Value extraction from live roulette

[Smack That Ace]

You cannot use your previous spins to predict the next spin, even if the wheel is functioning well. Don't let this deceive you, or don't let it motivate you to give yourself full assurance about winning.

I agree with you, but matter goes a bit deeper here. You are right that one cannot predict outcome of next spin simply by looking at previous result.

However, measuring physical parameter of current spin is different matter entirely. If you read document on past roulette research, you will realize that they didn't just look at whether previous spin landed on red or black. They utilized physical data such as position, velocity and acceleration of ball and wheel.
Therefore, if sufficiently accurate physical data regarding current spin can be obtained before betting window close then it is not unusual for such anomalies to occur.
Admittedly, achieving this in live online roulette is far more difficult. But that is not same as saying that prediction using physic is completely impossible.

[Crypto Library]

Has this been attempted? Do you think it's possible?

If I'm not mistaken, you mean that since there is no use of algorithm in the live version of this game, it is possible to solve it and win through physics and mathematics?

And this concept actually reminded me of a movie called 21 where Professor Micky Rosa, along with all the brilliant students at MIT, continuously wins at blackjack using mathematics.

But is that actually possible? Even if you want to apply physics, you still need to know the physical size of the tables and the balls, and how can you know that? And even if you try to do something like that, there is a high chance of getting caught. So how is it possible to extract value from live roulette?

[Saltysugar99]

When it comes to Roulette games we should no that there is no actually pattern or even Rus which guides it. Every thing is just based on luck because one thing that most people don't Know is that these machines is designed in such a way that is has advantage over anyone playing, it's called the house edge so no mater how hard or how many times some spins that wheels your chances of getting value off it is difficult. This is the reason many people sees Roulette gaming machines within different views but the truth is that irrespective of your believe or even superstition you can't accurately get the movement of a Roulette machine.

I agree with you. Actually Roulette is a luck based casino game. There are no winning rules or patterns here. I don't think it is possible to make accurate predictions using physics by analyzing movement. And normally gamblers want to find patterns even in normal events, so that later they can use it for accurate predictions. And the mentality of a normal gambler works very interestingly here. If a very close number keeps coming up repeatedly then if they increase the betting amount because the same number or a close number comes up next time, then the gambler makes a mistake. And they do this because of their psychological problem. Because we always want to find clues or patterns in everything and that creates the problem.

[Alex077]

...
Now, the question of if positive EV can be achieved on live roulette is on if somehow a pattern can be detected. Some have argued that the physics is enough to predict the outcome in terms of which section the ball would land on, at least making better predictions than random ones. But then again there's the house edge, so even if you make predictions better than predicting randomly, the predictions need to be notably and reliably better than just 1%.

The other limitation is that the window to use the physics visible and make a prediction is approximately 3 seconds while the dealer spins the wheel, then the ball and then the game gives this time window before the bets are closed...

I think if you can measure the speed of the wheel and the ball accurately enough, as well as the moment the ball is released and how it gradually slows down, you can try to predict not the exact number, but the sector of the wheel where the ball is more likely to land.

Your edge has to be big and consistent enough to overcome the house edge, and even small measurement errors can quickly wipe out that advantage. Different dealers spin the ball with different amounts of force, the speed of the wheel changes, and the ball hitting the deflectors adds another major source of unpredictability.

Those three seconds are also a big problem. Modern cameras and computers are certainly fast enough to do the calculations, but I think the quality of the data you’re working with is probably much more important than the actual computing power.

[Grace333]

So surely casinos must have a way to combat this.

Casinos have it much easier today than they did two or three decades ago, when some people managed to exploit imperfections. In addition to ensuring that the roulette wheels have no imperfections, the balls are replaced periodically, as are the croupiers, and today all the results are stored in databases that they can analyze—even using AI—to see if anything seems off.

The reason why casinos have it much easier is because they are more advanced in terms of technology to detect any form of cheating, there is no way anyone would be able to cheat the casino without them detecting it unless they have someone on the inside.This doesn't stop at the level that it's at currently, the casinos are still upgrading and improving their security to ensure fairness and avoid manipulation.of any kind by players. Due to how the system of a lot of casinos are i don't think players still think about finding any loopholes to exploit.

[sompitonov]

The reason why casinos have it much easier is because they are more advanced in terms of technology to detect any form of cheating, there is no way anyone would be able to cheat the casino without them detecting it unless they have someone on the inside.This doesn't stop at the level that it's at currently, the casinos are still upgrading and improving their security to ensure fairness and avoid manipulation.of any kind by players. Due to how the system of a lot of casinos are i don't think players still think about finding any loopholes to exploit.

Of course, players think about this daily perhaps even using AI for the purpose but right now, I believe such unscrupulous players stand little chance of success. However, I wouldn't rule out a future scenario where AI makes another major leap forward, potentially catching casinos off guard with an attack they aren't prepared to handle. That said, there is another side to the coin: casinos will also employ AI and leverage the resources and accumulated profits at their disposal to mount a defense when the time comes, as their continued survival in the industry depends on it.

[hedgeh0g]

Of course, players think about this daily perhaps even using AI for the purpose but right now, I believe such unscrupulous players stand little chance of success. However, I wouldn't rule out a future scenario where AI makes another major leap forward, potentially catching casinos off guard with an attack they aren't prepared to handle. That said, there is another side to the coin: casinos will also employ AI and leverage the resources and accumulated profits at their disposal to mount a defense when the time comes, as their continued survival in the industry depends on it.

However, it is highly unlikely that one can turn a profit playing live roulette and this applies to more than just roulette because the moment a player attempts to win using any specific strategy, the casino’s security system will immediately flag them. They will then be subjected to scrutiny, specifically regarding the finer details of their gameplay. I imagine the staff are well-versed in the nuances and simply follow established protocols for detecting such activity. I believe the only way to win consistently is through honest play much like professional poker players who turn a profit by playing a vast number of hands each month, capitalizing on their opponents' suboptimal play and their own extensive experience.

[iv4n]

Has this been attempted? Do you think it's possible?

What exactly? Did anyone apply a "street" technique in an online casino? It's foolish to think that online roulette is as vulnerable as physical ones... especially the ones from 30-40 years ago.

I am not sure I even understand "Value extraction from live roulette"... I guess you can try to "extract some value", and maybe you will succeed. Or maybe you will lose everything you have...

Did you try anything, or is this just a pure talk?

[pawanjain]

For the dealer, he might get a grasp over the roll he throws over time thus allowing him to know in which range the ball might land.
Might be an edge for the dealer in this case but only the professional ones with great experience will have this.
For the gambler it's equally difficult to predict the roll and thus losing money most of the times is quiet expected for a gambler.

[xenomorfo]

The one truth with gambling that most gamblers don't want to hear is telling them to play to pass time and catch fun, the subscription has being about making profit through calculated strategies and skills. Long term win ain't consistent in gambling and when a gambler is lucky to experience it, they think it's the strategy used, and when the gambler establish confidence with it that's when everything tears apart with serial losses.

and i understand, i understand what you are saying dear letterhub, but you always have to deal with the real world
in the real world i have never seen a gambler get rich
almost everyone becomes poor, yes, so you don't get rich as much as possible, you have fun.

[Smartprofit]

Has this been attempted? Do you think it's possible?

What exactly? Did anyone apply a "street" technique in an online casino? It's foolish to think that online roulette is as vulnerable as physical ones... especially the ones from 30-40 years ago.

I am not sure I even understand "Value extraction from live roulette"... I guess you can try to "extract some value", and maybe you will succeed. Or maybe you will lose everything you have...

Did you try anything, or is this just a pure talk?

I read one such story (there were probably more of them in reality).🙋

The hero of this story was Alex (not his real name, but a pseudonym). This hacker remained anonymous; his real first and last names are unknown, but all members of his team were detained by the police. He was a Russian mathematician and programmer from St. Petersburg.

He didn't like gambling. He was only interested in complex mathematical problems. Alex realized that the slot machines of his time didn't possess true randomness, but only a digital imitation of it (a pseudo-random number generator). Having gotten his hands on the slot machines intended for destruction, he carefully analyzed their operation and was able to simulate their pseudo-random number generators. The rest was easy! He organized a criminal organization and started making money.

It's true that modern online roulette is much more difficult to hack than it was 10 or 20 years ago. On the other hand, Coldcard hardware wallets have also been hacked, and that's a very recent story.  It also turned out that they have low entropy.🎲

[tread93]

As you know live roulette doesn't follow an algorithm to generate randomness. The dealer spins the ball with his imperfect human hands and the entropy of the butterfly effect leads to hard to predict outcomes every round. There is physics involved but I'd venture to guess that even a very powerful computer couldn't predict the outcomes perfectly in the given time between each spin.

Now, the question of if positive EV can be achieved on live roulette is on if somehow a pattern can be detected. Some have argued that the physics is enough to predict the outcome in terms of which section the ball would land on, at least making better predictions than random ones. But then again there's the house edge, so even if you make predictions better than predicting randomly, the predictions need to be notably and reliably better than just 1%.

The other limitation is that the window to use the physics visible and make a prediction is approximately 3 seconds while the dealer spins the wheel, then the ball and then the game gives this time window before the bets are closed.

A live casino setting allows for a physics calculation to be done via video feed without having to carry equipment in a physical casino and get the police called on you. But the question remains if it's possible to beat entropy to an extent that the house edge also gets beaten and lets the player win long term. Because even with bonuses, rake back/loss back and french rules the house edge might still be too high.

Has this been attempted? Do you think it's possible?

I wonder if some people have figured this out, I also wonder if the casino has thought of this and has like different weighted balls for example to create different kind of entropy. Roulette to me is one of the most thrilling and exciting games because it is so suspenseful and its fun to watch things go round and round in circles tooo.

[Cointxz]

I wonder if some people have figured this out, I also wonder if the casino has thought of this and has like different weighted balls for example to create different kind of entropy. Roulette to me is one of the most thrilling and exciting games because it is so suspenseful and its fun to watch things go round and round in circles tooo.

I doubt someone will disclosed it publicly if ever they manage to crack the code on this roulette unless they are already caught and casino already figured out how to counter it.

I was fond on roulette games too lately that makes me do some experiment but I only experienced failure.

Considering how aggressive most game provider nowadays, they will just accuse player for cheating in case they manage to win consistently using a certain method so in the end this might be a useless attempt to beat the casino.

[iv4n]

...

I read one such story (there were probably more of them in reality).🙋

The hero of this story was Alex (not his real name, but a pseudonym). This hacker remained anonymous; his real first and last names are unknown, but all members of his team were detained by the police. He was a Russian mathematician and programmer from St. Petersburg.

He didn't like gambling. He was only interested in complex mathematical problems. Alex realized that the slot machines of his time didn't possess true randomness, but only a digital imitation of it (a pseudo-random number generator). Having gotten his hands on the slot machines intended for destruction, he carefully analyzed their operation and was able to simulate their pseudo-random number generators. The rest was easy! He organized a criminal organization and started making money.

It's true that modern online roulette is much more difficult to hack than it was 10 or 20 years ago. On the other hand, Coldcard hardware wallets have also been hacked, and that's a very recent story.  It also turned out that they have low entropy.🎲

Interesting story, and I have heard so many similar ones... I even saw how people used magnets on slots and roulette 25 years ago (more or less)... There are many classic tricks we could read about or see in the movies, but that was back then, now it's a different time. Modern slots and live roulette run differently...

I know about hacks around, but what it takes to pull it off is probably a whole different story. You need to be a genius and have insider access to even stand a chance. In any way, it's not "value extraction", it's hacking...

So we ordinary players can only have fun playing roulette, and if we are lucky, we will "extract some value"...

[Ishicryptic]

The one truth with gambling that most gamblers don't want to hear is telling them to play to pass time and catch fun, the subscription has being about making profit through calculated strategies and skills. Long term win ain't consistent in gambling and when a gambler is lucky to experience it, they think it's the strategy used, and when the gambler establish confidence with it that's when everything tears apart with serial losses.

and i understand, i understand what you are saying dear letterhub, but you always have to deal with the real world
in the real world i have never seen a gambler get rich
almost everyone becomes poor, yes, so you don't get rich as much as possible, you have fun.

No matter the level of value extraction from roulette or strategy that you choose to apply in any casino games you have to ask yourself what is the probability of winning and becoming rich through gambling, the answer is that it is very low so we cannot underestimate luck, to win big in gambling you have to be lucky. You can choose to gamble for entertainment or to get rich through it what matters most importantly is to use amounts that you're comfortable to lose, don't get addicted to gambling no matter your aim for engaging in it. I understand about house edge and I don't try to exploit loopholes in the games that I play, I just play with small amounts and accept whatever outcomes that I get.

[Josefjix]

The one truth with gambling that most gamblers don't want to hear is telling them to play to pass time and catch fun, the subscription has being about making profit through calculated strategies and skills. Long term win ain't consistent in gambling and when a gambler is lucky to experience it, they think it's the strategy used, and when the gambler establish confidence with it that's when everything tears apart with serial losses.

and i understand, i understand what you are saying dear letterhub, but you always have to deal with the real world
in the real world i have never seen a gambler get rich
almost everyone becomes poor, yes, so you don't get rich as much as possible, you have fun.

No matter the level of value extraction from roulette or strategy that you choose to apply in any casino games you have to ask yourself what is the probability of winning and becoming rich through gambling, the answer is that it is very low so we cannot underestimate luck, to win big in gambling you have to be lucky. You can choose to gamble for entertainment or to get rich through it what matters most importantly is to use amounts that you're comfortable to lose, don't get addicted to gambling no matter your aim for engaging in it. I understand about house edge and I don't try to exploit loopholes in the games that I play, I just play with small amounts and accept whatever outcomes that I get.

I don't count money gotten from gambling to be richness sum, you only get rich when money is earned through equity, richness does not come from instant heavy sum that doesn't or hardly come again, richness stays no matter how small the income comes in, so long as the consistency is strong enough to last long.

When a user wins big, the ability to create a system that generate income is should be the goal, if not then the user is liable to go broke again if care not taken.

[DrBeer]

Obviously, that’s impossible right now. I saw a documentary about how various people abused roulette in offline casino (calculations based on how many seconds it took the ball to complete, say, four spins of the wheel allowed one to determine which sector it was most likely to land in). Sooner or later, these savvy players were discovered, and casinos came to that now you're not given enough time to watch the ball and draw conclusions, bets are closed much earlier. Do you think those who provide video roulette services were aware of this and took measures to avoid repeating the mistakes of offline casinos? The answer is obvious.

If a person doesn't use methods that are prohibited in the casino, then there's no one to expose! The fact is that casinos operate by "guaranteeing themselves an advantage" based on probability theory and other "mathematical tricks", CALCULATING that, according to this math, a player will be unable to predict the outcome, or that the probability of doing so will be extremely low.
Consequently, the player’s goal is the opposite- to find a way to increase the probability of making that correct guess And that’s the point of the game. It’s always seemed to me that this behavior on the part of casinos is, if not illegal, then at least on the edge of legality. Sometimes you just have to lose, even if you really love money and your strategy is almost perfect!

P.S. I recommend reading Edward Thorp’s "Beat the Dealer" and learning more about his story in general

I know how all this works, and also how it’s "supposed to work according to the law". But if we look into history, we will (perhaps with surprise) see that different countries have different laws (which, by the way, were also different at different times) and these laws may contradict our ideas about common sense and justice 
I watched a video about Niko Tosa, who developed a system to visually predict where the ball would land. In 2004, he won over a million pounds at a casino. Do you think he simply "collected his winnings legally"? No - the casino set the police on him, who pursued him and his assistants for almost a year. It happened in the UK, so he eventually got his money, but I think that in countries where the law is interpreted much more loosely, things might have turned out differently.

Unfortunately, corruption is everywhere, and what you described is exactly that! But the encouraging thing about this example is that the rule of law prevailed! When it comes to situations where corruption takes precedence over the law, there’s no point in even discussing the issue, because there’s guaranteed to be no solution.

[Queen uloma]

Win long-term in live roulette? If that ever happens, I think that gambler will probably not boast about it to preserve his profit-making machine.

When it comes to live roulette, there are so many superstitions about it, and some would even say there's a pattern. There's none. But I do believe that the weight of the ball could make a difference, and physics could be applied. I guess that is where the pattern will make sense because the weight and size of the ball may differ, and then some balls are sometimes chipped, and it could also change the results of the game.
But I honestly doubt one could do it long term because they change it and so do the dealer.

I don't think we can win in the long term, i don't remember who explained the mathematical reason to me.
But I'm bad at math.
I can only tell you, it's better that you play to just pass the time, it's no coincidence that it's called gambling.
Money is only made by working, honestly.

I totally agree with that, we can’t win in long term, which is very true. gambling isn’t a reliable way to make money because the house has more advantage in long term.  You may win today, but tomorrow can be another story. If you want to gamble, let it be fun or entertainment and only use money that you can afford to lose. Personally for me, it’s hard work and wise investment that gives a good chance to build wealth.

[Betwrong]

As you know live roulette doesn't follow an algorithm to generate randomness. The dealer spins the ball with his imperfect human hands and the entropy of the butterfly effect leads to hard to predict outcomes every round. There is physics involved but I'd venture to guess that even a very powerful computer couldn't predict the outcomes perfectly in the given time between each spin.

Of course, it couldn't. Because it's impossible to predict anything with certainty, especially when the probability of the event is not 99.(9)% as of rising of the Sun tomorrow, but maximum 97.3%, when you bet on all numbers, but one on roulette. And normally no one bets like that because the win would be tiny compared to what you bet. On roulette people often bet on a color - less than 50% chance of winning, or on a number, which gives them less than 3% chance. Of course, no one can predict that. And even if a super computer, taking physics into account, could make better predictions than random ones, those predictions would be only a fraction of percent more accurate and in reality would be useless.

[alani123]

As you know live roulette doesn't follow an algorithm to generate randomness. The dealer spins the ball with his imperfect human hands and the entropy of the butterfly effect leads to hard to predict outcomes every round. There is physics involved but I'd venture to guess that even a very powerful computer couldn't predict the outcomes perfectly in the given time between each spin.

Of course, it couldn't. Because it's impossible to predict anything with certainty, especially when the probability of the event is not 99.(9)% as of rising of the Sun tomorrow, but maximum 97.3%, when you bet on all numbers, but one on roulette. And normally no one bets like that because the win would be tiny compared to what you bet. On roulette people often bet on a color - less than 50% chance of winning, or on a number, which gives them less than 3% chance. Of course, no one can predict that. And even if a super computer, taking physics into account, could make better predictions than random ones, those predictions would be only a fraction of percent more accurate and in reality would be useless.

Maybe though we don't need a supercomputer!
AI has been known to make processes more efficient in ways a human couldn't have easily thought about.
For instance DeepSeek is able to perform similarly to GPT models with only 1% of the compute.

Maybe if someone trained a model on live roukette inputs, it could even run on a home computer if it was efficient.
Nowdays the question on predicting entropy isn't just computing power, but also efficient usage of compute. With AI many computing sectors got disrupted because we realised it's no longer needed to fully calculate everything if we can find a program to do some efficient jumping around the calculations to approximate a good enough result.