Very bearish Elliot Wave analysis

[threecats]

3-b?) I don't know what these "sidechains" are, but anyone can read about the development going on in the BTC world if you just look.
4) ...

You need to read up on sidechains brother. It's a game changer.

[Bitcoin BEAR]

It has always been worth at least 6 digits. Most of the world is just slow to catch on.

Well, sure! To someone who bought at 4 digits, there would be a bit of bias there.

How do you separate actual use from the speculative demand? I'd like to see data backing that it's not just your own sentiment.

I can claim that one BTC is worth one million, and would be as valid as your opinion of $25, but in the end, the price is dictated by the market, clear and simple. It's currently $429.

Fair enough!
I'll try to compile my lists of data and post it up

You assume that Bitcoin has zero use as a store of value. A price of 50 dollars/BTC, total market cap 600 million dollars, assumes that one million users have a demand of only 600 dollars worth of Bitcoin per person. Anyone who believes that is totally disconnected from reality.

That isn't how market capitalization works, besides, when there are indeed 1M users then maybe it'll be worth more.
Bitcoin is a terrible store of value except when it's rising. If you were one of the unlucky saps that bought at $1200 where would you be now? You either sold in which case you aren't storing anything, or you are down 60%. I just don't see how that is a good store of value.

Oh maybe you meant a good store of value for those who got in earlier than most???

[Ibian]

It has always been worth at least 6 digits. Most of the world is just slow to catch on.

Well, sure! To someone who bought at 4 digits, there would be a bit of bias there.

And there we go with the blatant trolling. Explain why it's different this time.

[Siegfried]

It has always been worth at least 6 digits. Most of the world is just slow to catch on.

Well, sure! To someone who bought at 4 digits, there would be a bit of bias there.

How do you separate actual use from the speculative demand? I'd like to see data backing that it's not just your own sentiment.

I can claim that one BTC is worth one million, and would be as valid as your opinion of $25, but in the end, the price is dictated by the market, clear and simple. It's currently $429.

Fair enough!
I'll try to compile my lists of data and post it up

You assume that Bitcoin has zero use as a store of value. A price of 50 dollars/BTC, total market cap 600 million dollars, assumes that one million users have a demand of only 600 dollars worth of Bitcoin per person. Anyone who believes that is totally disconnected from reality.

That isn't how market capitalization works, besides, when there are indeed 1M users then maybe it'll be worth more.
Bitcoin is a terrible store of value except when it's rising. If you were one of the unlucky saps that bought at $1200 where would you be now? You either sold in which case you aren't storing anything, or you are down 60%. I just don't see how that is a good store of value.

Oh maybe you meant a good store of value for those who got in earlier than most???

It is not a stable store of value over a short period time, but it is the only asset that has certain invaluable properties which anyone who has taken the time to try and understand Bitcoin well understands.

[Bitcoin BEAR]

It has always been worth at least 6 digits. Most of the world is just slow to catch on.

Well, sure! To someone who bought at 4 digits, there would be a bit of bias there.

And there we go with the blatant trolling. Explain why it's different this time.

I'm not necessarily saying it's different this time. But you can't exactly say with any amount of certainty that it'll keep going up indefinitely. Just because Bitcoin has always stayed above the previous ATH doesn't mean that it always will. It is still a new technology and has a very real chance of failing in the future. It is code. No code is perfect nor unbreakable.

The point is, yes I'm trolling! But only because you (the permabull, not YOU specifically) think that any argument you don't agree with is just trolling, when in fact both sides are just stating their respective opinions. Since you nor anyone else on this forum knows FOR SURE what the future holds for Bitcoin, I don't think it's fair that you guys say without doubt, that Bitcoin is too big to fail and will make millionaires out of all who share your belief.

If everyone is making money, then no one is making money!

[Siegfried]

It has always been worth at least 6 digits. Most of the world is just slow to catch on.

Well, sure! To someone who bought at 4 digits, there would be a bit of bias there.

And there we go with the blatant trolling. Explain why it's different this time.

I'm not necessarily saying it's different this time. But you can't exactly say with any amount of certainty that it'll keep going up indefinitely. Just because Bitcoin has always stayed above the previous ATH doesn't mean that it always will. It is still a new technology and has a very real chance of failing in the future. It is code. No code is perfect nor unbreakable.

The point is, yes I'm trolling! But only because you (the permabull, not YOU specifically) think that any argument you don't agree with is just trolling, when in fact both sides are just stating their respective opinions. Since you nor anyone else on this forum knows FOR SURE what the future holds for Bitcoin, I don't think it's fair that you guys say without doubt, that Bitcoin is too big to fail and will make millionaires out of all who share your belief.

If everyone is making money, then no one is making money!

No one can truly say that with 100 percent certainty that Bitcoin will succeed, but based on what it has already achieved, the challenges it has overcome, the fundamentals, and the current trends, I would estimate that chance of success (in this case defined only as price greater than 10,000 dollars) is no less than 90 percent. What do you think?

[Ibian]

It has always been worth at least 6 digits. Most of the world is just slow to catch on.

Well, sure! To someone who bought at 4 digits, there would be a bit of bias there.

And there we go with the blatant trolling. Explain why it's different this time.

I'm not necessarily saying it's different this time. But you can't exactly say with any amount of certainty that it'll keep going up indefinitely. Just because Bitcoin has always stayed above the previous ATH doesn't mean that it always will. It is still a new technology and has a very real chance of failing in the future. It is code. No code is perfect nor unbreakable.

The point is, yes I'm trolling! But only because you (the permabull, not YOU specifically) think that any argument you don't agree with is just trolling, when in fact both sides are just stating their respective opinions. Since you nor anyone else on this forum knows FOR SURE what the future holds for Bitcoin, I don't think it's fair that you guys say without doubt, that Bitcoin is too big to fail and will make millionaires out of all who share your belief.

If everyone is making money, then no one is making money!

Nobody has said it will keep going up forever. A common straw man. Leave that shit at the door.

There are two scenarios. Either it gets adopted worldwide which will require the price to go up, or it does not which will result in a near zero value. A scenario where it just stays where it is forever is simply not realistic. Only question is the timeline and final price.

6 digits is a conservative estimate for worldwide adoption. This is not a guess or hopeful dreams, it is math. Elementary math at that. There is nothing to argue about here.

[bcmine]

It has always been worth at least 6 digits. Most of the world is just slow to catch on.

Well, sure! To someone who bought at 4 digits, there would be a bit of bias there.

How do you separate actual use from the speculative demand? I'd like to see data backing that it's not just your own sentiment.

I can claim that one BTC is worth one million, and would be as valid as your opinion of $25, but in the end, the price is dictated by the market, clear and simple. It's currently $429.

Fair enough!
I'll try to compile my lists of data and post it up

You assume that Bitcoin has zero use as a store of value. A price of 50 dollars/BTC, total market cap 600 million dollars, assumes that one million users have a demand of only 600 dollars worth of Bitcoin per person. Anyone who believes that is totally disconnected from reality.

That isn't how market capitalization works, besides, when there are indeed 1M users then maybe it'll be worth more.
Bitcoin is a terrible store of value except when it's rising. If you were one of the unlucky saps that bought at $1200 where would you be now? You either sold in which case you aren't storing anything, or you are down 60%. I just don't see how that is a good store of value.

Oh maybe you meant a good store of value for those who got in earlier than most???

It is not a stable store of value over a short period time, but it is the only asset that has certain invaluable properties which anyone who has taken the time to try and understand Bitcoin well understands.

the first hour investors were driven buying bitcoin as the paradigm was setup that bitcoins was a currency. the same with the internet when everyone was investing in internet commerce at the beginning. bitcoin 2.0 says that the technology for the consumermarket interesting, therefor the focus on the idea of a individual side blockchain for every business.

the resumme could be that there is less investment made in the sideeffect of the blockchain, the coins given out for creating the blockchain as in it it itselve.

we are still inside the bubble, because of the nature of slow development of technology and market. the question is just if its going to burst or not. I think in 2015/2016 we are out of it, short term is difficult.

[Alley]

I think big money is waiting come in.  Question is what will btc have to fall to before they will start buying?

[kooke]

It has always been worth at least 6 digits. Most of the world is just slow to catch on.

Well, sure! To someone who bought at 4 digits, there would be a bit of bias there.

And there we go with the blatant trolling. Explain why it's different this time.

I'm not necessarily saying it's different this time. But you can't exactly say with any amount of certainty that it'll keep going up indefinitely. Just because Bitcoin has always stayed above the previous ATH doesn't mean that it always will. It is still a new technology and has a very real chance of failing in the future. It is code. No code is perfect nor unbreakable.

The point is, yes I'm trolling! But only because you (the permabull, not YOU specifically) think that any argument you don't agree with is just trolling, when in fact both sides are just stating their respective opinions. Since you nor anyone else on this forum knows FOR SURE what the future holds for Bitcoin, I don't think it's fair that you guys say without doubt, that Bitcoin is too big to fail and will make millionaires out of all who share your belief.

If everyone is making money, then no one is making money!

Nobody has said it will keep going up forever. A common straw man. Leave that shit at the door.

There are two scenarios. Either it gets adopted worldwide which will require the price to go up, or it does not which will result in a near zero value. A scenario where it just stays where it is forever is simply not realistic. Only question is the timeline and final price.

6 digits is a conservative estimate for worldwide adoption. This is not a guess or hopeful dreams, it is math. Elementary math at that. There is nothing to argue about here.

Worldwide acceptance is extremely unlikely. You're counting your chickens before your eggs hatch.

[Bitcoin BEAR]

It has always been worth at least 6 digits. Most of the world is just slow to catch on.

Well, sure! To someone who bought at 4 digits, there would be a bit of bias there.

And there we go with the blatant trolling. Explain why it's different this time.

I'm not necessarily saying it's different this time. But you can't exactly say with any amount of certainty that it'll keep going up indefinitely. Just because Bitcoin has always stayed above the previous ATH doesn't mean that it always will. It is still a new technology and has a very real chance of failing in the future. It is code. No code is perfect nor unbreakable.

The point is, yes I'm trolling! But only because you (the permabull, not YOU specifically) think that any argument you don't agree with is just trolling, when in fact both sides are just stating their respective opinions. Since you nor anyone else on this forum knows FOR SURE what the future holds for Bitcoin, I don't think it's fair that you guys say without doubt, that Bitcoin is too big to fail and will make millionaires out of all who share your belief.

If everyone is making money, then no one is making money!

Nobody has said it will keep going up forever. A common straw man. Leave that shit at the door.

There are two scenarios. Either it gets adopted worldwide which will require the price to go up, or it does not which will result in a near zero value. A scenario where it just stays where it is forever is simply not realistic. Only question is the timeline and final price.

6 digits is a conservative estimate for worldwide adoption. This is not a guess or hopeful dreams, it is math. Elementary math at that. There is nothing to argue about here.

I don't get why it MUST be binary. Why is there no middle ground?

If worldwide adoption occurs, then I agree that 6 digits is a safe bet. But then I ask, why should Bitcoin be valued at it's maximum potential right now, when it has not yet reached it's maximum potential? The true value should rise with real use and not just speculative demand, but that real use is, compared to trade volume, minuscule at the moment.

[Ibian]

I don't get why it MUST be binary. Why is there no middle ground?

If worldwide adoption occurs, then I agree that 6 digits is a safe bet. But then I ask, why should Bitcoin be valued at it's maximum potential right now, when it has not yet reached it's maximum potential? The true value should rise with real use and not just speculative demand, but that real use is, compared to trade volume, minuscule at the moment.

It's too useful to remain some obscure nerd-token. Just like email and looking up cooking recipes on the internet. People are slow to adopt, but they will eventually simply for their own selfish benefit. Same as any other technology.

The True Value, as meaningless as that term is, is whatever its ultimate potential is. Which is much higher than here.

And just to clarify, by worldwide adoption I don't mean that 100% of the economy happens in bitcoin. Just that it is known to everyone and that however many people have a reason to use it, use it (whether they know it or not at the present time of writing). My (conservative, as always) estimate for that is that 10% of the world population commonly use it. Could likely go much higher, but no reason to be overly bullish.

[Siegfried]

I think big money is waiting come in.  Question is what will btc have to fall to before they will start buying?

It could happen at any moment. When we say "big money" what are we talking about? If I were "big money" and I really wanted to get into Bitcoin, I would be worried not so much about whether or not the price goes down more, I be worried about other "big money" getting in before me. Suppose "big money" means a person (or entity) who becomes a true believer in Bitcoin wants to invest 100 million dollars in it. There are thousands of people who could potentially do this. If a total of 100 million dollars enters the Bitcoin market in a short period of time, the price will rise well past 10,000 dollars. Now suppose big money person A comes to believe that big money person B has the same intention. It would be wise for person A to begin buying immediately at price 500 before person B starts buying, rather than wait for the price to maybe fall to 400 and risk person B buying before you. If person B buys before person A, person A will have to buy at 10,000. For a big money person who has decided that Bitcoin is a good investment, the risk of losing the race to another big money person is much greater than buying too soon, before the absolute bottom.

I am sure that big money people are already acquiring Bitcoin, but they are doing it off-exchange as much as possible and on-exchange in smaller amounts, but the time is fast approaching when this big money acquisition will no longer be unnoticed, and a stampede will occur.

[kooke]

I don't get why it MUST be binary. Why is there no middle ground?

If worldwide adoption occurs, then I agree that 6 digits is a safe bet. But then I ask, why should Bitcoin be valued at it's maximum potential right now, when it has not yet reached it's maximum potential? The true value should rise with real use and not just speculative demand, but that real use is, compared to trade volume, minuscule at the moment.

It's too useful to remain some obscure nerd-token. Just like email and looking up cooking recipes on the internet. People are slow to adopt, but they will eventually simply for their own selfish benefit. Same as any other technology.

The True Value, as meaningless as that term is, is whatever its ultimate potential is. Which is much higher than here.

And just to clarify, by worldwide adoption I don't mean that 100% of the economy happens in bitcoin. Just that it is known to everyone and that however many people have a reason to use it, use it (whether they know it or not at the present time of writing). My (conservative, as always) estimate for that is that 10% of the world population commonly use it. Could likely go much higher, but no reason to be overly bullish.

You can't really compare btc with email. People weren't really slow in adopting email, and there's not really much risk using email for the average person. Investing in btc on the other hand, is quite risky.

[GigaCoin]

Bitcoin Is starting to remind me of Gold's and Silver's demise, very similar scenario as the price kept going up but never enough causing it to die slowly

[prophetx]

I think big money is waiting come in.  Question is what will btc have to fall to before they will start buying?

It could happen at any moment. When we say "big money" what are we talking about? If I were "big money" and I really wanted to get into Bitcoin, I would be worried not so much about whether or not the price goes down more, I be worried about other "big money" getting in before me. Suppose "big money" means a person (or entity) who becomes a true believer in Bitcoin wants to invest 100 million dollars in it. There are thousands of people who could potentially do this. If a total of 100 million dollars enters the Bitcoin market in a short period of time, the price will rise well past 10,000 dollars. Now suppose big money person A comes to believe that big money person B has the same intention. It would be wise for person A to begin buying immediately at price 500 before person B starts buying, rather than wait for the price to maybe fall to 400 and risk person B buying before you. If person B buys before person A, person A will have to buy at 10,000. For a big money person who has decided that Bitcoin is a good investment, the risk of losing the race to another big money person is much greater than buying too soon, before the absolute bottom.

I am sure that big money people are already acquiring Bitcoin, but they are doing it off-exchange as much as possible and on-exchange in smaller amounts, but the time is fast approaching when this big money acquisition will no longer be unnoticed, and a stampede will occur.

big money don't just buy worthless coins shooting up the price.  big money knows that actual innovation needs to happen to draw in more users.  therefor you already see investments by big money not mainly in the token itself but for providing services to use the token.

that being said it means that tomorrow big money can decide that coinbase stops using bitcoin and starts using litecoin (long shot hypothetical of course) or both or whatever, and their business makes "money" no matter which crypto wins.

it is entirely possible that something comes along that is bitcoin like but has a better network distribution model (see dogecoin rise), in fact it is almost a certainty as one looks at the history of innovations from the printing press, to data transmission, to automobiles and so on.

[Siegfried]

I think big money is waiting come in.  Question is what will btc have to fall to before they will start buying?

It could happen at any moment. When we say "big money" what are we talking about? If I were "big money" and I really wanted to get into Bitcoin, I would be worried not so much about whether or not the price goes down more, I be worried about other "big money" getting in before me. Suppose "big money" means a person (or entity) who becomes a true believer in Bitcoin wants to invest 100 million dollars in it. There are thousands of people who could potentially do this. If a total of 100 million dollars enters the Bitcoin market in a short period of time, the price will rise well past 10,000 dollars. Now suppose big money person A comes to believe that big money person B has the same intention. It would be wise for person A to begin buying immediately at price 500 before person B starts buying, rather than wait for the price to maybe fall to 400 and risk person B buying before you. If person B buys before person A, person A will have to buy at 10,000. For a big money person who has decided that Bitcoin is a good investment, the risk of losing the race to another big money person is much greater than buying too soon, before the absolute bottom.

I am sure that big money people are already acquiring Bitcoin, but they are doing it off-exchange as much as possible and on-exchange in smaller amounts, but the time is fast approaching when this big money acquisition will no longer be unnoticed, and a stampede will occur.

big money don't just buy worthless coins shooting up the price.  big money knows that actual innovation needs to happen to draw in more users.  therefor you already see investments by big money not mainly in the token itself but for providing services to use the token.

that being said it means that tomorrow big money can decide that coinbase stops using bitcoin and starts using litecoin (long shot hypothetical of course) or both or whatever, and their business makes "money" no matter which crypto wins.

it is entirely possible that something comes along that is bitcoin like but has a better network distribution model (see dogecoin rise), in fact it is almost a certainty as one looks at the history of innovations from the printing press, to data transmission, to automobiles and so on.

Bitcoin already is "actual" innovation, the most significant financial innovation in decades. It already is drawing in more users daily and it is obviously not worthless.

The people who are investing in Bitcoin services have completely different goals from big money people who would want to own Bitcoin itself. Being an owner of Coinbase or Bitpay would not allow someone to securely store or instantly transfer 100 million dollars of value anywhere in the world.

The only part of your argument that is not a complete failure is the possibility that a better version of Bitcoin will come along, although your choice of Dogecoin as an example was poor. I admit that is a possibility, but it is more than likely that Bitcoin will adopt any significant improvements (because it is open source and incredibly smart people are working on it) in order to stay on top.

[Arghhh]

big money don't just buy worthless coins shooting up the price.  big money knows that actual innovation needs to happen to draw in more users.  therefor you already see investments by big money not mainly in the token itself but for providing services to use the token.

that being said it means that tomorrow big money can decide that coinbase stops using bitcoin and starts using litecoin (long shot hypothetical of course) or both or whatever, and their business makes "money" no matter which crypto wins.

it is entirely possible that something comes along that is bitcoin like but has a better network distribution model (see dogecoin rise), in fact it is almost a certainty as one looks at the history of innovations from the printing press, to data transmission, to automobiles and so on.

Big money is buying all those "worthless" coins off-exchange as to not alert panic-buyers. Second Market is the primest of examples. Right now, as the price plunges, there is a re-ordering of of BTC distribution and it's going to separate the speculators from the true believers.

Notice that as BTC takes a hit, all the other altcoins takes an even bigger hit. This is a sign that most of the other altcoins in their current state is used to speculate bitcoin, and therefore at its mercy.

A big part of any coin is the security (backed up by hashrate) and network effect. Nothing even comes close to rivaling Bitcoin, at $2000 or $200.

[Siegfried]

big money don't just buy worthless coins shooting up the price.  big money knows that actual innovation needs to happen to draw in more users.  therefor you already see investments by big money not mainly in the token itself but for providing services to use the token.

that being said it means that tomorrow big money can decide that coinbase stops using bitcoin and starts using litecoin (long shot hypothetical of course) or both or whatever, and their business makes "money" no matter which crypto wins.

it is entirely possible that something comes along that is bitcoin like but has a better network distribution model (see dogecoin rise), in fact it is almost a certainty as one looks at the history of innovations from the printing press, to data transmission, to automobiles and so on.

Big money is buying all those "worthless" coins off-exchange as to not alert panic-buyers. Second Market is the primest of examples.

Right now, as the price plunges, there is a re-ordering of of BTC distribution and it's going to separate the speculators from the true believers.

A big part of any coin is the security (backed up by hashrate) and network effect. Nothing even comes close to rivaling Bitcoin, at $2000 or $200.

I feel a lot of regret when I realize that I could have doubled my coins by selling high and buying low during this downtrend, but then I remind myself that as I continue to buy more coins each month, I am still moving up the BTC distribution ranking, while most of the people who are selling now will come out of this phase with fewer coins.

[MatTheCat]

Why are people still questioning this? The price goes up in huge jumps. Minor changes between those jumps are meaningless in the bigger picture. For permabears to be taken seriously they would first have to explain why "this time it's different" without appearing to be blatantly trolling. And they can't do that.

Ibian! Hoping and praying since $820!

I think big money is waiting come in.  Question is what will btc have to fall to before they will start buying?

Question is, how low will they make it fall before they start buying?