Are crypto traders slowly moving to prediction markets?

[Donk1]

Well you made a good point, but it would be hard for traders who have been consistent for years taking their time learning the fundamentals of trading, only to stop and just jump into predicting market. To me it's more like starting over from scratch. And besides crypto trading and predictions market attract different kinds of mindset and psychology. Traders are looking for good entries favorable setups, and opportunities with strong risk to reward potential, while prediction folks are betting on real world events. And to my understanding trading has long term value and potential far better than prediction markets. It's so obscure to me because the crypto market existed way long before predicting market, so I don't really think they would be able to steal the massive liquidity that drives crypto trading... that's all.......

[Webutxo]

I don't see any direct correlation between crypto trading and the prediction market and if you ask me, crypto trading should be easier than the prediction market. The reason is simple, trading is more organized and have a lot of literatures covering the experiences of others and this can serve as reference for people to study and sharpen there skills. This is not the same with prediction market, hence the reason I consider it riskier than trading. Therefore, prediction market is not a threat to crypto trading.

There is correlation actually. People that do futures trading are predicting prices in anticipation that the price is young to reach a certain price, they do this by binding contract between traders and when it goes as they want, they make the money. This is very similar to prediction in casino. I think bear market is making while lots of crypto traders become prediction experts and I think its the only thing many people rely on now as the market is not pumping.

If you remove prediction market from crypto right now, there is nothing people can make money from, most of them are not familiar with the traditional casinos and sportsbooks, there is no airdrops and pre-sale that can give them 20x freely on the market, there is no free money right now on the market that's why they are doing prediction. If bull run or another trend emerges, most of them will stop.

[I_Anime]

This will really separate those gambling from those trading . Gambling and trading has been compared so many times due to the approach of many traders , who sees trading as a quick scheme of getting rich . Neglecting the fact that trading is all about the process , because there’s no shortcut it takes skill and discipline to be profitable in trading .

I think many may choose to do both , especially those that crypto trading can pay their bills already . Then they may choose to add prediction market as something they do for fun . Because market is mainly gambling and is totally different from trading too .

[Myleschetty]

If this trend continues, do you think crypto trading volume could eventually be affected, or prediction markets are still too small to make that kind of impact?

Prediction markets and cryptocurrency trading represent distinct categories, and I see no justification for a sincere crypto trader to transition from trading to prediction markets given the time required to wait for market confirmation before making a trade. Nevertheless, if this trend persists, the only traders likely to make this switch are those who already engage in gambling and choose to participate in prediction market games rather than trading due to the gambling buzz.

[Ronsbit]

Prediction market and Crypto trading are kind of two different things if I am not mistaken, but I think crypto traders also do with the prediction market for extra bucks hence you see them kind of look into that direction. For this reasons, Crypto exchange, wallet's and gambling casino incorporated it into their exercise like they do not want to close client and also gives ahead to monitor the economy of a nation.

[ColdLava40]

This makes me wonder what could happen to crypto trading volume if more active traders move to prediction markets. Maybe instead of day trading crypto, some people will just hold their coins, then use prediction markets for their short-term trading activity.

It just keeps on getting complicated.

Casinos offering traders prediction market and now exchanges too offering prediction markets too. Really don't know why they all mixing things up. But I don't think it's going to in any way affect traders.

If although I see someone gold at fundamental analysis making good bags from prediction market because they could use fundamental data to predict so it will be easy for them to convey. But this will not change anything, just complicate them.

[Patikno]

This topic is quite interesting because reportedly, some crypto traders are now moving to prediction markets. One reason is that crypto sometimes takes time before the market really moves, while prediction markets always have different events going on, so traders can keep trading if they want. If they are good at analyzing those events, they can also make money there.

This makes me wonder what could happen to crypto trading volume if more active traders move to prediction markets. Maybe instead of day trading crypto, some people will just hold their coins, then use prediction markets for their short-term trading activity.

If this trend continues, do you think crypto trading volume could eventually be affected, or prediction markets are still too small to make that kind of impact?

As long as most prediction markets continue to support cryptocurrency on their platforms, crypto trading volume shouldn't be significantly affected; I assume we will simply see a shift in how people utilize crypto. If this trend persists, users might increasingly turn to stablecoins, or other cryptocurrencies supported by the majority of prediction markets.

Furthermore, the scope of cryptocurrency usage is vast, and prediction markets are far from the only avenue for using it. I believe the large number of casino platforms supporting various cryptocurrencies also plays a major role in driving trading volume. Ultimately, many factors contribute to this volume, and the wide variety of cryptocurrencies used for speculation is certainly one of them.

[Sticky Bomb]

This makes me wonder what could happen to crypto trading volume if more active traders move to prediction markets. Maybe instead of day trading crypto, some people will just hold their coins, then use prediction markets for their short-term trading activity.

I think some traders are just holding their coins in the recent bullish trends to make some profits off it, while exploring the prediction markets. I'm not surprised that prediction markets is stealing the attention of some traders, it has more options to trade on and maybe some crypto traders are finding it interesting. It would gain more traction in the near future, but it will not displace crypto trading.

If this trend continues, do you think crypto trading volume could eventually be affected, or prediction markets are still too small to make that kind of impact?

The impact would not be much, prediction market cannot pull that much weight yet. What we see are just reactions to prediction market increased popularity. Real crypto traders are still actively trading, I doubt most would leave crypto trading for prediction markets.

[sunsilk]

If this trend continues, do you think crypto trading volume could eventually be affected, or prediction markets are still too small to make that kind of impact?

No. I don't think that there's a need to worry about the trading volume from exchanges from crypto traders and for the volume that goes to the prediction markets.

These two are completely two different worlds and that's why you don't have to be too worried about it. The market is continuing to grow and all of these niches will be filled if there's a gap.

The trading has got covered by a lot of leverage traders too and that includes the institutions. Whilst the prediction markets, I don't think that a lot of them will jump into it.

Although it's safe to say that there are a lot of crypto people who are testing the waters of prediction markets too until they realize that it's also a gamble.

[348Judah]

Prediction market and Crypto trading are kind of two different things if I am not mistaken, but I think crypto traders also do with the prediction market for extra bucks hence you see them kind of look into that direction.

That is true, when you see platforms and other services promoting prediction market in this manner shows that they are doing so in order to end some extra bucks, which is the major reason why you discover today that some are operating under some particular platform and promoted them because of what they stand to get in doing so, maybe government will have to fight all of them together very soon as it persist.

[r_victory]

I see the prediction market as a distinct activity. I believe traders aren't migrating to the prediction market, but are using it as another way to profit, as a complementary activity to what they already do. I think it's easier for the volume of these markets to increase than for the volume of trading to decrease. Regulation is still in its early stages, with some platforms being banned in some places, generating uncertainty, and I think that's why it hasn't grown as it should.

[JunaidAzizi]

I don't think that crypto users are moving to the prediction market and choosing it over trading. That is a false approach shared by the prediction markets to attract traders because traders have more funds than any other users. Second, crypto has trillions in value and billions in volume, so how will traders leave just for a market that is recently growing? That small number of users cannot affect the whole crypto market.

[Davidvictorson]

This makes me wonder what could happen to crypto trading volume if more active traders move to prediction markets. Maybe instead of day trading crypto, some people will just hold their coins, then use prediction markets for their short-term trading activity.

Well it is not like this is how it is happening.
The crypto trading volume will not change.
You should also know that there are folks into prediction markets that are not into crypto trading and vice versa.

[Ronsbit]

Prediction market and Crypto trading are kind of two different things if I am not mistaken, but I think crypto traders also do with the prediction market for extra bucks hence you see them kind of look into that direction.

That is true, when you see platforms and other services promoting prediction market in this manner shows that they are doing so in order to end some extra bucks, which is the major reason why you discover today that some are operating under some particular platform and promoted them because of what they stand to get in doing so, maybe government will have to fight all of them together very soon as it persist.

Ofcourse the main aim is always to make profit. Both the users and the platform want to make more money hence their interest in the market. The government also want taxes so they will definitely come for theirs as the case may be.

[tiCeR]

This topic is quite interesting because reportedly, some crypto traders are now moving to prediction markets. One reason is that crypto sometimes takes time before the market really moves, while prediction markets always have different events going on, so traders can keep trading if they want. If they are good at analyzing those events, they can also make money there.

This makes me wonder what could happen to crypto trading volume if more active traders move to prediction markets. Maybe instead of day trading crypto, some people will just hold their coins, then use prediction markets for their short-term trading activity.

If this trend continues, do you think crypto trading volume could eventually be affected, or prediction markets are still too small to make that kind of impact?

Source:
https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/for-many-individual-traders-prediction-markets-are-hotand-crypto-is-not-bef27e3d

That is what I think would be called normal behavioral economics. Rising markets, increasing liquidity and a diverse offering will always attract people and if you can bet on anything and everything, traders as well. Now if traders will there is not enough fun to be had in the crypto market, they could leverage their positions any time. Prediction markets are just a different thing to some degree. Whether I bet on the hair color that Donald Trump will have in one week or whether bitcoin by then went up or down, it's about hype, about the desire to gamble, I don't know, but depending on what markets are gaining traction now on those prediction platforms, it certainly doesn't always have to do with building a portfolio. Prediction markets are so broad, so strange at times that I don't see how that could be compared to those who constantly build up their bitcoin holdings and increase its share in their overall portfolio.

Isn't crypto mostly used on those prediction markets to make payments and settle bets?

[Ryu_Ar1]

I think this depends on how the trader sees the prediction market, in general there is no special connection for these 2 things especially the prediction market still leads to gambling but there will be little correlation where if the trader likes to gamble then the prediction market can be used as a new arena for them to spend the money they get

But if the trader is not gambling then they will never be in the prediction market because their gambling drive is quite small.
Even though there will be those who say that the analysis is a little the same to be compared but still it cannot be interpreted that most traders will switch to the prediction market.  Those who visit gambling sites every day or every week will have the possibility to be in the prediction market more than traders.

[Alphakilo]

The predictions market or cryptocurrency trading or gambling platforms are all businesses that benefit from people who want regular quick funds or have the chances to multiply their funds quickly and while it may seem the predictions market is making a mark right now, the volume of traders isn't affected, because those who still know how to trade will keep doing so while those who can't will just hold their crypto currency or try their luck with predictions market and that's the way it is.

[OgNasty]

I think the gaming style of prediction markets can be an attractive experience for traders of all kinds, not just crypto. I’ve seen some interfaces that basically look like you’re playing a video game but you’re actually predicting the future market movement of an asset. Crazy times we are living in for sure.

[savetheFORUM]

Crypto trading and prediction markets are completely different things. Someone who trades assets through analysis and everything cannot make much out of a prediction market because it is simply gambling and not trading. I wonder what you mean by saying that they can keep trading if they can analyze the events, because first of all, it's not trading but it's gambling, and there is no analysis that can be done on prediction market bets, because there are basically two options, and you need to choose one, even if one of those options have lower odds, it doesn't necessarily mean that option is going to be the winner. It's just like a coin flip, in my opinion, even if there are 50-50% for both heads and tails, you can't increase your chances in any way.

So I believe only those who have an interest in gambling in general will move towards prediction markets, and they don't need to move by the way, they can keep doing both at the same time. If the crypto market becomes dull for some time because we know that the market goes sideways and during that phase, there aren't a lot of trading opportunities. So, in those times, those with an interest in gambling, they might explore prediction markets and make a few bets, but as I said, it's simply gambling and they shouldn't expect to make profits from that. It's all dependent on their luck, because prediction markets won't provide easy to win options for anyone.

[Joy- maker]

This topic is quite interesting because reportedly, some crypto traders are now moving to prediction markets. One reason is that crypto sometimes takes time before the market really moves, while prediction markets always have different events going on, so traders can keep trading if they want. If they are good at analyzing those events, they can also make money there.

This makes me wonder what could happen to crypto trading volume if more active traders move to prediction markets. Maybe instead of day trading crypto, some people will just hold their coins, then use prediction markets for their short-term trading activity.

If this trend continues, do you think crypto trading volume could eventually be affected, or prediction markets are still too small to make that kind of impact?

I think the prediction markets are still too small to have that kind of impact, at least for now.  And the reason why crypto traders are moving to prediction markets is simple, people tend to follow trends and the prediction markets are currently attracting attention and some trader are making good amount of money from it.

Trust me, this trend won't last forever because markets usually go through cycles and  traders move to wherever they see the best short term opportunities, with time the hype will fade and trader will start going back to their usual crypto trading activities, so for now I don't the prediction markets are significantly large enough to affect overall crypto trading volume.