Broken trend?

[An amorous cow-herder]

So, what did the previous ATHs all have in common?
About 3 months later the price stabilized and started to rise. Now its 4 months later and the general trend is still downwards. How come?

[Edit] Not the ATHs actually, the relative highs since June 2012

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[porcupine87]

So, what did the previous ATHs all have in common?
About 3 months later the price stabilized and started to rise. Now its 4 months later and the general trend is still downwards. How come?

[Edit] Not the ATHs actually, the relative highs since June 2012

I don't know. I thought this trend would continue forever. 
btw: The high in 2011 was at 13.6.2011. The low was on 18.11.2011. This were 5 months. So can I have more such great fears!

[MatTheCat]

Perhaps you are looking at the wrong fractal.

Perhaps the grand fractal trend has only just peaked (BTC @ 50p - $1200 over the course of ~36 months) has made it's big global imprint, and is now 33% of the way through a 12 month recessionary phase before the grand fractal trend will come to completion and a new one emerges.......   $85 - $5000 ?

[zimmah]

i don't think so. It feels long but the end of the bear market is near.

[BitchicksHusband]

Also, last year after the $266, we had 1st of the months as follows:

5/1 - $115.00
6/1 - $129.25
7/1 - $092.00
8/1 - $106.00
9/1 - $144.00
10/1-$142.00

It took over 6 months to retake the all time high of $266.

Now we have the following:

12/1-$950.00
1/1 - $750.00
2/1 - $818.00
3/1 - $565.00
4/1 - $480.00
5/1? - Probably about the same as 4/1.

Does the rocketship arrive in June that takes us to an all-time high in July?

[Ibian]

Gox liquidation imo. Whether they were stolen by random_hacker or Karp.

Actually, it is not impossible that Karp has permission from a government or governments to steal the gox funds so powerful people can get them cheap. The potential is big enough for that sort of thing and would explain why he is apparently getting away with it.

[MatTheCat]

Gox liquidation imo. Whether they were stolen by random_hacker or Karp.

Actually, it is not impossible that Karp has permission from a government or governments to steal the gox funds so powerful people can get them cheap. The potential is big enough for that sort of thing and would explain why he is apparently getting away with it.

Worthy of consideration.

Karpeles has a record for cyber fraud the length of his arm so who knows what the 'feds' could have on him if they really wanted to nail him. Could easily be leaned upon to do the 'right thing' and be rewarded for it by people with the power to 'make the bad things go away', or face the consequences of the bad things biting him firmly on the arse if he doesn't comply.

In the classic case of criminal that has turned grass or started collaborating with the authorities in other ways. If he gets off practically scot free with large sums of personal wealth intact, that could be a pretty reliable sign that he has pleased some people in the right places. If he gets totally fk'd, has all his assets seized and is thrown in jail for 10 years, then he was just a hapless crook who lucked out into something huge.....if 'lucking out' would be the right way to describe it.

[Robert Paulson]

Does the rocketship arrive in June that takes us to an all-time high in July?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwFvJog2dMw

[TERA]

[Ibian]

It's kind of funny how a lot of people say that past performance does not predict the future, and then go on to post charts based on past performance.

The market is too small. One big player can push the market into the thousands, whatever your charts and burger indexes say.

[MatTheCat]

It's kind of funny how a lot of people say that past performance does not predict the future, and then go on to post charts based on past performance.

The market is too small. One big player can push the market into the thousands, whatever your charts and burger indexes say.

One big player, or rather one big capital flight event. If the X-Factor doesn't come along then Bitcoin will do what every other market does in a post bubble phase where more and more fiat is exiting the market leaving the market to be moved by pre-existing traders basically gambling against each other in increasingly smaller amounts (with of course a few of the big players stacking the game in their favour) . To predict such scenarios, general TA axioms can generally be relied upon. Indeed with Bitcoin, the most schoolboy of TA 101 principles are triggered over and over again. Just look at the amount of times key supports have been hit and trendlines touched or flirted with. If Bitcoin continues to play this way then next strong rebound is at $260.

I have less than a quarter of what I did have in Bitcoin still on exchanges. But I am a shit trader. Everyone knows that. But what about TERA? Speak to him. Bet the truth is that he has gradually taken a large ball of his capital out the game also. This is a general trend and a trend that can ultimately mean only one thing unless the X Factor comes along, which it might......but I wouldn't be relying on any largely unpredictable event to come along and save my skin/help me break even.

[TERA]

It's kind of funny how a lot of people say that past performance does not predict the future, and then go on to post charts based on past performance.

The market is too small. One big player can push the market into the thousands, whatever your charts and burger indexes say.

One big player, or rather one big capital flight event. If the X-Factor doesn't come along then Bitcoin will do what every other market does in a post bubble phase where more and more fiat is exiting the market leaving the market to be moved by pre-existing traders basically gambling with each other in increasingly smaller amounts.

I have less than a quarter of what I did have in Bitcoin still on exchanges. But I am a shit trader. Everyone knows that. But what about TER? Speak to him. Bet the truth is that he has gradually taken a large ball of his capital out the game also. This is a general trend and a trend that can ultimately mean only one thing unless the X Factor comes along, which it might......but I wouldn't be relying on any largely unpredictable event to come along and save my skin/help me break even.

I have removed 70% of my capital from bitcoin markets. I thinking of going long in cold storage with the other 30% and quitting bitcoin trading.

[MatTheCat]

I have removed 70% of my capital from bitcoin markets. I thinking of going long in cold storage with the other 30% and quitting bitcoin trading.

Yup. I must be a mind reader or something.

Either that or that there is only one logical conclusion for even talented and disciplined traders to come to in a declining market with capital pouring out it in tanker loads. In a declining shrinking market, the odds are greatly increased in favour of the trader losing, than the trader winning. In such an environment, a trader must be performing better than average just to break even. Another way of breaking even that involves zero effort, worry, risk etc, is of course simply to not participate.

EDIT: Also worth remembering is that over 90% of TERA's capital (I believe) is gains that has ultimately come out of Bitcoin loser's pockets. How do you reckon those boys are feeling about Bitcoin right now. Praying on a pending break out and bull run? Perhaps, but certainly not willing to put any fresh capital into it and probably very twitchy to start clawing back their initial investment.......and then there is all the cold storage Bitcoins, seized Bitcoins, stolen Bitcoins.

[TERA]

I have removed 70% of my capital from bitcoin markets. I thinking of going long in cold storage with the other 30% and quitting bitcoin trading.

Yup. I must be a mind reader or something.

Either that or that there is only one logical conclusion for even talented and disciplined traders to come to in a declining market with capital pouring out it in tanker loads. In a declining shrinking market, the odds are greatly increased in favour of the trader losing, than the trader winning. In such an environment, a trader must be performing better than average just to break even. Another way of breaking even that involves zero effort, worry, risk etc, is of course simply to not participate.

I have personal reasons of doing this also.  It isn't entirely about my prognosis of the market.  To be honest I don't know where the market is going right now - it could either break up or down, and there are a lot of X-factors that could happen at any time.  So I'm removing an amount of fiat and amount of coins that I'm comfortable with.  It won't effect my life anymore if I lose this level of bitcoin investment,  and I won't miss the train if there's a breakout. But to trade, there is now too little volume and too little volatility and the stress and time to be involved with the 24/7 market is not fitting in with my life anymore.

[MatTheCat]

I have personal reasons of doing this also.  It isn't entirely about my prognosis of the market.  To be honest I don't know where the market is going right now - it could either break up or down, and there are a lot of X-factors that could happen.  So I'm removing an amount of fiat and amount of coins that I'm comfortable with.  It won't effect my life anymore if I lose this level of bitcoin investment,  and I won't miss the train if there's a breakout. But to trade, there is now too little volume and too little volatility and the stress and time to be involved with the 24/7 market is not fitting in with my life anymore.

I would suggest that if you were still winning big, then those personal reasons wouldn't have such a big pull on you when it came to withdrawing your capital from the market. Truth is, the game has went from insanely rewarding and hence insanely addictive, to a much tighter, stagnant, stressful and much less rewarding affair. If indeed the trader is to be rewarded at all! Afterall, a declining market by nature, ensures that the majority are punished. It can't be any other way.

[Ibian]

Tera is also worried about things like quantum computing.

I don't care which way the market goes, I benefit either way. Less stress.

[TERA]

Positive X-factors:
  -Bitcoin exchanges open up in New York
  -Bitcoin opens on OTC markets
  -China removes all bitcoin banking restrictions
   Something along the likes of Google adopts bitcoin.
  -A country actually conducts capital flight into bitcoin
  -Some other huge unexpected advancement in the technology, adoption, or liquidity


Negative X-factors:
  -Chinese exchanges are actually closed.
  -Hundreds of thousands, or millions, of coins start being dumped, for whatever reason (mtgox liquidation,  china, or just bearish whales)
  -Some catastrophic protocol failure
  -Underlying ciphers are broken
  -U.S. government ban
  -Bitstamp, btce, and/or bitfinex fail.

Factors just to warrant against trading:
  -Exchange shuts down
  -Exchange is hacked; Money is stolen from exchange
  -Account is compromised; Money is stolen from account
  -Government seizure of exchange assets
  -The exchange is not operating during a key trading moment and I make a huge loss
  -I am looking at bitcoinwisdom while I am driving and I die

[Ibian]

That last one would be a real downer.

Google actually did adopt bitcoin, in part, if the Glass rumors are true. Also seems like your list of negatives is more generalized and vague than the list of positives. Smells a bit like irrational fear.

[TERA]

That last one would be a real downer.

Google actually did adopt bitcoin, in part, if the Glass rumors are true. Also seems like your list of negatives is more generalized and vague than the list of positives. Smells a bit like irrational fear.

I don't think these fears are irratinonal. I think if any uninitiated investor was given this list of risks, they would not think of even go anywhere near it.  We only stay here and accept these risks because we have first hand experience with past performance and have seen bitcoin survive through many of what seemed like might be catastrophes so we have established a pattern in our mind that bitcoin (and the price) is immortal.

[prophetx]

Positive X-factors:
  -Bitcoin exchanges open up in New York
  -Bitcoin opens on OTC markets
  -China removes all bitcoin banking restrictions
   Something along the likes of Google adopts bitcoin.
  -A country actually conducts capital flight into bitcoin
  -Some other huge unexpected advancement in the technology, adoption, or liquidity


Negative X-factors:
  -Chinese exchanges are actually closed.
  -Hundreds of thousands, or millions, of coins start being dumped, for whatever reason (mtgox liquidation,  china, or just bearish whales)
  -Some catastrophic protocol failure
  -Underlying ciphers are broken
  -U.S. government ban
  -Bitstamp, btce, and/or bitfinex fail.

Factors just to warrant against trading:
  -Exchange shuts down
  -Exchange is hacked; Money is stolen from exchange
  -Account is compromised; Money is stolen from account
  -Government seizure of exchange assets
  -The exchange is not operating during a key trading moment and I make a huge loss
  -I am looking at bitcoinwisdom while I am driving and I die

add russia invades ukraine to that x-factor if that happens we are through the roof i think

[TERA]

Positive X-factors:
  -Bitcoin exchanges open up in New York
  -Bitcoin opens on OTC markets
  -China removes all bitcoin banking restrictions
   Something along the likes of Google adopts bitcoin.
  -A country actually conducts capital flight into bitcoin
  -Some other huge unexpected advancement in the technology, adoption, or liquidity


Negative X-factors:
  -Chinese exchanges are actually closed.
  -Hundreds of thousands, or millions, of coins start being dumped, for whatever reason (mtgox liquidation,  china, or just bearish whales)
  -Some catastrophic protocol failure
  -Underlying ciphers are broken
  -U.S. government ban
  -Bitstamp, btce, and/or bitfinex fail.

Factors just to warrant against trading:
  -Exchange shuts down
  -Exchange is hacked; Money is stolen from exchange
  -Account is compromised; Money is stolen from account
  -Government seizure of exchange assets
  -The exchange is not operating during a key trading moment and I make a huge loss
  -I am looking at bitcoinwisdom while I am driving and I die

add russia invades ukraine to that x-factor if that happens we are through the roof i think

No. There is a false impression that a world crisis would cause bitcoin price to rise. In fact, it would cause bitcoin price to fall as it is something new and unproven as a store of value and is backed almost entirely by bank wires of speculator money, which dry up in a crisis.

[Ibian]

Financial meltdown is slated for 2020. Should be fairly widespread by then, even among some of the muggles. All comes down to things like hardware wallets, security+ease of use.

[counter]

down trend is due to negative news.  Hyped up negative speculation that has not come true and I'd say fear and panic and paranoia all played a roll.

[prophetx]

Positive X-factors:
  -Bitcoin exchanges open up in New York
  -Bitcoin opens on OTC markets
  -China removes all bitcoin banking restrictions
   Something along the likes of Google adopts bitcoin.
  -A country actually conducts capital flight into bitcoin
  -Some other huge unexpected advancement in the technology, adoption, or liquidity


Negative X-factors:
  -Chinese exchanges are actually closed.
  -Hundreds of thousands, or millions, of coins start being dumped, for whatever reason (mtgox liquidation,  china, or just bearish whales)
  -Some catastrophic protocol failure
  -Underlying ciphers are broken
  -U.S. government ban
  -Bitstamp, btce, and/or bitfinex fail.

Factors just to warrant against trading:
  -Exchange shuts down
  -Exchange is hacked; Money is stolen from exchange
  -Account is compromised; Money is stolen from account
  -Government seizure of exchange assets
  -The exchange is not operating during a key trading moment and I make a huge loss
  -I am looking at bitcoinwisdom while I am driving and I die

add russia invades ukraine to that x-factor if that happens we are through the roof i think

No. There is a false impression that a world crisis would cause bitcoin price to rise. In fact, it would cause bitcoin price to fall as it is something new and unproven as a store of value and is backed almost entirely by bank wires of speculator money, which dry up in a crisis.

"in fact" lol

[crocko]

It is outrageous what that Karp did to the Bitcoin.
Unfortunately he will escape untouched, I can bet this.

[Tzupy]

...
  -I am looking at bitcoinwisdom while I am driving and I die

That's the most important point! All others are mitigable / recoverable! 
And just for this reason you should hire a professional driver / bodyguard to drive your S Klasse.

[jdun]

Tera is also worried about things like quantum computing.

I don't care which way the market goes, I benefit either way. Less stress.

Good call, if it goes down, then buy more. If it goes up, then yay!
Trends are made to be broken. Once the market becomes predictable, it will be exploited to make it unpredictable again.

[prophetx]

It is outrageous what that Karp did to the Bitcoin.
Unfortunately he will escape untouched, I can bet this.

[TERA]