When will the lowest price of the current cycle fall below the previous cycle ?

[TastyChillySauce00]

Don't easily consider random pattern as something that bitcoin must follow, things have changed, we have more institutional investors than ever. This year's bitcoin bear market is going to be shallow because there is no black swan that could bring the price down and bring massive sell off.

No more celcius, no more FTX, even hacking incident that caused some exchanges to lost hundred millions to billions still get absorbed, besides we're getting non stop crypto development on the US government side. The market is stronger than ever therefore $58,000 is potentially the lowest it could ever be in this cycle.

[alastantiger]

This hasn't happened before, but sooner or later, the lowest Bitcoin price of the current halving cycle must fall below the lowest price of the previous cycle.
When do you think this will happen first time?

This is going to cause a lot of panicking if this happens because it means Bitcoin will be falling more than it has ever done, if the previous cycle lowest price was $20,000, you mean this current bear market should fall below $20,000 and I do not think that can ever happen. What is possible if for Bitcoin to always fall to the previous highest price or slightly below it and not go too further down because that is going to cause a lot of confusion in the market and the market is already too volatile. I can not imagine how many traders that their positions are going to be liquidated if that happens. This current bear market has already gone below last market highest price when Bitcoin fell below $60,000 and anything more is going to be much for the market to handle and I think that is why the market recovered quickly after it went that low.

[Loyang]

Yes, it may go down, I think it is not a big concern. Because whenever we hear about wars and wars, if more countries get involved in wars, then this may happen or it may happen for some other reason. The price of Bitcoin fluctuates depending on many things and if some of these reasons are seen together, then your idea may become a reality.

But currently, the possibility of this happening seems to be very low. Because the demand for Bitcoin is increasing a lot and everyone is attracted to Bitcoin due to the weakness of the banking system. If we ever see something much better than Bitcoin or see further improvement in the banking system, then this may be expected.

[danherbias07]

I believe that the time it went under $60k was the bottom. I don't see Bitcoin going back down there. It will need to be a big event that will probably pull it downwards, like the shutdown of major trading platforms or maybe some institutional investors filing for bankruptcy.
Still, I do believe that the lowest amount per Bitcoin is at that point, and the chances of that happening again are very low. But that is just my opinion and based only on my own prediction of how the market behaves. Plus, the ETF will keep its stability, and those downward jumps should not happen again.

[pooya87]

This hasn't happened before, but sooner or later, the lowest Bitcoin price of the current halving cycle must fall below the lowest price of the previous cycle.

There is no such thing as "must" in markets, not to mention that conditions of the whole cycle has to be the same for the same thing to repeat. Take a look at those numbers again:

                Highest      Lowest
I halving         26.15       2.24
II halving        1132        165
III halving     19345       3232
IV halving      67549     15760
V halving     124748

Check the rise in each cycle compared to the previous "high"
$26 to $1132 -> 4253%
$1132 to $19345 -> 16988%
$19345 to $67549 -> 249%
$67549 to $124748 -> 84%

Since the rise is tiny compared to previous cycles, you cannot expect the drop to be as big as before. So the drop "must" be tiny as well.

[MusaMohamed]

There is no such thing as "must" in markets, not to mention that conditions of the whole cycle has to be the same for the same thing to repeat.

Bitcoin market and market makers don't have to satisfy anyone in the market which is zero-sum game and there are winners and losers with profit and loss. Intelligent and experienced people will do right things, then get profit, the others do bad things and get losses.

Take a look at those numbers again:

                Highest      Lowest
I halving         26.15       2.24
II halving        1132        165
III halving     19345       3232
IV halving      67549     15760
V halving     124748

Check the rise in each cycle compared to the previous "high"
$26 to $1132 -> 4253%
$1132 to $19345 -> 16988%
$19345 to $67549 -> 249%
$67549 to $124748 -> 84%

Since the rise is tiny compared to previous cycles, you cannot expect the drop to be as big as before. So the drop "must" be tiny as well.

Some different prices between yours and this one but it's not too important. The important is ROIs become smaller with cycles.
Source is from ChartsBtc.

If we can have strong belief in Bitcoin, actually DCA bitcoin with time, and hold it well over time, we will have profit. 5 years of holding bitcoin is like a time for guarantee of profit.
http://hodl.camp/

[Marykeller]

It's not gonna happen; no need to imagine such a scenario, for this current halving to have a lower price than the previous cycle(15,760).

Between the highest and lowest you stated, neither has a lower price than the previous cycle. It won't reach this current halving cycle; we will begin to see something different for Bitcoin to fall below.

Some of us have been doubting the possibility of Bitcoin falling below $50k, let alone falling below $15k. I will be the last person to accept such speculation

[M47AK16]

I am not sure what will happen in a year but as far as I understand we already saw the lowest Bitcoin value of this cycle and I don't think we will see another huge dip for Bitcoin now.

Those who accumulated Bitcoin when it was below $60k after that huge dip are the ones who'll make most profit in this cycle.

I don't think we will see another dip that will take Bitcoin's value below $50k, those who missed last opportunity want something like that but unfortunately they missed that chance.

I unfortunately have to agree with you. I think we have seen the lowest for this cycle. I am saying unfortunately because I do want to see a lot more, I wish that I did not waited and bought earlier, but I did not. I believed that, just like all other times, we would see 70%+ drop. And that means we would be around 40k at the bottom. I had my buy order for 40k, and put all I had there for a moment. I needed that money later on and all that money in the end- we are talking about a situation where it's really not that easy to handle, we are dealing with a lot of trouble.

So basically what we are dealing with right now is truly the recovery. Bitcoin will not see 40k as I imagined, and that is why I believe you are unfortunately correct.