So, what will happen …

[N12]

… once people begin to realize that not the rise, but the fall was manipulated?

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[cypherdoc]

… once people begin to realize that not the rise, but the fall was manipulated?

very, very good point.

[cypherdoc]

… once people begin to realize that not the rise, but the fall was manipulated?

very, very good point.

short selling at Bitcoinica implemented in September was also a big factor leading everyone to believe that the death knell was near.  while it hurt alot of longs the last few months, i can't help but think alot of the shorts have been decimated. in fact, i'm sure of it.

[proudhon]

… once people begin to realize that not the rise, but the fall was manipulated?

I think it's more complicated than that.  The depth of the fall is a combination of profit taking, manipulation, and just a lot of bad shit happening all at once.  On the bright side, you might say that with the infrastructure getting more robust it's unlikely that again all those things will conspire together at once.

In other news, I said several times in the past months that we wouldn't see prices above $5 for the rest of 2011, and it looks like I'm about to be wrong on the last possible day I could, even if only momentarily.

[cypherdoc]

… once people begin to realize that not the rise, but the fall was manipulated?

I think it's more complicated than that.  The depth of the fall is a combination of profit taking, manipulation, and just a lot of bad shit happening all at once.  On the bright side, you might say that with the infrastructure getting more robust it's unlikely that again all those things will conspire together at once.

In other news, I said several times in the past months that we wouldn't see prices above $5 for the rest of 2011, and it looks like I'm about to be wrong on the last possible day I could, even if only momentarily.

Man, that would have been an awesome betting scheme!

[Gabi]

… once people begin to realize that not the rise, but the fall was manipulated?

Clever question indeed

[proudhon]

… once people begin to realize that not the rise, but the fall was manipulated?

very, very good point.

short selling at Bitcoinica implemented in September was also a big factor leading everyone to believe that the death knell was near.  while it hurt alot of longs the last few months, i can't help but think alot of the shorts have been decimated. in fact, i'm sure of it.

That's a good point too.  We had profit taking, lots of bad shit (hacking, thefts, etc.), manipulation, and short selling.

[N12]

… once people begin to realize that not the rise, but the fall was manipulated?

very, very good point.

short selling at Bitcoinica implemented in September was also a big factor leading everyone to believe that the death knell was near.  while it hurt alot of longs the last few months, i can't help but think alot of the shorts have been decimated. in fact, i'm sure of it.

I think I agree with you on shorting at this early stage of BTC, although it surely would have been a help in May/June.

[N12]

And to answer my own question: I think we might be seeing a REAL bubble if this happens, not just with geek lunch money.

[BTCurious]

And to answer my own question: I think we might be seeing a REAL bubble if this happens, not just with geek lunch money.

Like a real tangy chewing gum version?

[cypherdoc]

And to answer my own question: I think we might be seeing a REAL bubble if this happens, not just with geek lunch money.

Like a real tangy chewing gum version?

the real sticky kind.

[Mageant]

… once people begin to realize that not the rise, but the fall was manipulated?

I will says thanks to the manipulators because the fall enabled me to buy a lot more Bitcoins!
 

[gewure]

me to. i know own a shitload of bitcoin, i am damn fucking rich, nobody is gonna stop me, i own all the fucking bitcoin ze fuck!

85!

poor student is poor

[Cluster2k]

So, what is the logic behind suddenly forcing the price up from $4.25 to $4.99 in an instant?  I can't think of one, except forced buying through Bitcoinica or someone playing the thin market (New Year's Eve and all).  I can't think of a real reason why someone would want a whole lot of bitcoins suddenly for a real world use.

[Serge]

So, what is the logic behind suddenly forcing the price up from $4.25 to $4.99 in an instant?  I can't think of one, except forced buying through Bitcoinica or someone playing the thin market (New Year's Eve and all).  I can't think of a real reason why someone would want a whole lot of bitcoins suddenly for a real world use.

low volume + people smarter about their bitcoins

[cypherdoc]

So, what is the logic behind suddenly forcing the price up from $4.25 to $4.99 in an instant?  I can't think of one, except forced buying through Bitcoinica or someone playing the thin market (New Year's Eve and all).  I can't think of a real reason why someone would want a whole lot of bitcoins suddenly for a real world use.

for Bears, the logic will never be there.

[ineededausername]

So, what is the logic behind suddenly forcing the price up from $4.25 to $4.99 in an instant?  I can't think of one, except forced buying through Bitcoinica or someone playing the thin market (New Year's Eve and all).  I can't think of a real reason why someone would want a whole lot of bitcoins suddenly for a real world use.

for Bears, the logic will never be there.

I'm now dredging up old Nagle posts to show people what happens to permabears:

You want to see an "unbroken trend"? Look at the 30 day moving average, the purple line:



Now that's an unbroken trend, going steadily down for two months now.

Look at that unbroken trend... oh wait. 

[piramida]

So, what is the logic behind suddenly forcing the price up from $4.25 to $4.99 in an instant?  I can't think of one, except forced buying through Bitcoinica or someone playing the thin market.

It was a 200k buy, some small investor bought a little bitcoin to put aside, and that would happen more and more often as world economy instabilty increases. Rich people buy useless things like homes at 100mil to diversify their holdings, smarter rich people can also invest some small money - car price really - into bitcoin. Don't always suspect market manipulation, small time speculators never buy at market price, they set bid/ask orders.

The big buy at market price can mean only one thing - someone does not really care about several cents difference, either a short squeeze (not yesterday, it was out of the blue) or someone investing long-term.

[payb.tc]

me to. i know own a shitload of bitcoin, i am damn fucking rich, nobody is gonna stop me, i own all the fucking bitcoin ze fuck!

85!

poor student is poor

+0.1%

[N12]

Are people beginning to realize? I think it will take a bit longer. 1-2 doublings from here. Then, we’ll start seeing the media go crazy again.