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Author Topic: The first 1 BTC Instant Win Scratchticket! Every scratchticket could win!  (Read 2903 times)
vineyard
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April 11, 2014, 09:22:46 PM
Last edit: April 12, 2014, 04:14:15 PM by vineyard
 #1



Introducing what I think is the first full BTC1 scratchticket.
If you find six bitcoin symbols before revealing three "x"s, you win BTC1 instantly.
Withdrawals are automated and instant.

Give it a try and let us know what you think.
bitcoin-scratchticket.com

Odds of winning BTC1 playing this Megacoin scratchticket are about 1:178.
All other games on the site have a 1.9% house edge.
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alabamafan1
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April 11, 2014, 10:00:11 PM
 #2

What is the statistical odds of winning the 1 BTC which is a 100x payout?
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April 12, 2014, 05:08:38 AM
 #3

What is the statistical odds of winning the 1 BTC which is a 100x payout?

I think a lot more than you would expect  Grin
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April 12, 2014, 05:26:45 AM
 #4

I been playing scratch ticket lately. Its very hard to achieve that, I think 1 in thousand chance to win. If you make the registration 0.001 btc I will give a try.

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April 12, 2014, 05:36:31 AM
 #5

Wow nice , will try now Grin , i hope win 1 BTC ..

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April 12, 2014, 05:53:54 AM
 #6

What is the statistical odds of winning the 1 BTC which is a 100x payout?

Assuming that each card has 6 BTC's and 9 X's, and that each card is completely random and fair:

The odds of getting 6 BTC's out of 6 is 6/15 x 5/14 x 4/13 x 3/12 x 2/11 x 1/10 =  .01998%
The odds of getting 6BTC's out of 7 (ie 6BTC's and 1 X) = .1398%
The odds of getting 6BTC's out of 8 =  .5594%
The odds of getting 6BTC's out of 9 = 1.678%

Therefore, the overall odds of choosing all 6 with 9 picks is 2.39748%.  If you are getting paid 100x (and it's fair), that is massively +ev.

EDIT:  Sorry, I misread the rules.  3 X's = you lose.  The odds of you choosing all 6 with 8 picks is .71918%.  A massive house edge.  Stay away.

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April 12, 2014, 05:59:14 AM
 #7

What is the statistical odds of winning the 1 BTC which is a 100x payout?

Assuming that each card has 6 BTC's and 9 X's, and that each card is completely random and fair:

The odds of getting 6 BTC's out of 6 is 6/15 x 5/14 x 4/13 x 3/12 x 2/11 x 1/10 =  .01998%
The odds of getting 6BTC's out of 7 (ie 6BTC's and 1 X) = .1398%
The odds of getting 6BTC's out of 8 =  .5594%
The odds of getting 6BTC's out of 9 = 1.678%

Therefore, the overall odds of choosing all 6 with 9 picks is 2.39748%.  If you are getting paid 100x (and it's fair), that is massively +ev.

EDIT:  Sorry, I misread the rules.  3 X's = you lose.  The odds of you choosing all 6 with 8 picks is .71918%.  A massive house edge.  Stay away.
28% house edge.
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April 12, 2014, 06:30:53 AM
 #8

i only manage to win 1.6x (60% chance Grin )
even 2.9x (34.286% chance) is too hard
reveal 6BTC's before 3's X seems impossible, only very very lucky man can do it  Grin
this game is so fun to play

ehh, i just tried 23.4x (4.196% chance) and win  Grin

but no bet  Tongue
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April 12, 2014, 02:49:38 PM
 #9

What is the statistical odds of winning the 1 BTC which is a 100x payout?

Assuming that each card has 6 BTC's and 9 X's, and that each card is completely random and fair:

The odds of getting 6 BTC's out of 6 is 6/15 x 5/14 x 4/13 x 3/12 x 2/11 x 1/10 =  .01998%
The odds of getting 6BTC's out of 7 (ie 6BTC's and 1 X) = .1398%
The odds of getting 6BTC's out of 8 =  .5594%
The odds of getting 6BTC's out of 9 = 1.678%

Therefore, the overall odds of choosing all 6 with 9 picks is 2.39748%.  If you are getting paid 100x (and it's fair), that is massively +ev.

EDIT:  Sorry, I misread the rules.  3 X's = you lose.  The odds of you choosing all 6 with 8 picks is .71918%.  A massive house edge.  Stay away.
28% house edge.

The house edge on all games other than Megacoin is 1.9%. If you click the "odds and payouts" link on the site, you can see the odds for all games (except Megacoin) and the payouts. The payouts are 0.981*(1/$odds_of_winning), which is the 1.9% house edge.

Regarding Megacoin, the odds of winning are 0.559440559441%, or about 1:178. This leaves us with a relativly high house edge of about 43.8%. Before everyone freaks out about the high house edge on this one game, let me describe why we chose it. We have a relatively high exposure to statistical deviations on this one. In theory we could be down 7 or more BTC before the laws of statistics bring us back up. We were asked by our users to provide a game where you could win a lot on a small bet. In order for us to be able offer this kind of game, we needed (at least for now) sufficient buffer to deal with the statistical deviations we are faced with. We most likely will lower the price of this scratchticket (and therefore reduce the house edge) in the future as we see how things go. But for now, if you are playing for efficiency, the other games on the site have a very economical house edge. If you are playing for excitement and a chance to win big, and you are feeling lucky, play Megacoin.

Now, an apology. The Megacoin odds should be listed along with the other scratchtickets on the site. It isn't there right now because of a bug. The Megacoin ticket operates differently than the others (it has a set purchase price, while the others allow for variable betting). Because of this, it is tagged differently in the database and didn't show up in the list which is auto generated from the database. Our fault. We will be fixing this today. Again, my apologies.

Finally for those who are interested, here is some info on calculating the odds.

The calculation of the odds is not a simple N!/M! problem (except in the case of having to choose 6 "BTC" without revealing any "X"s). It is actually the number of paths you could choose to achieve a win times the probability of a single path being traversed. The # of paths you could choose to win is a statistical combination. And the probability of a single path being traversed is a factorial ratio. This PHP code gives more details:

// Factorial function, not all PHP implementations
// have GMP math extensions installed.
//
function factorial($in) {
   
   // 0! = 1! = 1
   $out = 1;

   // Only if $in is >= 2
   for ($i = 2; $i <= $in; $i++) {
      $out *= $i;
   }

   return $out;
}

// Set your own values here
//
$b = <# of bitcoin symbols hidden on the scratchticket (that must be revealed to win)>;
$x = <# of "X" symbols hidden on the scratchticket>;
$end_game_x_symbols = <# of "X" symbols that, if revealed, will end the game in a loss>;

$allowable_x_selections = $end_game_x_symbols - 1;

// Calculate $c which is $k combinations in a set of $n where:
//
// $k = # of allowable X selections (1 less than the # that end game)
// $n = bitcoins required to reveal to win + allowable X selections
//
// $c tells us how many possible sequences of choices can be made
// by the player to achieve a win.
//
// Remember from your statistics studies:
//
//                     N!   
//   C(N,K) = -------------
//                K!*(N - K)!
//
$n = $b + $allowable_x_selections;
$k = $allowable_x_selections;
$c = factorial($n)/(factorial($k)*factorial($n - $k));
   
// Now, we calculate the probability of successfully traversing a
// single path.
//
$total_scratchticket_locations = $b + $x;
$successful_path_prob = factorial($b)*factorial($x)/factorial($total_scratchticket_locations);
      
// The probability of winning the game equals the number of possible
// sequences a player could choose times the probability of successfully
// traversing a single path;
//
$probability_of_winning = $c * $successful_path_prob;

--- vineyard
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April 12, 2014, 03:03:13 PM
 #10

Ah, right, I just added in the 6/6 and 6/7 twice.  You're right, the scratch ticket that you are promoting does have a ~44% house edge.  That's one of the worst things I've ever seen on this board.

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April 12, 2014, 03:40:05 PM
Last edit: April 12, 2014, 04:12:41 PM by vineyard
 #11

What is the statistical odds of winning the 1 BTC which is a 100x payout?

Assuming that each card has 6 BTC's and 9 X's, and that each card is completely random and fair:

The odds of getting 6 BTC's out of 6 is 6/15 x 5/14 x 4/13 x 3/12 x 2/11 x 1/10 =  .01998%
The odds of getting 6BTC's out of 7 (ie 6BTC's and 1 X) = .1398%
The odds of getting 6BTC's out of 8 =  .5594%
The odds of getting 6BTC's out of 9 = 1.678%

Therefore, the overall odds of choosing all 6 with 9 picks is 2.39748%.  If you are getting paid 100x (and it's fair), that is massively +ev.

EDIT:  Sorry, I misread the rules.  3 X's = you lose.  The odds of you choosing all 6 with 8 picks is .71918%.  A massive house edge.  Stay away.
Couple things.

(1) The numbers in your table are correct, but I don't understand the 2.39748% 6 out of 9 number, nor your 0.71918% 6 for 8 number in your post?

(2) You may not choose to play the Megacoin ticket, because you seem to be an "odds and house edge" player - as many people are. That's why our five 1.9% house edge games would be ideal for you. Other folks, however, like the chance to win a high amount of return. This type of player is the kind that buys Powerball lottery tickets (a US lottery game) when the pot gets large, regardless of the odds. For now, our house edge is relatively high for the megacoin game to buffer the effects of variations from expected results. As I said in a previous post, we will most likely reduce the price of the scratchticket as we see how things go.

(3) Regarding random and fair, all of our scratchtickets are provably fair. Click on that link and you can see why.

(4) I have modified the OP to clearly state the odds of winning and house edge of our other games that allow variable betting.
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April 12, 2014, 04:19:08 PM
 #12

i only manage to win 1.6x (60% chance Grin )
even 2.9x (34.286% chance) is too hard
reveal 6BTC's before 3's X seems impossible, only very very lucky man can do it  Grin
this game is so fun to play

ehh, i just tried 23.4x (4.196% chance) and win  Grin

but no bet  Tongue

You should bet next time  Smiley. What is your username, I will comp you 0.0015 to give it a try. Also, the odds of winning the BTC1 Megacoin scratchticket are about 1:178. All other games on the site have a house edge of 1.9%. All games are provably fair.
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April 12, 2014, 04:32:07 PM
 #13

Could I try that out?

Deposit address is: 1DRcUM94Z7ndLfGib94CVcw8NEAd91Tvdh

Thank you
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April 12, 2014, 04:56:18 PM
 #14

You should add something like "Buy your first megacoin scratch-ticket for only 0.008 !"

People love getting discounted stuff.

As far as I can see , that would still be way more profitable than 1.9% Tongue

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April 12, 2014, 04:59:03 PM
 #15

Could I try that out?

Deposit address is: 1DRcUM94Z7ndLfGib94CVcw8NEAd91Tvdh

Thank you

Howzar, it appears your account has already been comp'ed BTC 0.0015 and you've played several times. What do you think about the game?
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April 12, 2014, 04:59:37 PM
 #16

What is the statistical odds of winning the 1 BTC which is a 100x payout?

Assuming that each card has 6 BTC's and 9 X's, and that each card is completely random and fair:

The odds of getting 6 BTC's out of 6 is 6/15 x 5/14 x 4/13 x 3/12 x 2/11 x 1/10 =  .01998%
The odds of getting 6BTC's out of 7 (ie 6BTC's and 1 X) = .1398%
The odds of getting 6BTC's out of 8 =  .5594%
The odds of getting 6BTC's out of 9 = 1.678%

Therefore, the overall odds of choosing all 6 with 9 picks is 2.39748%.  If you are getting paid 100x (and it's fair), that is massively +ev.

EDIT:  Sorry, I misread the rules.  3 X's = you lose.  The odds of you choosing all 6 with 8 picks is .71918%.  A massive house edge.  Stay away.
Couple things.

(1) The numbers in your table are correct, but I don't understand the 2.39748% 6 out of 9 number, nor your 0.71918% 6 for 8 number in your post?

(2) You may not choose to play the Megacoin ticket, because you seem to be an "odds and house edge" player - as many people are. That's why our five 1.9% house edge games would be ideal for you. Other folks, however, like the chance to win a high amount of return. This type of player is the kind that buys Powerball lottery tickets (a US lottery game) when the pot gets large, regardless of the odds. For now, our house edge is relatively high for the megacoin game to buffer the effects of variations from expected results. As I said in a previous post, we will most likely reduce the price of the scratchticket as we see how things go.

(3) Regarding random and fair, all of our scratchtickets are provably fair. Click on that link and you can see why.

(4) I have modified the OP to clearly state the odds of winning and house edge of our other games that allow variable betting.


1.  I initially misread the rules and calculated for a game where 3 X's could still win.  I corrected that.  I made a miscalculation (in your favor) and counted 6/6 and 6/7 twice in the overall numbers (add the 6/6 6/7 and 6/8 together), overlooking that the 6/8 combinations already included 6/6 and 6/7.

2.  I play plenty of -ev games when I want to have fun.  A 44% house edge, however, isn't fun at all, it's just throwing money away.  

3.  I don't code so I can't speak to the randomness or fairness of stuff like that.  That's why I never say "this is fair" or "this isn't fair", I always preface my math with "assuming this is fair".

4.  Your edit is still intentionally misleading.  You are quoting the odds to win for the 44% house edge game, but quoting the house edge for the lower house edge game.  For the record, a 1.9% house edge is still very high for these types of games.

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April 12, 2014, 05:13:58 PM
 #17

4.  Your edit is still intentionally misleading.  You are quoting the odds to win for the 44% house edge game, but quoting the house edge for the lower house edge game.  For the record, a 1.9% house edge is still very high for these types of games.

How is 1.9% too high...

I know a couple sites with a better house edge , like primedice or just-dice , but this is FUN to gamble on. An extra 0.9% is not too much , considering that most of the other very interesting gambling games are not really provably fair or have similar or higher house edge.

Luckybit is fun too and has an edge of around 1.75%.

TLDR ; 1.9% may be a bit higher , but it is more fun. And gambling is not really not to earn money....


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April 12, 2014, 05:28:50 PM
 #18

4.  Your edit is still intentionally misleading.  You are quoting the odds to win for the 44% house edge game, but quoting the house edge for the lower house edge game.  For the record, a 1.9% house edge is still very high for these types of games.

How is 1.9% too high...

I know a couple sites with a better house edge , like primedice or just-dice , but this is FUN to gamble on. An extra 0.9% is not too much , considering that most of the other very interesting gambling games are not really provably fair or have similar or higher house edge.

Luckybit is fun too and has an edge of around 1.75%.

TLDR ; 1.9% may be a bit higher , but it is more fun. And gambling is not really not to earn money....



It's too high because it's too high.  The biggest sites with the most bets have house edges around 1%.  Thus then, a house edge that is nearly double that is very high.  Luckybit has almost 150,000 wagers.  JD has just over 1,000,000,000.  There's a reason for that.

Also nobody is talking about earning money through degen games.  But losing less means you are able to play longer.

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April 12, 2014, 06:01:59 PM
Last edit: April 12, 2014, 06:14:29 PM by vineyard
 #19

4.  Your edit is still intentionally misleading.  You are quoting the odds to win for the 44% house edge game, but quoting the house edge for the lower house edge game.  For the record, a 1.9% house edge is still very high for these types of games.

How is 1.9% too high...

I know a couple sites with a better house edge , like primedice or just-dice , but this is FUN to gamble on. An extra 0.9% is not too much , considering that most of the other very interesting gambling games are not really provably fair or have similar or higher house edge.

Luckybit is fun too and has an edge of around 1.75%.

TLDR ; 1.9% may be a bit higher , but it is more fun. And gambling is not really not to earn money....



You are correct. There are dice sites with a lower house edge (1.0% vs. 1.9%). You are also correct in that we very different from a dice site. And you are definitely correct in noticing that we are trying to entertain people in a broader way than dice sites (at least in our opinion). If someone is shopping for the lowest house edge out there, a dice site is their best bet (no pun intended  Smiley ) and our site is not for them.
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April 12, 2014, 07:01:53 PM
 #20

Could I try that out?

Deposit address is: 1DRcUM94Z7ndLfGib94CVcw8NEAd91Tvdh

Thank you

Howzar, it appears your account has already been comp'ed BTC 0.0015 and you've played several times. What do you think about the game?

I was talking about the mega scratch ticket!

It is really fun but I lost the bonus Tongue
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