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Author Topic: Is bitcoin a buy at these levels?  (Read 2051 times)
ampere9765
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April 09, 2014, 10:41:18 PM
 #21

I am legitimately concerned about prospects for demand on western exchanges in the coming months. I sense that many traders/hodlers expect a huge run up to develop soon. What if it doesn't?

Traders won't cause a bubble, we need new money, new blood, new suckers
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April 09, 2014, 10:42:29 PM
 #22

In terms of buying at current prices in the 450s with USD through Coinbase. Thoughts?

A good purchase since this is near the end of the bottom in my opinion before it begins another new cycle

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April 09, 2014, 10:52:05 PM
 #23

In terms of buying at current prices in the 450s with USD through Coinbase. Thoughts?

As far as chart history could be used as an indicator, a downcross of the 1d SMA 50/200 does not imply a good buying opportunity.

Of course it could bounce back shortly to the lower $500s, but price within the next 2-3 months will most likely continue to decline.



MA crossovers are pretty crude TA... not really that useful even in a highly technical and liquid market such as forex.
...and even less applicable in the Bitcoin market.

Opposite seems to be true:

The less liquid a market, the higher volatility around MAs and COs.

MAs describe sentiment over a period of time. COs reflect a shift/reversal in sentiment.

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April 09, 2014, 11:21:34 PM
 #24

I have one simple rule:  Buy more bitcoin.

If circumstances ever seem overwhelming, and problems mount, such that I begin to question everything, I fall back on a second rule:  Buy more bitcoin.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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April 09, 2014, 11:24:51 PM
 #25

I see no harm in waiting another week to see if anything new comes out of China. If not, then I'd buy shortly after that.

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April 09, 2014, 11:26:02 PM
 #26

Some very well respected people on this forum have said that these prices are "rock bottom" right now.  Also, that the trend line, which has been accurate for the past couple of years, shows that the price should be around $900 right now.  It is always best to buy when we are under the trend line.  So it is a great time to buy.

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ampere9765
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April 09, 2014, 11:31:09 PM
 #27

Some very well respected people on this forum have said that these prices are "rock bottom" right now.  Also, that the trend line, which has been accurate for the past couple of years, shows that the price should be around $900 right now.  It is always best to buy when we are under the trend line.  So it is a great time to buy.

Trend lines are great... until they break

See 2011

Yeah, yeah, "it's 2014, not 2011" -- well if your analysis is heavily colored by fundamentals, then there is little room for trend lines
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April 09, 2014, 11:33:00 PM
 #28

Some very well respected people on this forum have said that these prices are "rock bottom" right now.  Also, that the trend line, which has been accurate for the past couple of years, shows that the price should be around $900 right now.  It is always best to buy when we are under the trend line.  So it is a great time to buy.

Trend lines are great... until they break

See 2011

Yeah, yeah, "it's 2014, not 2011" -- well if your analysis is heavily colored by fundamentals, then there is little room for trend lines

True. Trend lines are not perfect.  I have purchased over the trend line a few times though so it is better to use them as a gauge then to completely ignore them I have learned.

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April 09, 2014, 11:36:07 PM
 #29

I am legitimately concerned about prospects for demand on western exchanges in the coming months. I sense that many traders/hodlers expect a huge run up to develop soon. What if it doesn't?

Traders won't cause a bubble, we need new money, new blood, new suckers

The "new suckers" (as you so delicately describe them) are VC investors pouring big money into BTC companies.
The new boom cycle has already started.  Smiley
ampere9765
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April 09, 2014, 11:45:23 PM
 #30

I am legitimately concerned about prospects for demand on western exchanges in the coming months. I sense that many traders/hodlers expect a huge run up to develop soon. What if it doesn't?

Traders won't cause a bubble, we need new money, new blood, new suckers

The "new suckers" (as you so delicately describe them) are VC investors pouring big money into BTC companies.
The new boom cycle has already started.  Smiley

No. Not at all

Investing in BTC companies/infrastructure has fuck all to do with buying bitcoins

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April 09, 2014, 11:52:25 PM
 #31

The downtrend is still 100% intact.
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April 10, 2014, 12:12:23 AM
 #32

Bitcoin is never a buy. Whoever wanted bitcoin, has it. Speculators now think 450 is expensive. They say today 350 is cheap. But at 350 they'll wait for 200.

Nobody cares about BTC, but about fiat. And even the long term bulls want more BTC because they have more leverage in terms of fiat.

But every now and then we get MyBitcoin and MtGox incidents that level off things. So, don't worry, even if you profit today by buying low, you have all the chances of the exchange being hacked, run off, your wallet stolen somehow etc.

Wobber, what happened in the four years that you have been a member of this forum that made you so bitter?

According to your posting history, in 2010 you were in a position to buy 50 thousand bitcoin - and if in fact you did so and held on to them until today, the coins would be worth a total of 22 million USD !

Hi. I want to buy more than 50.000 BTC but at the lowest price.
I'd like to buy them in a bulk, but if you can offer a good prices for bulks of 10.000, 5000 or even 1000 I will consider buying.
I am waiting for the best offer. Thank you and Merry Xmas!
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April 10, 2014, 12:52:37 AM
Last edit: April 10, 2014, 01:12:52 AM by jonald_fyookball
 #33

In terms of buying at current prices in the 450s with USD through Coinbase. Thoughts?

As far as chart history could be used as an indicator, a downcross of the 1d SMA 50/200 does not imply a good buying opportunity.

Of course it could bounce back shortly to the lower $500s, but price within the next 2-3 months will most likely continue to decline.



MA crossovers are pretty crude TA... not really that useful even in a highly technical and liquid market such as forex.
...and even less applicable in the Bitcoin market.

Opposite seems to be true:

The less liquid a market, the higher volatility around MAs and COs.

MAs describe sentiment over a period of time. COs reflect a shift/reversal in sentiment.



All technical indicators (except volume) are derived from price.  Price does not behave a certain way "around" arbitrary moving average crossovers.  A less liquid market means price can be more easily moved by smaller orders and volume, which means technical analysis goes right out the window when someone decides to buy or sell.  Even good technical analysis is only right 60% of the time in most cases.  

The MA crossover the poster spoke of is doing nothing more than indicating that price has been moving down, which is already obvious.  

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April 10, 2014, 01:29:51 AM
 #34

The downtrend is still 100% intact.

What goes down, must come up
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April 10, 2014, 04:59:07 PM
 #35

The downtrend is still 100% intact.
What goes down, must come up
Yes, but it may be a long long time until a turnaround occurs (who knows?).
Something may also lose all of it's value and never go up again (very unlikely for BTC).
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April 13, 2014, 02:09:08 AM
 #36

The downtrend is still 100% intact.
What goes down, must come up
Yes, but it may be a long long time until a turnaround occurs (who knows?).
Something may also lose all of it's value and never go up again (very unlikely for BTC).

A "long time" for Bitcoin is usually just a few months. Smiley

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April 13, 2014, 02:14:02 AM
 #37

The downtrend is still 100% intact.

What goes down, must come up

Anyone who bought coiledcoin or worldcom or the south sea bubble can tell you that this is not always true.

However, for bitcoin, I expect it to be spectacularly true.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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April 13, 2014, 05:50:27 AM
 #38

The downtrend is still 100% intact.

What goes down, must come up

Anyone who bought coiledcoin or worldcom or the south sea bubble can tell you that this is not always true.

However, for bitcoin, I expect it to be spectacularly true.


Spectacularly true sounds good; Now the question is how soon?


I am legitimately concerned about prospects for demand on western exchanges in the coming months. I sense that many traders/hodlers expect a huge run up to develop soon. What if it doesn't?

Traders won't cause a bubble, we need new money, new blood, new suckers

The "new suckers" (as you so delicately describe them) are VC investors pouring big money into BTC companies.
The new boom cycle has already started.  Smiley

No. Not at all

Investing in BTC companies/infrastructure has fuck all to do with buying bitcoins



Building the BTC economy adds value in many ways.
So many ways, I will not even try to explain.
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April 13, 2014, 06:37:13 AM
 #39

Bitcoin is never a buy. Whoever wanted bitcoin, has it. Speculators now think 450 is expensive. They say today 350 is cheap. But at 350 they'll wait for 200.

Nobody cares about BTC, but about fiat. And even the long term bulls want more BTC because they have more leverage in terms of fiat.

But every now and then we get MyBitcoin and MtGox incidents that level off things. So, don't worry, even if you profit today by buying low, you have all the chances of the exchange being hacked, run off, your wallet stolen somehow etc.

Wobber, what happened in the four years that you have been a member of this forum that made you so bitter?

According to your posting history, in 2010 you were in a position to buy 50 thousand bitcoin - and if in fact you did so and held on to them until today, the coins would be worth a total of 22 million USD !

Hi. I want to buy more than 50.000 BTC but at the lowest price.
I'd like to buy them in a bulk, but if you can offer a good prices for bulks of 10.000, 5000 or even 1000 I will consider buying.
I am waiting for the best offer. Thank you and Merry Xmas!


You answered your own question. He's upset he missed the train and now is frustrated and wants to see the Bitcoin fail. All these people are the same.

Its price is not a very relevant factor in its adoption....
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