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Author Topic: Warning: bubble #2 might be forming  (Read 3794 times)
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December 31, 2011, 01:18:04 PM
 #21

Bubble #2 in progress.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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December 31, 2011, 01:21:04 PM
 #22

I'm not hoping for a repeat of June but it's certainly possible that we will see a new bubble. Bitcoin could bubble many times before it calms down because we simply need a higher market cap for more stability. If Bitcoin gains widespread popularity for any type of usage we will be looking at three digit prices and probably four digit prices eventually. It's quite flawed to think that there won't be way more bubbles in that case. If Bitcoin stays as a small niche, then it's a different story however.

I see Bitcoin as a massively revolutionary type of money both as a store of value and a medium of exchange, it would be quite disappointing if it didn't gain a large foothold in at least some possible usages. And there are many possibilities. And I strongly disagree that there isn't a massive inflow of users on the way, Bitcoin already got some pretty decent press with the "Bitcoin coming back from the dead" news but that is just the beginning.

If the rally manages to break $5 and eventually further, a massive amount of smart investors will start looking at Bitcoin with very large interest. It's not just a fluke if it comes back after a massive crash. This will create the kind of interest that will make May/June events look like nothing in comparison. This is going to happen with high likelyhood if we continue to rally beyond $5 in the short term.

As far as the influx of regular users, it's hard to say when and if there is a massive increase. It will depend on the marketing, acceptance, development of Bitcoin etc. But investors will come aboard without any of that if the price technicals start to look as good as they will if we continue to rally. There will be a lot of press involved in this as well.



geez, do u dictate these posts or something?
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December 31, 2011, 01:22:37 PM
 #23

Call me when bitcoin reach 30 again  Cheesy
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December 31, 2011, 01:23:48 PM
 #24

Call me when bitcoin reach 30 again  Cheesy
Yeah, I might start to think about diversifying then as well.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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December 31, 2011, 01:25:14 PM
 #25

Call me when bitcoin reach 30 again  Cheesy

buy when high, sell when low!
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December 31, 2011, 01:26:15 PM
 #26

Call me when bitcoin reach 30 again  Cheesy

As others have pointed out, getting to those numbers is going to be much, much more difficult than before.  There's going to be more selling pressure on the way up in addition to there being more standing orders on the order book this time around.  It'd take ~$2,000,000 to move the price that high right now.  In reality it's going to take several times that amount as people actively sell.
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December 31, 2011, 01:29:20 PM
 #27

It's a good thing, another bubble is not what bitcoin need, it will only hurt it once it explode
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December 31, 2011, 01:30:13 PM
 #28

Call me when bitcoin reach 30 again  Cheesy

As others have pointed out, getting to those numbers is going to be much, much more difficult than before.  There's going to be more selling pressure on the way up in addition to there being more standing orders on the order book this time around.  It'd take ~$2,000,000 to move the price that high right now.  In reality it's going to take several times that amount as people actively sell.
I think it’ll be easier as Bitcoin now has a wider reach and proven that it will stay. The peak volume we had at the top was ridiculous, so it won’t be too hard to surpass that. I’m expecting people to get euphoric and withdraw/put their asks much higher at some point.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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December 31, 2011, 01:37:12 PM
 #29

Call me when bitcoin reach 30 again  Cheesy

As others have pointed out, getting to those numbers is going to be much, much more difficult than before.  There's going to be more selling pressure on the way up in addition to there being more standing orders on the order book this time around.  It'd take ~$2,000,000 to move the price that high right now.  In reality it's going to take several times that amount as people actively sell.
I think it’ll be easier as Bitcoin now has a wider reach and proven that it will stay. The peak volume we had at the top was ridiculous, so it won’t be too hard to surpass that. I’m expecting people to get euphoric and withdraw/put their asks much higher at some point.

yes, as usual Proudhon has it backwards. 

i never sold as we tanked.  in fact, i accumulated more.  and i certainly will NOT sell on the way back up to 32 as i'm expecting it to go way beyond that to at least gold parity.

the gold bubble is over and all that money is going to come here.
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December 31, 2011, 01:39:51 PM
 #30

Call me when bitcoin reach 30 again  Cheesy

As others have pointed out, getting to those numbers is going to be much, much more difficult than before.  There's going to be more selling pressure on the way up in addition to there being more standing orders on the order book this time around.  It'd take ~$2,000,000 to move the price that high right now.  In reality it's going to take several times that amount as people actively sell.

Oh no! Two million dollars! (too bad you can't see my Dr. Evil gesture right now) :-)

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December 31, 2011, 01:42:32 PM
 #31

yes, as usual Proudhon has it backwards. 

i never sold as we tanked.  in fact, i accumulated more.  and i certainly will NOT sell on the way back up to 32 as i'm expecting it to go way beyond that to at least gold parity.

the gold bubble is over and all that money is going to come here.
I confess, I sold …

… only to buy more cheaper (the capitulation sells were always good for at least short term greens). Grin

Agree with your attitude. I will not sell as long as Bitcoin has such a ridiculously low market cap, except when I’m certain I can buy more lower.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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December 31, 2011, 03:07:02 PM
 #32

au contraire.  most of the large geek holders of btc already coughed up all their btc on the way down not understanding the fundamental dynamics of what they had created.  these have now moved into more strategic non techie investors who will not be shaken out of their positions easily on the way up.

Hehe. You're hoping for a bubble, aren't you? Keep hoping...
Non techie investors. Love it. Who else but a geek would involve themselves with bitcoin, even now?
Even many of us 'smart' folk still are failing to understand what we have created, so what hope is there for the meatheads?
It's the same people with the same money and the same coins (plus some new ones that have yet to hit the markets).

In the day, I'm a financial professional working in a very conservative asset management company.
In the night, I'm buying bitcoin.

I'm not geeky.

16SvwJtQET7mkHZFFbJpgPaDA1Pxtmbm5P
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December 31, 2011, 03:10:15 PM
 #33

au contraire.  most of the large geek holders of btc already coughed up all their btc on the way down not understanding the fundamental dynamics of what they had created.  these have now moved into more strategic non techie investors who will not be shaken out of their positions easily on the way up.

Hehe. You're hoping for a bubble, aren't you? Keep hoping...
Non techie investors. Love it. Who else but a geek would involve themselves with bitcoin, even now?
Even many of us 'smart' folk still are failing to understand what we have created, so what hope is there for the meatheads?
It's the same people with the same money and the same coins (plus some new ones that have yet to hit the markets).

In the day, I'm a financial professional working in a very conservative asset management company.
In the night, I'm buying bitcoin.

I'm not geeky.

Do you know of any other financial professionals messing around in the bitcoin market?
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December 31, 2011, 03:24:14 PM
 #34

proudhon, i see your avatar has changed..

everything else fine? Smiley

greets
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December 31, 2011, 03:26:10 PM
 #35

au contraire.  most of the large geek holders of btc already coughed up all their btc on the way down not understanding the fundamental dynamics of what they had created.  these have now moved into more strategic non techie investors who will not be shaken out of their positions easily on the way up.

Hehe. You're hoping for a bubble, aren't you? Keep hoping...
Non techie investors. Love it. Who else but a geek would involve themselves with bitcoin, even now?
Even many of us 'smart' folk still are failing to understand what we have created, so what hope is there for the meatheads?
It's the same people with the same money and the same coins (plus some new ones that have yet to hit the markets).

In the day, I'm a financial professional working in a very conservative asset management company.
In the night, I'm buying bitcoin.

I'm not geeky.

Do you know of any other financial professionals messing around in the bitcoin market?

i see you haven't been paying attention.
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December 31, 2011, 03:28:03 PM
 #36

proudhon, i see your avatar has changed..

everything else fine? Smiley

greets

Yep.  All in all things are going well.  I am, as you can imagine, surprised by the movement today.  Sold a little during the past few days, so that's sort of a bummer, but I'm content to wait it out.  I don't think buying back in now is the right move.
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December 31, 2011, 03:31:20 PM
 #37

proudhon, i see your avatar has changed..

everything else fine? Smiley

greets

Yep.  All in all things are going well.  I am, as you can imagine, surprised by the movement today.  Sold a little during the past few days, so that's sort of a bummer, but I'm content to wait it out.  I don't think buying back in now is the right move.

look at the big picture:  up, down, up.  all long periods of time.
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December 31, 2011, 03:32:48 PM
 #38

ElectricMucus has unfortunately been away ("RIP Bitcoin") but his posts still speak.  As I recall, he was a huge bear.
Even he says there is a possible market reversal Grin

Revised Nagle™ Chart



We broke through the short term accelerating downtrend and are about to challenge the overall downtrend. It's a 45 period exponential, added a 90 version to indicate possible market reversal.

RIP ElectricMucus.

(BFL)^2 < 0
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December 31, 2011, 04:03:54 PM
 #39

proudhon, i see your avatar has changed..

everything else fine? Smiley

greets

Yep.  All in all things are going well.  I am, as you can imagine, surprised by the movement today.  Sold a little during the past few days, so that's sort of a bummer, but I'm content to wait it out.  I don't think buying back in now is the right move.

zhouthonged? Smiley

happend do me also once^

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December 31, 2011, 04:14:56 PM
 #40

Gee, thanks for the 'warning'.

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