Is it time for a new hot thing to hodl.?

[crwth]

I don't think they should be compared because they aren't apples-to-apples. One is a centralized asset, and one is a privately owned stock that is tied to how a company would perform in the coming years.

An economic approach would also affect one after the other, but i don't think it's too comparable, and maybe the best approach here is to have diversification and have them both.

[Curious T]

Did you know that $1k invested in NVIDIA back in 2016 could've turned into around $200k by 2026? That's a 200x return in just 10 year. So it is wrong to say stock cannot make huge move and deliver massive return over a decade.

How much you will get with how much you invested is not what is being discussed. The discussion is if it will get to 1,000 dollars in the next 10 years. NVIDIA hasn't gotten to 1,000 in that time. And don't also forget that NVIDIA is part of the exception. There are exceptions in most things. You can't use those things to define the whole. NVIDIA moved impressively in a relatively short time, but that is not the question.

As for Bitcoin over the next 10 year, I agree that with a bigger market cap, BTC grows slower. But tbh I think you are lowballing it a bit if you believe it can't hit $500k in the next decade. Given its potential and growing adoption, I'm still pretty bullish on its chances of reaching that level.

I am bullish about Bitcoin too, but I am trying to be realistic. Bitcoin's ATH is around 126,000 dollars right now. The new ATH of Bitcoin after the halving will determine if it can get up to 500,000. If the new ATH is still less than 200,000, then the chances of getting to 500,000 are very slim. As we both agreed, the higher the market cap, the slower the volatility, which means the lower the price goes up or down. At 200,000 dollars, the market cap is about four trillion. Expecting the market cap to double in such a short time is a little bit unrealistic.

[nara1892]

This is a bit difficult because both have different market structures and risk levels, but both certainly have the potential to increase 6x in less than 10 years the question is, which one will do it faster? I might choose Bitcoin because based on historical data since its inception, Bitcoin has shown faster growth in value compared to SpaceX but that doesn’t mean I’m saying SpaceX is bad, since it’s clearly one of the largest companies today. My choice is based on historical data regarding the speed of growth since both were created, however, I also understand that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results over the next 5 years this is still speculation.

But regardless of anything else, you’re still in a good position, @philipma1957, because you have assets in two high value areas.

[Smack That Ace]

How much you will get with how much you invested is not what is being discussed. The discussion is if it will get to 1,000 dollars in the next 10 years. NVIDIA hasn't gotten to 1,000 in that time. And don't also forget that NVIDIA is part of the exception. There are exceptions in most things. You can't use those things to define the whole. NVIDIA moved impressively in a relatively short time, but that is not the question.

I brought up NVIDIA because you said stocks aren't that volatile and can't deliver huge returns in a short time.

Stocks work a lot like crypto, y'know, the price per share depends on circulating supply, supply and demand...NVIDIA and SPCX started out with different total supply and valuation, $12 and $135 respectively. So comparing their share prices directly is apples and oranges. Mcap is a much better metric to look at.
With a $5T mcap, it's no surprise NVIDIA hasn't hit $1k a share, and it might never get there. SPCX, on the other hand, could, since its still relatively new and small compared with its potential.

NVIDIA might be an exception, sure. But if you'd invested in Apple, Netflix or Amazon, you could've made 30x to 50x on your money over 10 years too.

I am bullish about Bitcoin too, but I am trying to be realistic. Bitcoin's ATH is around 126,000 dollars right now. The new ATH of Bitcoin after the halving will determine if it can get up to 500,000. If the new ATH is still less than 200,000, then the chances of getting to 500,000 are very slim. As we both agreed, the higher the market cap, the slower the volatility, which means the lower the price goes up or down. At 200,000 dollars, the market cap is about four trillion. Expecting the market cap to double in such a short time is a little bit unrealistic.

I get your point, and I'm a realist too. I'm not into wishful thinking. I don't even believe Btc will hit $1m in the next 20 years or overtake gold someday, as many people seem to think it will. But I'm still pretty optimistic about Btc reaching $500k within the next 10 years.

[Iranus]

This is a bit difficult because both have different market structures and risk levels, but both certainly have the potential to increase 6x in less than 10 years the question is, which one will do it faster? I might choose Bitcoin because based on historical data since its inception, Bitcoin has shown faster growth in value compared to SpaceX but that doesn’t mean I’m saying SpaceX is bad, since it’s clearly one of the largest companies today. My choice is based on historical data regarding the speed of growth since both were created, however, I also understand that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results over the next 5 years this is still speculation.

But regardless of anything else, you’re still in a good position, @philipma1957, because you have assets in two high value areas.

SPCX only got listed on the Nasdaq in June. So there is not much price history yet to compare its performance with Bitcoin.

Bitcoin going from virtually nothing to over $100k in 17 years is remarkable. But using that track record alone to say it'll outperform SPCX over the next 10 years isn't convincing enough, imo. Going from 0 to 100 is one thing, going from 100 to 10000 is another. That's why OP brought up their market caps, which are currently in roughly the same ballpark.

To be fair, both have room to grow, but there's no way to know which one will grow faster. There's very little basis for claiming one will outperform the other. At this point, it's all speculation based on each person's own expectations.

[FinneysTrueVision]

I THINK spacex wins this race in under 5 years.

Elon’s other company, Tesla, has only gone up 0.6x in the past 5 years. It might not be the perfect comparison because SpaceX is in AI and space, but I still think it’s being too optimistic to expect them to go to $1000 in the next 5 years. SpaceX started with a very high valuation so their upside potential is going to be limited, in my opinion, though it could still beat Bitcoin’s returns depending on how much demand there is for AI.

For long-term holding, being the hot new thing isn’t as important as having solid fundamentals. Looking towards the future, a portfolio with investments in the biggest cryptocurrency and stock in one of the largest AI companies is likely to perform better than leaving money in a bank or buying treasuries. I don’t see one as being better when you can diversify into multiple things.

[yudi09]

That might be an interesting question I’ve chosen to post here.
As for how interesting it is, I just smile and have no reason to choose any other answer when assessing whether SpaceX will reach 1,000 faster than Bitcoin reaches 500,000—because so far, I’ve only been following and caring about how fast or slow Bitcoin’s price movements are.
Digital assets—Bitcoin and one or two altcoins—are what I’m trying to hold onto until that time comes, and it’s that hope in these assets that has kept me going until now and will likely continue to do so.

[Curious T]

I get your point, and I'm a realist too. I'm not into wishful thinking. I don't even believe Btc will hit $1m in the next 20 years or overtake gold someday, as many people seem to think it will. But I'm still pretty optimistic about Btc reaching $500k within the next 10 years.

If you believe Bitcoin can get to $500,000 in the next 10 years, then why don't you believe it can get to $1 million in 20 years? What is stopping it from doubling in ten years if it has already gotten to $500,000? If I believe it can get to $500,000 in ten years, then I will believe it can get to 1 million in 20 years. For me, I would be very surprised if Bitcoin gets to $500,000 in the next ten years. I know a lot of people expect that to happen, but I'm looking at the price that Bitcoin is now and the price it would be in the next bull season. That is why I said it depends on the next ATH after the next halving.

[Smack That Ace]

If you believe Bitcoin can get to $500,000 in the next 10 years, then why don't you believe it can get to $1 million in 20 years? What is stopping it from doubling in ten years if it has already gotten to $500,000? If I believe it can get to $500,000 in ten years, then I will believe it can get to 1 million in 20 years. For me, I would be very surprised if Bitcoin gets to $500,000 in the next ten years. I know a lot of people expect that to happen, but I'm looking at the price that Bitcoin is now and the price it would be in the next bull season. That is why I said it depends on the next ATH after the next halving.

Well, I reckon Bitcoin has huge potential, but like any other asset, that potential has a ceiling. It's not unlimited.

At $500k, BTC's marketcap would already be over $10 trillion. For an asset that big, doubling again to $1 million over the following decade isn't a given. It would require demand for Bitcoin and adoption to keep growing strongly over the long term. But as you already agreed, growth tends to slow as an asset gets bigger.

Unlike gold , which is used in every industry and is in extremely high demand. Bitcoin's demand , on the other hand, is still mainly driven by  investment and its role  as a store of value. That's why I doubt it'll ever flip gold.

[drangos]

I'd be more inclined to Bitcoin as it has been around longer, and the market is open to everyone in the world. There's a lot of potential for SpaceX to grow, particularly with the launch of Starlink and Starship. But also execution and future expectations. The bottom line is that a significant rise in share price does not by itself mean it is a good buy. Because other factors, such as a company's valuation and a dilution of shares, are also relevant. There are risks with Bitcoin. Too and neither outcome is certain. My personal opinion would be to compare the risks, not determine which asset will reach the target first and foremost.

[philipma1957]

I'd be more inclined to Bitcoin as it has been around longer, and the market is open to everyone in the world. There's a lot of potential for SpaceX to grow, particularly with the launch of Starlink and Starship. But also execution and future expectations. The bottom line is that a significant rise in share price does not by itself mean it is a good buy. Because other factors, such as a company's valuation and a dilution of shares, are also relevant. There are risks with Bitcoin. Too and neither outcome is certain. My personal opinion would be to compare the risks, not determine which asset will reach the target first and foremost.

Risk comparison involves upside and downside.

So thinking does spacex go to 1k faster than btc goes to 500k is a large part of risk comparison .

Obviously  there are other ways to assess risk.

the down side take would be does spacex drop to 67.5 or does btc drop to 40k.

Frankly as long as Musk is alive and healthy the downside for spacex is likely less than the down side for BTC.

but that would be a new poll.

[I_Anime]

Both are good investment. Though I will still go with bitcoin . Yes, Bitcoin has been around for quite some time now, and it has performed really well over the years. I know many out there are waiting for something new, and there’s nothing wrong with that. But just know that Bitcoin hasn’t even come close to reaching its full potential yet.

Now talking about SpaceX, like I said, it’s not a bad investment either, especially in this era where AI and technology are developing rapidly. Though for now I’m focusing more on building , those that have already gotten far in their bitcoin investment can use as a form of diversification. Because best things to diversify in are stock , real estate, and other form of investment, than putting your funds in some kind of shitcoin.

I'd be more inclined to Bitcoin as it has been around longer, and the market is open to everyone in the world. There's a lot of potential for SpaceX to grow, particularly with the launch of Starlink and Starship. But also execution and future expectations. The bottom line is that a significant rise in share price does not by itself mean it is a good buy. Because other factors, such as a company's valuation and a dilution of shares, are also relevant. There are risks with Bitcoin. Too and neither outcome is certain. My personal opinion would be to compare the risks, not determine which asset will reach the target first and foremost.

Risk comparison involves upside and downside.

So thinking does spacex go to 1k faster than btc goes to 500k is a large part of risk comparison .

Obviously  there are other ways to assess risk.

the down side take would be does spacex drop to 67.5 or does btc drop to 40k.

Frankly as long as Musk is alive and healthy the downside for spacex is likely less than the down side for BTC.

but that would be a new poll.

Both are actually high volatility asset . Though I can see your point about spacex reaching 1k and stuff , which make it fit way better when come to shortterm profit . But longterm bitcoin quite better especially with the decentralized feature.

[philipma1957]

Both are good investment. Though I will still go with bitcoin . Yes, Bitcoin has been around for quite some time now, and it has performed really well over the years. I know many out there are waiting for something new, and there’s nothing wrong with that. But just know that Bitcoin hasn’t even come close to reaching its full potential yet.

Now talking about SpaceX, like I said, it’s not a bad investment either, especially in this era where AI and technology are developing rapidly. Though for now I’m focusing more on building , those that have already gotten far in their bitcoin investment can use as a form of diversification. Because best things to diversify in are stock , real estate, and other form of investment, than putting your funds in some kind of shitcoin.

I'd be more inclined to Bitcoin as it has been around longer, and the market is open to everyone in the world. There's a lot of potential for SpaceX to grow, particularly with the launch of Starlink and Starship. But also execution and future expectations. The bottom line is that a significant rise in share price does not by itself mean it is a good buy. Because other factors, such as a company's valuation and a dilution of shares, are also relevant. There are risks with Bitcoin. Too and neither outcome is certain. My personal opinion would be to compare the risks, not determine which asset will reach the target first and foremost.

Risk comparison involves upside and downside.

So thinking does spacex go to 1k faster than btc goes to 500k is a large part of risk comparison .

Obviously  there are other ways to assess risk.

the down side take would be does spacex drop to 67.5 or does btc drop to 40k.

Frankly as long as Musk is alive and healthy the downside for spacex is likely less than the down side for BTC.

but that would be a new poll.

Both are actually high volatility asset . Though I can see your point about spacex reaching 1k and stuff , which make it fit way better when come to shortterm profit . But longterm bitcoin quite better especially with the decentralized feature.

I hold the two with more in BTC than spacex. I am trying to be balanced as we in the USA approach the Nov elections.