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Author Topic: highest volume ever  (Read 2793 times)
Crypt_Current
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January 07, 2012, 09:25:56 PM
 #21

What's interesting on the weekly scale is that MACD has only begun a cross and RSI hasn't reached overbought territory yet.  With respect to RSI, I guess what's sort of odd about it is that on the same daily chart the RSI corresponds nicely to the weekly chart for the price increase beginning in January 2011 and the one beginning in April 2011.  In those two cases both the weekly and daily charts show RSI overbought during the same timeframe.  Or, they at least show RSI hitting 70 at very close to the same time (you can actually see that the weekly chart led by a tiny bit).  But right now, though the daily chart says we've been overbought since December 19th, the weekly chart has yet move out of the 50s.  I don't know what that means, if anything.



I'm no chartist and I am only learning the basics of tech analysis, but doesn't this "that on the same daily chart the RSI corresponds nicely to the weekly chart for the price increase beginning in January 2011 and the one beginning in April 2011" sort of suggest that upward movement is happening a lot more gradually and perhaps sanely than last summer?

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Crypt_Current
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January 07, 2012, 09:30:44 PM
 #22


So, while I don't expect my grandma to use Bitcoins to buy dinner in the next couple years, it's reasonable to foresee a situation where Bitcoin permeates outward into more and more areas of life.

Sure, because if bitcoin ends up working as a sound backing for other less technical, more user friendly methods of exchange, then grandma will be using it to pay for her dinner and not necessarily need to even know she is doing so.  I mean, come on, how many people using fiat today are completely clueless about how that money is generated / managed?

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January 07, 2012, 09:41:09 PM
 #23

What's interesting on the weekly scale is that MACD has only begun a cross and RSI hasn't reached overbought territory yet.  With respect to RSI, I guess what's sort of odd about it is that on the same daily chart the RSI corresponds nicely to the weekly chart for the price increase beginning in January 2011 and the one beginning in April 2011.  In those two cases both the weekly and daily charts show RSI overbought during the same timeframe.  Or, they at least show RSI hitting 70 at very close to the same time (you can actually see that the weekly chart led by a tiny bit).  But right now, though the daily chart says we've been overbought since December 19th, the weekly chart has yet move out of the 50s.  I don't know what that means, if anything.



Your daily RSI means that relative to the last 14 days we are overbought.

Your weekly one means relative to the last 14 weeks we are neutral.

Your daily one covers the period starting with the christmas rally, your weekly one covers the market bottom.

So the recent rally makes things seem overbought, the market bottom makes it seem like we are about square again. IME RSI doesn't consistently have momentum. I've found can just as easily reverse as it can continue in a given direction.

I don't think it gives a clear signal. Daily says there should be a selloff, weekly says we could go either way. I think the biggest influencing factor would be how much leverage/margin there is in each direction on bitcoinica. I doubt we are going to find that out any time soon (at least not before it becomes apparent from the price action!).

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Crypt_Current
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January 07, 2012, 10:55:53 PM
 #24

I think the biggest influencing factor would be how much leverage/margin there is in each direction on bitcoinica. I doubt we are going to find that out any time soon (at least not before it becomes apparent from the price action!).


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January 07, 2012, 11:01:18 PM
 #25

I think the biggest influencing factor would be how much leverage/margin there is in each direction on bitcoinica. I doubt we are going to find that out any time soon (at least not before it becomes apparent from the price action!).


Just ask Zhou!   Grin
Couldn't hurt to try, right?

Do a 50 BTC buy and a 50 BTC sell and see which is hedged on mtgox Wink.

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January 07, 2012, 11:23:36 PM
 #26


When will this meme die?  Bitcoin doesn't need to (and probably will not) become a "mainstream currency" that your grandma uses to do e-commerce.

Bitcoin is a "meta-currency", and all the "actual economic trade" using bitcoins is just as legitimate even if bitcoin is only traded for dollars/euros etc.

That's it.  I'm starting a "bitcoin is a meta-currency" club.  So far myself, chodpaba, and mobodick are the only three members (four if you count the author of the Wired article).

Tagline for the club is: Bitcoin: not your grandma's e-currency.

Well, that was the direction the ars technica and Wired articles suggested for Bitcoin.

Currency genesis and adoption happen on a very large time scale. Bitcoin will be a vehicle for currency exchange, but in the long term, I think Bitcoin will be seen as valuable on it's own. I would be surprised if mainstream adoption takes LESS than 10 years.

Anyway, just my 0.02 BTC.

Bitcoin: the only currency you can store directly into your brain.

What this planet needs is a good 0.0005 BTC US nickel.
Piper67
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January 07, 2012, 11:29:13 PM
 #27


So, while I don't expect my grandma to use Bitcoins to buy dinner in the next couple years, it's reasonable to foresee a situation where Bitcoin permeates outward into more and more areas of life.

Sure, because if bitcoin ends up working as a sound backing for other less technical, more user friendly methods of exchange, then grandma will be using it to pay for her dinner and not necessarily need to even know she is doing so.  I mean, come on, how many people using fiat today are completely clueless about how that money is generated / managed?

Exactly. Grandma pays with her debit card at the store, yet has no idea that she's just causing zeroes and ones to move between hard drives. In her mind, she just paid $24.99  Smiley
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