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So what you are trying to say is that , the smaller my withdrawal percent per annual the more bitcoin I will have to accumulate. Which also means longer your accumulation phase will take depending on your cashflow. So for instance an individual hit his 1 BTC goal, and then he further decided he want to be withdrawing $30k as his 4% from his investment annually , such folk will still have to further accumulate till eventually have enough bitcoin that can actually generate that amount range yearly . Though , is not certain for one to have a fixed withdrawal percentage due to price volatility. I’ve never reason it this way, this is actually nice with this I can make some adjustments in my bitcoin goal . But I will start from achievable goal first base on my cashflow maybe overtime I will scale up.
If I may ask, Is it better to set a BTC target first, or set an annual income target and work backwards?
You can plug your target income level into the fuck you status tool and you can see that if you project out 10 years, you will need 2.5x more bitcoin if you are considering that you can ONLY employ a 4% withdrawal rate as compared with if you are considering that you could employ a 10% withdrawal rate. Of course, you have to consider a withdrawal rate that is reasonable, and I am very much a fan of sustainable withdrawal (meaning that it can be done forever) versus a kind of withdrawal that depletes the principle, unless there is a purposeful reason for depleting the principle, such as age and/or health.
So, surely the withdrawal rate is sustainable so long as on average the bitcoin holdings is growing faster than the withdrawal rate. The historical backlogs in the
sustainable withdrawal tool shows that quite aggressive withdrawal rates of greater than 10% per year could have had been employed and still the bitcoin holdings would grow faster than it was being withdrawn - especially if the bitcoin holdings were valued using the 200-WMA and the withdrawals were being done based on the dollar target.
From my point of view, guys can make mistakes by wrongly valuating their holdings (getting overly excited about spot price) and then ending up withdrawing too much too soon based on their presumptions that spot prices are sustainable and really the 200-WMA tends to be more sustainable since it is considered a bottom price, so therefore the 200-WMA tends to move around a lot less.. and also ongoingly tends to go up (at least so far in bitcoin's history).
If we use the default annual income of $80k in
the fuck you status tool, then we can see that in June 2020, it would have had taken 135.5 BTC to support that $80k annual income level, in December 2023, it would have had taken 27.5 BTC, in June 2025, it would have had taken 16.7 BTC, and currently the December 2026 projection is that it will ONLY take 11.4 BTC to support that same annual income of $80k.
Of course, we can use the fuck you status tool to project forward based on presumptions of how much the 200-WMA will continue to grow, and see how many bitcoin it would be considered to take at various points in time in the future to sustain that same income level of $80k per year, yet we an also use the
simulation tool within the sustainable withdrawal tool to backtest what would have had been our withdrawal amounts and to see what would have had happened to our bitcoin stash size if we had withdrawn at that $80k per year rate.
You can put the numbers in at any date and see that high rates of withdrawn (such as 10% or more per year of the 200-WMA valuation) would have had been supported as long as you were valuating your holdings based on the 200-WMA and then withdrawing from your holdings based the dollar value to sustain your target income level.
So,
just plug in the numbers. for example, if you had 100 BTC in January 2021, the 200WMA would have had valued your portfolio at $780k at that time, and if you put the withdrawal rate of 10% into the simulator based on the 200WMA value, then it would have had started out withdrawing at $78k per year, and if you had continued to withdraw at 10% of the 200 WMA valuation, between January 2021 and now you would have had withdrawn 28.42 BTC which would have had been $1.474 million dollars, which really ended up being an average of $246k per year.. but even with that withdrawal rate, you would still have 71.6 BTC right now.
The simulator is surely not perfect since it did not account for a constant $80k per year withdrawal, but instead withdrew the quantity of dollars based on 10% of the 200WMA valuation, and since the 200-WMA continued to go up way greater than the targeted withdrawal rate of $80k per year (perhaps with a 7% per year increase in the dollar withdrawal rate), the annual withdrawal amount ended up being way higher than the targeted $80k per year rate.
Of course when we are looking at how many bitcoin that we need right now to withdraw at a certain rate, it might seem impossible to reach that amount of BTC, but surely once we reach the needed level in accordance with valuating at the 200-WMA amounts, it seems quite likely that we can withdraw at decently high rates (such as 10% or more) as long as we are valuating our stash based on the 200-WMA rather than the all over the place movements of the spot price, even though when we are withdrawing from our holdings we are receiving spot prices for the amount of BTC that we end up selling which should end up preserving our bitcoin stash since we tend to have to withdraw fewer bitcoin in order to reach our target dollar amount of withdrawal (such as $80k per year in the example).
I also think that both the back models and even the likely future projections of BTC allows a 10% per year withdrawal (based on the 200-WMA valuation), but also an ability to give yourself a 7% per year raise in the dollar withdrawal rate amount each year, so once withdrawals begin for the $80k per year guy, then the second year his withdrawal amount would be $85.6k and then the third year the withdrawal amount would be $91.6k and the fourth year the withdrawal amount would be $98k.. etc etc etc.
Of course, there can be ongoing monitoring of the value of the bitcoin at the 200-WMA valuation to make sure that the withdrawal amounts continue to be sustainable and that the withdrawal amounts are not overly depleting the BTC holdings.
