1 in 10.000 rolls, a chance of 0.0001. Its a very low chance to win 0.4 btc
Most of the time you will win 0.00000402 btc ( 9885/10000 = 0.9885 ) chance.
It will take you many many hours until the cashout..
Their random number generation is somewhat predictable.
So about the gambling system:
I had an idea for an algorithm in which you remember the 3 outcomes of the last 3 throws.
Like this (where L is low, H is high):
- LLL
- LLH
- LHL
- LHH
- HLL
- HLH
- HHL
- HHH
If i am not mistaken, it would follow the normal distribution on a 50% chance if not manipulated.
and so LLL and HHH would be least probable. Thus if you saw HH its big chance it will be L next.
Of course, there have to be enough throws. The idea is to put low amounts on the chances that are very uncertain,
and higher on amounts on that are more certain.
Of course this is a probabilistic algorithm. I got up to 40000 satoshi in this game with it by hand (starting from 370), but too few time to do all of it by hand. Perhaps the phptask guys can implement this algorithm (or an improved version) - I havent time to program it