A simplified estimate for a $100,000 BTC

[Roy Badami]

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/high_tech_telecoms_internet/internet_matters

The reference above estimates today's internet contribution to global GDP as 3.4%.

Using an order of magnitude estimate of global GDP of 100 trillion USD, the internet's contribution today is 3 trillion USD.

Using an optimistic guess that a fully evolved BTC economy will embody 50% of the internet economy the optimistic fully evolved BTC "GDP" will reach 1.5 trillion USD.

Using 15 million BTC to make the math easy, one BTC will be worth 100,000 USD in a fully evolved BTC economy.

(Applying this argument to today's price results in an estimate of 0.2% of today's internet economy transacted in BTC.  This is a huge overestimate, which I think can be explained by today's BTC price reflecting investment based on the potential of BTC.)

I think you forgot to divide by the velocity of money.

Put another way, GDP is the value of goods and services sold in a year.  But the same coins might be used for more than one transaction in a year, so a 1.5 trillion USD contribution to GDP doesn't mean a bitcoin money suppy ('market cap') or 1.5 trillian dollars.  Some coins might be used in many transactions in the space of a year - hence requiring a significantly lower valuation to be able to account for all those transactions.  Of course, this is balanced by the fact that other coins won't be spent at all in any given year.

roy

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[Bitcopia]

Credit cards are worthless now, since fiat is now worth 0 BTC, because the CEO of SSL has stolen all the fiat in the world and the banking ponzie has crashed.

Confirmed.

SSL as Secure Sockets Layer?

Anyway, I have always wondered where the word debit card comes from. I think it comes from DEBT. Credit cards are DEBT CARDS. Debt sucks. thus credit cards will die.

Debit cards debit the balance of your checking account. Credit cards credit the balance of your debt.

I agree, debt is almost always a terrible idea, particularly credit card debt.

[TooDumbForBitcoin]

MORE:
only 25% in circulation
brick and mortar use

LESS:
too hard for mainstream
banned in some places
BTC velocity not taken into account

[Siegfried]

It'll never happen. For the vast majority of consumers, using credit cards for internet commerce is safer, more convenient, and cheaper.

Because technology never evolves and people never adapt. 

[redhawk979]

Credit cards are worthless now, since fiat is now worth 0 BTC, because the CEO of SSL has stolen all the fiat in the world and the banking ponzie has crashed.

Confirmed.

SSL as Secure Sockets Layer?

Anyway, I have always wondered where the word debit card comes from. I think it comes from DEBT. Credit cards are DEBT CARDS. Debt sucks. thus credit cards will die.

Until Bitcoin hits the point of simplicity that I have with a debit/credit card (literally a swipe and 5 second wait), its going to struggle to go mainstream. People are overestimating how easily they believe the general populace would adopt Bitcoin without things like this.

You will be getting google glass then? Nod twice and you just bought whatever you looked at.

You assume that I'm unhappy with my current process, which I'm not. Unless there is a major upgrade to my current swipe process, I (or the average consumer) don't need to switch to something marginally simpler.

[Bit_Happy]

A simplified estimate for a $100,000 BTC
Even more simple:
Check back when the rally has started, and this thread will seem more realistic. 

[Ibian]

Credit cards are worthless now, since fiat is now worth 0 BTC, because the CEO of SSL has stolen all the fiat in the world and the banking ponzie has crashed.

Confirmed.

SSL as Secure Sockets Layer?

Anyway, I have always wondered where the word debit card comes from. I think it comes from DEBT. Credit cards are DEBT CARDS. Debt sucks. thus credit cards will die.

Until Bitcoin hits the point of simplicity that I have with a debit/credit card (literally a swipe and 5 second wait), its going to struggle to go mainstream. People are overestimating how easily they believe the general populace would adopt Bitcoin without things like this.

You will be getting google glass then? Nod twice and you just bought whatever you looked at.

You assume that I'm unhappy with my current process, which I'm not. Unless there is a major upgrade to my current swipe process, I (or the average consumer) don't need to switch to something marginally simpler.

You said it needs to be as simple as plastic. Nodding is simpler than that. You mentioned nothing about happiness.

[redhawk979]

Credit cards are worthless now, since fiat is now worth 0 BTC, because the CEO of SSL has stolen all the fiat in the world and the banking ponzie has crashed.

Confirmed.

SSL as Secure Sockets Layer?

Anyway, I have always wondered where the word debit card comes from. I think it comes from DEBT. Credit cards are DEBT CARDS. Debt sucks. thus credit cards will die.

Until Bitcoin hits the point of simplicity that I have with a debit/credit card (literally a swipe and 5 second wait), its going to struggle to go mainstream. People are overestimating how easily they believe the general populace would adopt Bitcoin without things like this.

You will be getting google glass then? Nod twice and you just bought whatever you looked at.

You assume that I'm unhappy with my current process, which I'm not. Unless there is a major upgrade to my current swipe process, I (or the average consumer) don't need to switch to something marginally simpler.

You said it needs to be as simple as plastic. Nodding is simpler than that. You mentioned nothing about happiness.

I don't understand your point. I said as simple as a debit/credit card process. You're implying I have to go simpler than that? It has to be a simplicity mass majority of users are comfortable with, was my point.