Most Americans oppose betting on elections, government events, Reuters/Ipsos pol

[Orpichukwu]

Do you think that survey is accurate?

I do not think this kind of service is necessary. I do not see a way betting on United States presidential election can lead to manipulations.

For presidential elections, I don’t think there is any way betting on them can influence the market, but for some other minor political elections, I think there can be an effect on them, especially if the market is large and one of the contestants is greedy; they can use that to their own favour. Any election should just be banned and removed from being an option in the prediction market in my own opinion.

[danadc]

I remember the last US presidential elections and that was how prediction markets became popular in the first place as polymarket odds were used as one of the top indicators of how the election was going at the time. And that's why the results from the poll is surprising.

Unless government intervene, we will likely see US elections on prediction markets too.

I don't think that if the elections do happen, the US government will be able to interfere.  Polymarket has very good credibility; they've done things well. In fact, before placing bets, I check Polymarket because I see it as a metric for what might happen.

There are still two years to go, but it's not enough time to even begin to think about what might happen in the presidential elections. It's best to start a year earlier, as that's when I see the presidential term passing very quickly, and that's when they start ramping up their political campaigns.

[bakasabo]

Do you think that survey is accurate?

I do not think this kind of service is necessary. I do not see a way betting on United States presidential election can lead to manipulations.

For presidential elections, I don’t think there is any way betting on them can influence the market, but for some other minor political elections, I think there can be an effect on them, especially if the market is large and one of the contestants is greedy; they can use that to their own favour. Any election should just be banned and removed from being an option in the prediction market in my own opinion.

But I do think that betting market might have an effect on elections. Maybe it will be a tiny, but maybe it will make people make wrong choices. Try to imagine following situation. You havent voted yet, but before voting you went to Polymarket (just for curiosity) and learned that according to placed bets, Candidate A has more chances to win. That made you feel confused, because you were planning to vote for Candidate B. Knowing that Candidate A is more preferred, would you bet on a loser? I think in situations like that, people would vote for Candidate A, because they 1) might follow crowd opinion 2) dont want to vote for person who seems to lose. As a result, your choice is manipulated.

[PVequalNRT]

For presidential elections, I don’t think there is any way betting on them can influence the market, but for some other minor political elections, I think there can be an effect on them, especially if the market is large and one of the contestants is greedy; they can use that to their own favour. Any election should just be banned and removed from being an option in the prediction market in my own opinion.

Don't say such, this is how the politicians that are contesting for positions want us to think. There is nothing that is impossible when it comes to election day. Last time during the election, Donald Trump accused the electoral system of been manipulated and it's because they did it. They only keep those aside because they won, if they didn't win, he will sue them for damages and for trying to manipulate the presidential elections.

What you need to know is that most big casinos in US are run by politicians, even Donald Trump has a casino business, such things are common in US, it's very easy to influence results in US with elections and that is why they want to stop it now.

[Orpichukwu]

For presidential elections, I don’t think there is any way betting on them can influence the market, but for some other minor political elections, I think there can be an effect on them, especially if the market is large and one of the contestants is greedy; they can use that to their own favour. Any election should just be banned and removed from being an option in the prediction market in my own opinion.

But I do think that betting market might have an effect on elections. Maybe it will be a tiny, but maybe it will make people make wrong choices. Try to imagine following situation. You havent voted yet, but before voting you went to Polymarket (just for curiosity) and learned that according to placed bets, Candidate A has more chances to win. That made you feel confused, because you were planning to vote for Candidate B. Knowing that Candidate A is more preferred, would you bet on a loser? I think in situations like that, people would vote for Candidate A, because they 1) might follow crowd opinion 2) dont want to vote for person who seems to lose. As a result, your choice is manipulated.

I get the point you are making, and I did not think about it in that aspect, but anyone who wants to vote for a candidate should base their vote on what they know about the candidates and not base it on public opinion. That is not how elections are supposed to be, and if we are to judge based on public opinion on a prediction market, that’s different from the masses' opinion since a very low market of qualified voters places their bet.

[o48o]

Do you think that survey is accurate?

I do not think this kind of service is necessary. I do not see a way betting on United States presidential election can lead to manipulations.

For presidential elections, I don’t think there is any way betting on them can influence the market, but for some other minor political elections, I think there can be an effect on them, especially if the market is large and one of the contestants is greedy; they can use that to their own favour. Any election should just be banned and removed from being an option in the prediction market in my own opinion.

Imho elections are least corrupted by betting, and i doubt that participants would want to lose their jobs just for money. If their political positions can be waved by money, they can just be bought by rich enough people anyway. There's no need to risk it with betting, which could be eventually even investigated. They would risk their whole career as politicians.

Real problem is betting on political decisions with insider information.

[xenomorfo]

I get the point you are making, and I did not think about it in that aspect, but anyone who wants to vote for a candidate should base their vote on what they know about the candidates and not base it on public opinion. That is not how elections are supposed to be, and if we are to judge based on public opinion on a prediction market, that’s different from the masses' opinion since a very low market of qualified voters places their bet.

It should be based on a critical sense, which many do not have.
In fact you see, they voted for Trump in America and look where we are.
Wars, internally a mess thanks to ICE. What did the Americans get except slaps and kicks?

You have to vote judiciously if you believe in the state, or do like me: anarchy.

[Emeraldo]

Do you think that survey is accurate?

I do not think this kind of service is necessary. I do not see a way betting on United States presidential election can lead to manipulations.

For presidential elections, I don’t think there is any way betting on them can influence the market, but for some other minor political elections, I think there can be an effect on them, especially if the market is large and one of the contestants is greedy; they can use that to their own favour. Any election should just be banned and removed from being an option in the prediction market in my own opinion.

Manipulation is everywhere and almost in every games and if the election becomes very competitive especially in minor politics, insiders can use unofficial information to cheat the system that can make lot of gamblers  to lose their bets. Getting a ban or preventing the prediction market from providing betting options for serious elections like the presidential election, governorship elections can be a preferable oprions that will prevent people from manipulating votes just for them to have a winning bets on their stakes on the prediction market.

[General_Bitcoin]

Do you think that survey is accurate?

I do not think this kind of service is necessary. I do not see a way betting on United States presidential election can lead to manipulations.

For presidential elections, I don’t think there is any way betting on them can influence the market, but for some other minor political elections, I think there can be an effect on them, especially if the market is large and one of the contestants is greedy; they can use that to their own favour. Any election should just be banned and removed from being an option in the prediction market in my own opinion.

Manipulation is everywhere and almost in every games and if the election becomes very competitive especially in minor politics, insiders can use unofficial information to cheat the system that can make lot of gamblers  to lose their bets. Getting a ban or preventing the prediction market from providing betting options for serious elections like the presidential election, governorship elections can be a preferable oprions that will prevent people from manipulating votes just for them to have a winning bets on their stakes on the prediction market.

It seems unlikely to me that money alone can change an election (though it might be able to move the odds of a bet). I think the more important issues are (a) people believing that such predictions are indicative of the actual mood of the electorate, and (b) insider trading.

Smaller elections might be more open to price manipulation since there are fewer eyes on the ball. I’d be more concerned about transparency, insider trading, and suspicious activity monitoring than about election manipulation itself.

[salad daging]

If I were an American and also voted, I will be part of the Americans that opposed betting on elections and all forms of government events or anything related. The issue of insider information trading is very common when dealing with matters like this of public interest. Alot of reports have been received about people who make their money from selling out insider information that are not supposed to be known to the public yet. Such predictions or bets encourage bad behaviour, therefore should be banned.

Who bet on the US presidential election prediction market not only its citizens but the whole world is watching and observing it, this can be a determining policy for another country that can affect it.

As for the trail of opinions, do not know if it is held online or onfline? If online then people outside the US can do it, it's just that for me this kind of betting will not be able to stop, there have always been since a few years ago even before Polymarket existed.

[Hispo]

...

Real problem is betting on political decisions with insider information.

Abuse of insider information is not exclusive of political betting, though.
When comes to political betting and prediction markets, people may believe insider information can be more harmful than insider information in sports, for example.
As insider information in politics it is directly associated with corruption within the system of a country, that must be why there are so many people in the United States and other countries in this continent who are against betting in politics.

Alledgelly, the Trump administration is involved in abuse of insider information, that is why he and his family is alledgelly so pro prediction markets...

[Peanutswar]

Recently effectivity of having a Polymarket seems added a spice to the gamblers they now seek an opportunity to earn money with these potential bets. Its an edge here if you have an insider internally because imagine it's already a win just publicly manipulation. so basically people only have power, network, connections are the winners here in this kind of gambling. For those blinded they are still 50% chance of winnings.

[danadc]

Manipulation is everywhere and almost in every games and if the election becomes very competitive especially in minor politics, insiders can use unofficial information to cheat the system that can make lot of gamblers  to lose their bets. Getting a ban or preventing the prediction market from providing betting options for serious elections like the presidential election, governorship elections can be a preferable oprions that will prevent people from manipulating votes just for them to have a winning bets on their stakes on the prediction market.

That's true, manipulation is everywhere, and it's something politicians don't care about doing or allocating money for. I can only tell you that there's a lot of discontent in the USA. People don't say anything, especially about ICE and everything related to removing immigrants who come to work and contribute to the country. Sometimes they're treated like criminals, and that's not right at all.

Many of those deported people voted for Donald Trump, and they were kicked out of the country. I understand the need for a cleanup, but I think they should be more tactful.

[Betwrong]

~ I am very sure that so many Americans made alot of money from these government events, why should anyone wanted them gone? These events are cool and still better than placing bets on disasters around the world.

Maybe because not everyone was making a lot of money from it? If you have many millions participating in something, it can't be pleasant for everyone, there always will be those who's dissatisfied. And if they are the same people who make laws, they can forbid something just because they don't like it. But actually I don't think this is the case here. I believe the poll reflects the real situation: most Americans oppose betting on elections. But it doesn't mean millions of people who want to bet on elections should be deprived of the right to do so.