Supercycle vibes are back

[d5000]

The point is that the problems are mounting and interest rates are already a big problem, a slight change won't affect much. Even if phytologically a raise can cause bigger panic as more people lose faith faster in the US economy and the US dollar.

I'm not sure if the interest rate really has something to do with Bitcoin's macro cycles. Since we have a Bitcoin-"risk-on/off" correlation (e.g. with stock markets, from about 2020 on), the correlations were mostly related to smaller price movements in the 5%+/- range, while bigger movements were related to adoption signals, e.g. Tesla's involvement in 2020, the China ban in early 2021 (Edited, wrong year) (-50% crash in the middle of bullish sentiment), El Salvador in late 2021 (which reverted the China ban sentiment), the ETFs in 2023/24, and Trump's campaign later in 2024.

My theory is that short term traders recurr to the "risk-on/risk-off" signals when there are no genuine Bitcoin adoption signals available - so they buy when there are signals for risk-on sentiment (like increasing stock market indices) and they sell if it becomes risk-off. And that's why we're seeing these correlations.

In 2026 the bearish movement was related heavily to the "Saylor collapse theory" in my opinion, and of course to profit taking after the 2024/25 bull. This means that an example for a "genuine signal" which could trigger a Supercycle would be a more solid business model by StrategyBTC. This is only an example however. I would prefer other signals, like a higher L2 (Lightning/Ark) adoption. One of these very genuine signals is perhaps already happening: Bitcoin is nearing record highs of transaction activity, having already almost surpassed the "Ordinals fad" in 2023/24. See this chart. Still some of the transactions are Runes, but they aren't the majority.

[Taskford]

The point is that the problems are mounting and interest rates are already a big problem, a slight change won't affect much. Even if phytologically a raise can cause bigger panic as more people lose faith faster in the US economy and the US dollar.

I'm not sure if the interest rate really has something to do with Bitcoin's macro cycles. Since we have a Bitcoin-"risk-on/off" correlation (e.g. with stock markets, from about 2020 on), the correlations were mostly related to smaller price movements in the 5%+/- range, while bigger movements were related to adoption signals, e.g. Tesla's involvement in 2020, the China ban in early 2024 (-50% crash in the middle of bullish sentiment), El Salvador in late 2021 (which reverted the China ban sentiment), the ETFs in 2023/24, and Trump's campaign later in 2024.

My theory is that short term traders recurr to the "risk-on/risk-off" signals when there are no genuine Bitcoin adoption signals available - so they buy when there are signals for risk-on sentiment (like increasing stock market indices) and they sell if it becomes risk-off. And that's why we're seeing these correlations.

In 2026 the bearish movement was related heavily to the "Saylor collapse theory" in my opinion, and of course to profit taking after the 2024/25 bull. This means that an example for a "genuine signal" which could trigger a Supercycle would be a more solid business model by StrategyBTC. This is only an example however. I would prefer other signals, like a higher L2 (Lightning/Ark) adoption. One of these very genuine signals is perhaps already happening: Bitcoin is nearing record highs of transaction activity, having already almost surpassed the "Ordinals fad" in 2023/24. See this chart. Still some of the transactions are Runes, but they aren't the majority.

Correct, since I think the real driving factor of that super cycles of Bitcoin is real signals of current adoption and not those other unrelated noises.

Also the on/off risk correlations will only matters here if those traders don't have have strong signals to follow. But if there's legitimate signals will come just like the progress happening on L2, having a credible reports towards the strategy of corporate entities and other more.

So most provably that the next move will not come with the cycles, but rather from continuous growth or adoption happening.

[drangos]

I believe the interesting angle here is that both theories can describe the current price action, the question is therefore what would provide falsification for either theory. Shallower Drawdowns are not necessarily an indicator of a supercycle, since Bitcoin's market structure is quite different from past cycles. If we do see another long period below the previous ATH with a smaller percentage drop, however, that would suggest that the cycle is not dead but is more muted. To me, the length of the next draw down will be as revealing as the size of the next crash.

[AVE5]

What if this time it's the same and the bear market could be also considered only an intermediate dip, and we're still in a bullish Supercycle?

Temporary bearishness is a normal event in a volatile market as bitcoin as long as prices are never stable neither to only continue going up trends.
It might also be in doubt that the $57,000 low in the month of June 2026 might not be the bottom for this cycle of market event.
I also find it weird to assume that what the market has proven so far recently on the up trends is a bull that prices can't be reversed down to lower prices to the bottom we've seen.
With $80,000 being s major resistance now, you shouldn't be surprised that the major decline hasn't come yet because considering the 4 years cycle, expectations is that the super bull cycle will come in 2028 and it's doubt able that this bullish trends will last until then.
There might still be market corrections. I don't really like to trust tracing past events that're unusual like the 2019 in question to predict the future events.

[d5000]

I believe the interesting angle here is that both theories can describe the current price action, the question is therefore what would provide falsification for either theory. [...] To me, the length of the next draw down will be as revealing as the size of the next crash.

I've already written a bit about this in earlier posts, but let's explore this question in a bit more detail.

1) The final falsification of the Supercycle would be imo a new low in November/December, even if the low is only marginally below the current 57-58k support zone. But even in its absence, no new ATH until later in 2027 would also imo falsify that theory. Let's think about an "exact deadline": The time from an ATH to a new ATH was normally about 2-3 years. The timeframe between the last ATH of an ending bull market and the first ATH of a new bull market however also in "normal" cycles was shorter every time:

- late 2013 to early 2017 [1]: more than 3 years
- December 2017 to December 2020: almost exactly 3 years
- November 2021 to March 2024: 2.5 years

This can be explained by frontrunning: expectatin of an ATH generates an ATH. I would thus expect a new "cyclic" ATH after about 2-2.5 years this time. This means that the deadline would be October 2027. Everything later in my opinion is a "normal cycle high".

2) Final falsification of the "normal cycle" theory would be an ATH in 2026 or early 2027 without new lows. This would be still a Supercycle.

There's thus a "hybrid territory" with an ATH between early 2027 and late 2027 where neither theory would be falsified, and everything depends how long the next bull market lasts.

It might also be in doubt that the $57,000 low in the month of June 2026 might not be the bottom for this cycle of market event.
I also find it weird to assume that what the market has proven so far recently on the up trends is a bull that prices can't be reversed down to lower prices to the bottom we've seen.

I never excluded that possibility. The OP is explicitly stating that both the "Supercycle" and the "lower volatility cycle" theories only are valid if there's no significantly lower low. I'd say a 70% crash compared to the 126k high (~38k) would cater to the narrative that "nothing has changed, Bitcoin is as cyclic and volatile as ever".

Regarding probabilities however I disgree. The 57k low was in a period of massive negative sentiment, with people believing that Strategy could go bankrupt and sell 800k Bitcoins at once. Now that this threat has waned away a bit and MSTR has again more solid numbers, it would take another doomsday scenario to create even a more negative sentiment to crash BTC down to 40k or so. For me, the likelihood is quite low. What we might see instead is another fight for the 57-60k area and even a sligthly lower low "to please the cyclists".

I don't really like to trust tracing past events that're unusual like the 2019 in question to predict the future events.

The question becomes then: what is "usual" in Bitcoin's price behavior? The so-called 4 year cycle, in all its purity (no ATH before halving, long crypto winter without approaching the old ATH) only appeared a single time: in the 2013-17 period. 2017-21 was already "unusual" with its strong 2019 bull and second 2020 bottom, and 2021-26 even more unusual with its early ATH. Thus I think it's legit to compare this intermediate bull with current price movements.

[1] in this case, there are various candidate ATHs, because MtGox and other exchanges had different ATHs in 2013.

[bbc.reporter]

Agreed on your argument. It also very much appears that there will be an increase of interest rates. According to Polymarket, the rating for an increase is on 81%.  Also, news outlets are beginning to report that this increase has already been assured.

However, the skeptical me is speculating that they are only making it appears that there will be an increase and on the day of announcement, this will be unchanged. This will certainly cause a big pump hehehehehe.

Whether they end up increasing it or not will not change the fact that the economic hardship is increasing, specially in the US that the people are suffering from multiple fronts.
- There is the US regime's economic warfare with the rest of the world over the past years that has destroyed the middle class by increasing their cost of living
- There is the regime's aggression toward all its clients (Greenland, Canada, etc.) that has isolated USA more than ever
- And of course the regime's aggression in West Asia that has not only significantly raised price of fuel (diesel shot past $6), fertilizer, metal, other natural resources but also created a severe shortage across USA as well as some other places.

The point is that the problems are mounting and interest rates are already a big problem, a slight change won't affect much. Even if phytologically a raise can cause bigger panic as more people lose faith faster in the US economy and the US dollar.

It appears that you did not understand. I am not arguing about economic hardships. I am arguing that this increase on interest rates will cause less inflows on the markets that will include the cryptospace markets. Also, this will not be a sudden occurrence. The market will dump slow in the beginning and quicker when everyone will notice that no one is anymore buying what they are holding heheehheeh.

Also, we can be quite certain that there might be more increase on interest rates! This will certainly cause more fear to arrive on the market.

[pooya87]

I am arguing that this increase on interest rates will cause less inflows on the markets that will include the cryptospace markets. Also, this will not be a sudden occurrence. The market will dump slow in the beginning and quicker when everyone will notice that no one is anymore buying what they are holding heheehheeh.

I get that. All I'm saying is that these things always have a diminishing effect. Meaning the first time they raised the interest rates, it was all over the news and the panic was big as well as the capital movement. People did pull a lot of money out of many markets because of that raise. Subsequent raises didn't cause the same level of outflow.

On top of that there are a lot of more important and new problems that can cause bigger drops than interest rates. For example the energy crisis (eg. natural gas prices hit ATH in Europe recently and on top of that there is a massive global shortage of gas and oil). This worsens the recession and pushes the price down a lot more than interest rates can. Which is the reason for the recent drops in bitcoin and other markets like the stocks in my opinion.

[AVE5]

It might also be in doubt that the $57,000 low in the month of June 2026 might not be the bottom for this cycle of market event.
I also find it weird to assume that what the market has proven so far recently on the up trends is a bull that prices can't be reversed down to lower prices to the bottom we've seen.

The 57k low was in a period of massive negative sentiment, with people believing that Strategy could go bankrupt and sell 800k Bitcoins at once. Now that this threat has waned away a bit and MSTR has again more solid numbers, it would take another doomsday scenario to create even a more negative sentiment to crash BTC down to 40k or so. For me, the likelihood is quite low. What we might see instead is another fight for the 57-60k area and even a sligthly lower low "to please the cyclists".

The news about Strategy selling off their bitcoin might actually be responsible for the attributes of the massive sells but this type of events could just be coincidentally intersected and considering the psychological manipulative intense of investor's in the market, it could be true that the significant price fall was out of suspected manipulative sell-off.
Usually, the market has its tense that amplifies major bearing which if what we're all suspecting about Strategy is deception is true, then there's possibilities of seeing lower lower from the bottom.
Maybe the $40,000 crash doesn't seem impossible either.

I don't really like to trust tracing past events that're unusual like the 2019 in question to predict the future events.

The question becomes then: what is "usual" in Bitcoin's price behavior? The so-called 4 year cycle, in all its purity (no ATH before halving, long crypto winter without approaching the old ATH) only appeared a single time: in the 2013-17 period. 2017-21 was already "unusual" with its strong 2019 bull and second 2020 bottom, and 2021-26 even more unusual with its early ATH. Thus I think it's legit to compare this intermediate bull with current price movements.

Absolutely bitcoin historical performance are interwoven and using the past as reference to predict the future prices. Therefore we can't do without tracing the previous calendars.

[Wind_FURY]

OP, zoom out and change the chart into a log chart, THEN you'll see that Bitcoin has ALWAYS been in a Super Cycle. Nocoiners will say that that's debatable, but if that's their criticism, then ask them what would happen to assets such as Gold/Bitcoin if the Federal Reserve and the Central Banks around the globe continue to devalue their currencies.

   ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[d5000]

I am arguing that this increase on interest rates will cause less inflows on the markets that will include the cryptospace markets.

The interest rate discussion is interesting. I think it is overrated in the case of Bitcoin for the following reason: Interest rate increases are mostly a reaction to high inflation. If the interest rate is increased by 0.25 percentage points to react to an increase of a full point in inflation, then in real terms your ROI of typical "safe" bank products or government/central bank issued bonds still will be lower. The CPI in the US is currently at 3.4% (it had a peak over 4% just after the Strait of Ormuz crisis), after around 2.5-2.9% a year ago. And also in Europe I read it was close to 3%, after months close to 2%.

If you invest in Bitcoin, you are still investing in a share of 1/21.000.000th part of the whole Bitcoin ecosystem, which will not change with interest rates.

If the high-inflation phase persists then investors will take this into account, because the long term increase in real prices in Bitcoin was always positive (excluding spikes and troughs). See also this thread about the long term price evolution. And then the "risk-on/risk-off" strategy (which works for micro price movements) will be "superseded" by the genuine Bitcoin demand.

I'm not talking about something hypothetical: this has happened always in the last 15 years, increased interest rates in the past often could not stop Bitcoin reaching new highs (examples are 2017, where US interest rates grew all the time and Bitcoin scored a massive bubble, and the first half of 2023, where interest rates also grew and Bitcoin jumped more than 50%).

You may counter "but gold also is scarce and has a higher ROI!" but that is only true if you look at the massive bubble phase in 2024/25. And after the >5600$ bubble peak gold is also struggling and despite a recent slight recovery it's quite persistent about 25% below its ATH.

[tiCeR]

I am arguing that this increase on interest rates will cause less inflows on the markets that will include the cryptospace markets.

...

If the high-inflation phase persists then investors will take this into account, because the long term increase in real prices in Bitcoin was always positive (excluding spikes and troughs). See also this thread about the long term price evolution. And then the "risk-on/risk-off" strategy (which works for micro price movements) will be "superseded" by the genuine Bitcoin demand.

I'm not talking about something hypothetical: this has happened always in the last 15 years, increased interest rates in the past often could not stop Bitcoin reaching new highs (examples are 2017, where US interest rates grew all the time and Bitcoin scored a massive bubble, and the first half of 2023, where interest rates also grew and Bitcoin jumped more than 50%).

You may counter "but gold also is scarce and has a higher ROI!" but that is only true if you look at the massive bubble phase in 2024/25. And after the >5600$ bubble peak gold is also struggling and despite a recent slight recovery it's quite persistent about 25% below its ATH.

We had the discussions before and I think bitcoin still need some more time and will benefit from the next real digital generation growing up. At times I can't believe who from the people I know is so skeptical about bitcoin that they don't own any at all. Well educated, often in the business sector, but they refuse to deal with it. They have often grown up with parents where investing in company shares or perhaps gold was a kind of standard.

The usability is still an issue or the custody. I can understand when many of the older people hear a lot about wallet software or other technical terms and then think "no, I stick with what I have been doing for any years". They have one depot, can trade there, tax is automatically calculated and they don't feel like changing much or looking into other opportunities.

The genuine bitcoin demand as you called it, is what will be crucial. Interest rate changes have minor effects more for the herd behavior reasons I think. You know that your neighbor, you react and then more people will react, but I don't think it is because those outflows mean that they immediately shift their investment money into other assets. Partially yes, but it is probably more a cautionary measure.

I am convinced that genuine demand will grow. Speculative demand exists everywhere and fingers have been burned there, too. Bank share prices crashed, technology companies had their crashes, actually every sector had their crashes, it is just that people can more easily identify with Apple because they have an iPhone than they can with bitcoin because they hold some of it. Very much of it will remain emotional, but again, over time that can very well transform into genuine demand because people want authority over their assets.

[PERtua]

I believe the real question is whether we are witnessing the new cycle structure, not the same 4-year cycle that we've seen in the past. It's not the same sort of drawdown and increasing long-term DMA as in previous bears, but these certainly are not a sign of a supercycle. Going forward, given the maturing of the market, liquidity should naturally be expected to decrease the volatility and maintain the overall cycle structure. I'd have to see a few more years of data before I considered anything other than one odd cycle as proof of the old pattern being gone.

[AVE5]

I believe the real question is whether we are witnessing the new cycle structure, not the same 4-year cycle that we've seen in the past. It's not the same sort of drawdown and increasing long-term DMA as in previous bears, but these certainly are not a sign of a supercycle. Going forward, given the maturing of the market, liquidity should naturally be expected to decrease the volatility and maintain the overall cycle structure. I'd have to see a few more years of data before I considered anything other than one odd cycle as proof of the old pattern being gone.

Since the trading of bitcoin in 2012, it has always been following the 4 year's cycle and according to the halving which events had  had been consistent adopted in recycling the 4 year's pattern.
The predictability of bitcoin price had also been precised to be traceable through the 4 year's event and with the 4 year's halving being in conjunction with the supercycle with the same pattern being repeated for over 3 consecutive seasons now, I think the show had become a traditional to the market.
For an odd cycle to come may depend on the liquidity which we might likely not see any moment soon due to the percentage of adoption is still very little compared to the future where we'd have massive adoption.

[Wind_FURY]

I believe the real question is whether we are witnessing the new cycle structure, not the same 4-year cycle that we've seen in the past.

Four-Year-Cycle projects that the current Bear Cycle's bottom should be during October/November, but the market movement now suggest that there were big entities/whales that front-ran the supposed October/November bottom?

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

It's not the same sort of drawdown and increasing long-term DMA as in previous bears, but these certainly are not a sign of a supercycle. Going forward, given the maturing of the market, liquidity should naturally be expected to decrease the volatility and maintain the overall cycle structure. I'd have to see a few more years of data before I considered anything other than one odd cycle as proof of the old pattern being gone.

ZOOM OUT, use the log chart. Bitcoin has never left its Super Cycle trajectory, and there's a fundamental reason for that. - The Federal Reserve and other Central Banks around the globe have always been devaluing fiat currencies.