather than a purely economic one. I believe the CPI inflation to be announced is expected to increase. If the rise is not trivial, it would make sense if interest rates followed in the same direction.

Today we had a bit of a reality check. The price went down by 2.2% in the last 24h. S&P and Nasdaq also noted a dip, but it was much smaller.
The long-term bear trend is still in effect I guess.

Similar to a speculation that was made in another thread, the Federal Reserve chairman who is a friend of the Donald is only making it appear that they will increase the interest rate, however, he might only be giving time for the Donald's insiders to buy stocks and bitcoin while the price is low before he will announce that the interest rate will be unchanged heheheheh. There are also rumors that this insiders are also betting on Polymarket.

[arwin100]

If the drop in the probability of an interest rate rise was the main factor behind the mini-rally, then no wonder we are falling back below the $80k.
Especially if keeping rates at the current level (instead of increasing them) is more of a political decision rather than a purely economic one. I believe the CPI inflation to be announced is expected to increase. If the rise is not trivial, it would make sense if interest rates followed in the same direction.

Today we had a bit of a reality check. The price went down by 2.2% in the last 24h. S&P and Nasdaq also noted a dip, but it was much smaller.
The long-term bear trend is still in effect I guess.

Similar to a speculation that was made in another thread, the Federal Reserve chairman who is a friend of the Donald is only making it appear that they will increase the interest rate, however, he might only be giving time for the Donald's insiders to buy stocks and bitcoin while the price is low before he will announce that the interest rate will be unchanged heheheheh. There are also rumors that this insiders are also betting on Polymarket.

For now this is just another speculation, but its not new to us that there's really a inside trading cases happening in Polymarket. Although there's no evidence that there's a secret coordination with insider still those situations you have said is really possible to happened.

That's why there's huge risk for small people to ride betting on politics and other things on which those people got involve, because they might just became an easy victim for those people try or have capabilities to manipulate the result.

[Die_empty]

Similar to a speculation that was made in another thread, the Federal Reserve chairman who is a friend of the Donald is only making it appear that they will increase the interest rate, however, he might only be giving time for the Donald's insiders to buy stocks and bitcoin while the price is low before he will announce that the interest rate will be unchanged heheheheh. There are also rumors that this insiders are also betting on Polymarket.

Indicators that can be used to predict possible Fed interest rate decisions are not hidden. Data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), unemployment rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, housing market information, etc are all in the public domain.

With the US economy adding about 162,000 jobs last month and inflation still above the Fed's benchmark of 2%, it is likely that interest rates would be increased. Those who are betting on an interest rate hike on Polymarket are following the latest developments in the economy. Let's see if Trump, who is bent on keeping interest rates low, will influence the decisions of the Fed.

[STT]

Even if they do raise rates its most often only a quarter percent.  Back in the nineties or similar it could be half a percent or even more but that's a rarity now, seen so infrequently we are very likely to get anything seriously altering the situation in the next meeting.  The only thing that really curbs the market is if they start doing a rate rise at  every meeting, I would only guess that possible if they had already lost control of inflation.
   All of this is to say the Federal Reserve will always lag inflation, call it a mistake if you like but it happens every single time and the effect eases excessive debt and undermines currency.  Its quite ironic that the FED  represents the opposite of their stated mandate pretty much, some might argue it helps jobs but I doubt that also.

[okorieemmanuel]

So it really feels like everybody was happy about the last minute rally in BTC so I changed the poll into a simpler one since copying the one from August and July won't really suit the current market condition.

And again...  The poll isn't about getting it right.  It's how you honestly feel rn. 

Here's the monthly chart.  BTC up almost 25% for August.

This is what I anticipated. HOWEVER, the reaction on 82k , shows that Bitcoin price will undergo a deeper correction here. I'm waiting for it to occur. In other words both 83k and 60k should be tested.

[Dave1]

Even if they do raise rates its most often only a quarter percent.  Back in the nineties or similar it could be half a percent or even more but that's a rarity now, seen so infrequently we are very likely to get anything seriously altering the situation in the next meeting.  The only thing that really curbs the market is if they start doing a rate rise at  every meeting, I would only guess that possible if they had already lost control of inflation.
   All of this is to say the Federal Reserve will always lag inflation, call it a mistake if you like but it happens every single time and the effect eases excessive debt and undermines currency.  Its quite ironic that the FED  represents the opposite of their stated mandate pretty much, some might argue it helps jobs but I doubt that also.

But even if that quarter percent raises are somewhat the norm and could affect the market sentiments, not just crypto. But because our market is really volatile, the reaction to this kind of negative news are really magnified as if the hike are going to significantly affect the US economy.

However, in this market, maybe it will have a big impact, but for those who have been here before, we all know that this is a great opportunity to buy more and accumulate. We can't really stress that enough and we should take this chance to buy more. We should never be affected negatively by this news, instead turn it into something positive and scoop more Bitcoin again.

[Smack That Ace]

Even if they do raise rates its most often only a quarter percent.  Back in the nineties or similar it could be half a percent or even more but that's a rarity now, seen so infrequently we are very likely to get anything seriously altering the situation in the next meeting.  The only thing that really curbs the market is if they start doing a rate rise at  every meeting, I would only guess that possible if they had already lost control of inflation.
   All of this is to say the Federal Reserve will always lag inflation, call it a mistake if you like but it happens every single time and the effect eases excessive debt and undermines currency.  Its quite ironic that the FED  represents the opposite of their stated mandate pretty much, some might argue it helps jobs but I doubt that also.

But even if that quarter percent raises are somewhat the norm and could affect the market sentiments, not just crypto. But because our market is really volatile, the reaction to this kind of negative news are really magnified as if the hike are going to significantly affect the US economy.

However, in this market, maybe it will have a big impact, but for those who have been here before, we all know that this is a great opportunity to buy more and accumulate. We can't really stress that enough and we should take this chance to buy more. We should never be affected negatively by this news, instead turn it into something positive and scoop more Bitcoin again.

The issue isn't just whether the Fed hike by 0.25 or 0.5. Its where rates are now and how long they're gonna stay there. The current rate is 3.50-3.75 and another 0.25 hike would put it at 3.75-4.00. That is still pretty high, so we shouldnt just brush it off.

The economy is already under pressure from war and inflation. Raising rates in this situation could put even more pressure on the economy in the short term. So Im actually worried that the market could react much more strongly than we expect.

Whether rates will be raised or not still depends on the August CPI, which is due to be released on the 11th.

[tokeweed]

So it really feels like everybody was happy about the last minute rally in BTC so I changed the poll into a simpler one since copying the one from August and July won't really suit the current market condition.

And again...  The poll isn't about getting it right.  It's how you honestly feel rn. 

Here's the monthly chart.  BTC up almost 25% for August.

This is what I anticipated. HOWEVER, the reaction on 82k , shows that Bitcoin price will undergo a deeper correction here. I'm waiting for it to occur. In other words both 83k and 60k should be tested.

Wtf...  Back to 60k?  Are you trying to piss people off? 

I mean yeah, I'd hate to see it but would also want to for the lulz.    Anyway, judging from the poll it looks like people are gonna be late again if the tide has really turned and that it's now really the start of a new bull market.  But we'll see...  I understand why people are extra cautious.

[atookz]

I'd rate this month as neutral-leaning-optimistic. Yeah, BTC is around $77-79k right now, which is significantly weaker than the ATH that it reached last October at $128k, but a rally of ~25% over the past month or so has helped to give it some momentum.

The only thing that's making me a little bit nervous is the Fed — there's a high probability (around 66%) that they'll hike rates this month and that typically makes the crypto market hesitant heading into a rate-hike announcement. September will probably be choppy/sideways while everyone waits on the Fed's decision — after that, we'll see which way it's heading.

For the bulls/optimists, the price is still around $30k lower than it was a year ago, so you could still call this a 'recovery' phase, not a full bull run yet.

[sergiorus]

Wtf...  Back to 60k?  Are you trying to piss people off? 

I mean yeah, I'd hate to see it but would also want to for the lulz.    Anyway, judging from the poll it looks like people are gonna be late again if the tide has really turned and that it's now really the start of a new bull market.  But we'll see...  I understand why people are extra cautious.

This doesn't piss me off at all.

As a bull, I'd be more concerned if everyone was bullish and not a single soul expected one more fall/capitulation.

If anything, the panic sentiments on this pullback make me feel even more optimistic - that is simply how it always happened after the bottom was formed.

[pawel7777]

We're down -0.83% in the last 24h, but it's actually not so bad. Nasdaq got hit with -0.32% and S&P with nearly -0.60%, so it's a very modest drop for Bitcoin.
Previously, when stocks got hit, Bitcoin got hit much harder. Right now it's at similar levels. Or maybe it's just that the time of wild swings and super-high volatility is over, and this should be considered a big drop now.

The fear & greed index is still quite high at 72 out of 100 and showing greed. This means we could see bigger drops if any factors on the horizon shift investors' mood.

Personally, this whole rally above the $80k was not very convincing, and I expect we will dip below the $70k within the next month or so.

[nara1892]

This year began with a decline after last year's high in August and I think this is the right situation to start accumulating ahead of the Bitcoing halving in 2028.
Honestly I can't conclude that we have come out of the bear market, but last July was the beginning of a good rise and in fact this could be a sign of a reversal because I see that the moment of increase began after the price touched the support zone that occurred in september 2024, but I really can't be sure that this is the beginning for a rise in the long term because the bear market has been dominating since October last year.

[adultcrypto]

Personally, this whole rally above the $80k was not very convincing, and I expect we will dip below the $70k within the next month or so.

Bitcoin might have been very unwilling to stay above $80k as we have experienced sharp drop each time price headed above that figure. I don't know if it is a psychological figure for investors but I for certainty that bitcoin might just be doing that to wear people out and make those who bought below lose hope and sell because it actually continue the rise. That is to say that we are no over with the rise yet despite the delays and reduced momentum of the market.

[tokeweed]

Has BTC run out of sellers?  Nothing seems could bring it down to this bear's former lows anymore.    And judging from the poll, some of you guys might be sidelined and will be left watching if this thing starts trending up to 85k.

But let's see tho... I'm also unsure how this all pans out this year.

Edit:  Typos

[obuoma]

Has BTC run put of sellers?  Nothing seems could bring it down to this bear's former lows anymore.    And judging from the poll, some of you guys might be sidelined and will be left watching if this thing starts trending up to 85k.

But let's see tho... I'm also unsure how this all pans out this year.

BTC have confused people a lot this period but what is certain is that it is not going to see a low below $57k as many people were thinking. From this level, we can see aome compression followed by big rises rather than any deep correction. The price target of $85k is so small compared to where Bitcoin may be going to in the last quarters of this year orher things being equal. There are already people calling around $100k by end of the year and I see that as a possibility. 

[philipma1957]

I went for maybe.  but here is hoping for a jump to 85k soon and then 95k

and then 105k

October 85k

November 95k

Christmas 105k

New years 115k

and upwards

[okorieemmanuel]

So it really feels like everybody was happy about the last minute rally in BTC so I changed the poll into a simpler one since copying the one from August and July won't really suit the current market condition.

And again...  The poll isn't about getting it right.  It's how you honestly feel rn. 

Here's the monthly chart.  BTC up almost 25% for August.

This is what I anticipated. HOWEVER, the reaction on 82k , shows that Bitcoin price will undergo a deeper correction here. I'm waiting for it to occur. In other words both 83k and 60k should be tested.

Wtf...  Back to 60k?  Are you trying to piss people off? 

I mean yeah, I'd hate to see it but would also want to for the lulz.    Anyway, judging from the poll it looks like people are gonna be late again if the tide has really turned and that it's now really the start of a new bull market.  But we'll see...  I understand why people are extra cautious.

Dude!!! Draw the charts again. No matter the strategy you use, ( EXCEPT SPECULATION STRATEGY), IF bitcoin doesn't pass 83k , we're in for a terrible surprise. I'm not trying to scare anyone but you need to put all your investment knowledge on this Bitcoin scenario as well.

[AprilioMP]

Has BTC run put of sellers?  Nothing seems could bring it down to this bear's former lows anymore.    And judging from the poll, some of you guys might be sidelined and will be left watching if this thing starts trending up to 85k.

But let's see tho... I'm also unsure how this all pans out this year.

Not yet. They’re taking a short break and conserving their energy to do it again when they feel the time is right, since it’s still early in the second week of September.
The weekly chart was in the red during the first week, and this second week might also end up in the red. Even so, I speculate that the chart will move more sideways, so that when the week is summarized, it will still remain in the red zone.

[Swordsoffreedom]

BTC have confused people a lot this period but what is certain is that it is not going to see a low below $57k as many people were thinking. From this level, we can see aome compression followed by big rises rather than any deep correction. The price target of $85k is so small compared to where Bitcoin may be going to in the last quarters of this year orher things being equal. There are already people calling around $100k by end of the year and I see that as a possibility. 

Nothing is certain in market as volatile and unpredictable as Bitcoin. If you believe it could hit $100k by the end of the year, you should not rule out the possibility of new low just because you do not wanna see it happen.

Always keep in mind that the market goes the way it wants to go and not the way you want it to go. $100k is one possibility, but another deeper drop is just as possible. So it's better to be prepared for both scenarios instead of only choosing the one you wanna see.

[pooya87]

Has BTC run put of sellers?  Nothing seems could bring it down to this bear's former lows anymore.    And judging from the poll, some of you guys might be sidelined and will be left watching if this thing starts trending up to 85k.

But let's see tho... I'm also unsure how this all pans out this year.

Every time there is a rise that breaks a strong resistance, the sellers are discouraged. This time was no different and considering how strong the $70k resistance had gotten, the "discouragement" was strong. However, it didn't discourage all of them which is evident from the fact that we are now stuck under the next resistance and have run out of that momentum that was pushing the price up nicely.

Now we're playing jump rope with $80k

This year? We probably continue seeing more of going sideways with small rises after each of them.