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Author Topic: ardent speculators: consider shorting before 4th May 00:00GMT (that means 3rd)  (Read 3482 times)
zhangweiwu
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May 02, 2014, 08:46:16 AM
 #1

The market is brooding for negative news from China, and there likely will be. In the mean time, the market may get over-confident just by chance. The earliest possible time of negative news from China is 4th May 8:00AM, which is 0:0GMT - it may be days or weeks after that time, but it won't be earlier for simply holiday reason. If the market price rise over 500$ without apparent good news before that time, it should be a mistake, and can be speculated upon. Even 450$ may be speculated upon. I am not making prediction here this time, only that I don't think there are not much to lose by this way - reverse position a while after 4th May if you feel unsafe. Each time Chinese influnce is smaller, I hope the Chinese influnce fade away quickly, to the point that we can simply ignore Chinese news, because I am looking forward to see a stream of negative news from China, and short pain is better than long one.

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
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yomofo
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May 02, 2014, 09:22:55 AM
 #2

are we expecting exchanges to announce the closing of operations?

zhangweiwu
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May 02, 2014, 09:49:01 AM
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are we expecting exchanges to announce the closing of operations?

Not in the form of deny BTC withdraw. I am sure some of the exchanges are insolvent on the BTC side of their ledger, but if we look at short-term, it is not a problem for China, because too few uses use wallets, and exchanges are considered banks - effectively the exchanges assume the role too, and some given up convincing users to use wallet for safety - this there are liquidity on BTC side. (In case of a bank-run, users withdraw from one exchange and put it to another exchange, not into wallets - this happened in small scale before, and that would create a funny situation that exchanges may even work together).

I am expecting negative news from government side and bank side - I've been fathoming which Chinese government. the reason why I expect so I wish to address in a full article that I haven't got whole blocks of hours to write critically due to recent eye injury.

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
maurya78
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May 02, 2014, 09:53:33 AM
 #4

Not sure I buy the short argument
Lot of the crap is priced in already, prices have been pretty resilient

Siegfried
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May 02, 2014, 09:54:05 AM
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are we expecting exchanges to announce the closing of operations?

Not in the form of deny BTC withdraw. I am sure some of the exchanges are insolvent on the BTC side of their ledger, but if we look at short-term, it is not a problem for China, because too few uses use wallets, and exchanges are considered banks - effectively the exchanges assume the role too, and some given up convincing users to use wallet for safety - this there are liquidity on BTC side. (In case of a bank-run, users withdraw from one exchange and put it to another exchange, not into wallets - this happened in small scale before, and that would create a funny situation that exchanges may even work together).

I am expecting negative news from government side and bank side - I've been fathoming which Chinese government. why I expect so I wish to address in a full article that I haven't got whole blocks of hours to write due to eye injury.


What makes you so sure exchanges are insolvent on the BTC side?
zhangweiwu
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May 02, 2014, 09:57:33 AM
 #6

What makes you so sure exchanges are insolvent on the BTC side?

Correction: I am sure -> I feel sure. The security breaches in year 2013 were numerous, and there is no accident this year yet; exchanges has not been honest enough on reporting heartbleed issue, should expect the same level of honesty in other security issues. On bitcoin events, some exchanges blame users for security issue and say they are good. These are negative signals on security. Also as I explaind, I think it not so important in the short term.

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
zhangweiwu
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May 02, 2014, 10:02:11 AM
 #7

Lot of the crap is priced in already, prices have been pretty resilient

Many thought the price contained all negatives but last Caixin's report draged it down 50$. The tone of the report was special - it is not a report from a financial media, but more like a report from PBOC, because of their choice of words, even in the commentary part, is inapproprate unless spoken by authorities. Which means, PBOC intends Bitcoin to be, as the report said, "collectable items for collectors", sourvenirs. PBOC would not act by itself if it really act what they say -> should expect bad news from other sectors than directly PBOC and should expect market responds to it - my humble opinion. I expect those who has not experience reading authority reports to overlooked its message, hence the market could make mistake, shorting on 500$ and 480$ before 4th May is a bet without much risk - me personally would do it even if 3rd May price is 450$. I don't see a reasonable short burst, you don't miss much by shorting. Reserve funds to bid at sub-40$ level can be useful.

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
blatchcorn
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May 02, 2014, 10:09:31 AM
 #8

The market has had 5 months to price this in already  Roll Eyes


 
 
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zhangweiwu
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May 02, 2014, 10:11:17 AM
 #9

The market has had 5 months to price this in already  Roll Eyes

Which means you ware caught by surprise a few times during the months, right? ( a really kind wink) I am not surprised even 1 time, because I predicted the saga by 9th Jan (China goverment will cripple bitcoin operation, posted on this forum) and I observed that this is not fully priced in till 11th April bottom (which I also predicted, on this sub-forum). I often find people tends to marginalize this world-most-wealthy-organization, like Chinese marginalize the Federal Reserve. PBOC has a vast ego like other top Chinese governments, However it's not my ego at work. I truly hope that: the day people don't care about China's news come earlier and that I found my knowledge of China useless. I try to be helpful: when I really think the next bottom is in I'll say that at the risk of being a bad fortune-teller.

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
MatTheCat
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May 02, 2014, 11:54:08 AM
 #10

The market has had 5 months to price this in already  Roll Eyes

Which means you ware caught by surprise a few times during the months, right? ( a really kind wink) I am not surprised even 1 time, because I predicted the saga by 9th Jan (China goverment will cripple bitcoin operation, posted on this forum) and I observed that this is not fully priced in till 11th April bottom (which I also predicted, on this sub-forum). I often find people tends to marginalize this world-most-wealthy-organization, like Chinese marginalize the Federal Reserve. PBOC has a vast ego like other top Chinese governments, However it's not my ego at work. I truly hope that: the day people don't care about China's news come earlier and that I found my knowledge of China useless. I try to be helpful: when I really think the next bottom is in I'll say that at the risk of being a bad fortune-teller.

Don't waste your breath debating with these retards zhangweiwu. Time and time again your input has proven both insightful into the workings of Chinese culture and also into the implications that it has had on Bitcoin price. Anyone with their heads screwed on will value any comments that you have to make. Let the Kool-Aid heads drink Kool-Aid and suffer the hangovers of their own stupidity...again....and again...AND AGAIN...and again and again and again and again and again...........

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p0peji
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May 02, 2014, 12:00:40 PM
 #11

The market has had 5 months to price this in already  Roll Eyes

Which means you ware caught by surprise a few times during the months, right? ( a really kind wink) I am not surprised even 1 time, because I predicted the saga by 9th Jan (China goverment will cripple bitcoin operation, posted on this forum) and I observed that this is not fully priced in till 11th April bottom (which I also predicted, on this sub-forum). I often find people tends to marginalize this world-most-wealthy-organization, like Chinese marginalize the Federal Reserve. PBOC has a vast ego like other top Chinese governments, However it's not my ego at work. I truly hope that: the day people don't care about China's news come earlier and that I found my knowledge of China useless. I try to be helpful: when I really think the next bottom is in I'll say that at the risk of being a bad fortune-teller.

Don't waste your breath debating with these retards zhangweiwu. Time and time again your input has proven both insightful into the workings of Chinese culture and also into the implications that it has had on Bitcoin price. Anyone with their heads screwed on will value any comments that you have to make. Let the Kool-Aid heads drink Kool-Aid and suffer the hangovers of their own stupidity...again....and again...AND AGAIN...and again and again and again and again and again...........

+1
yomofo
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May 02, 2014, 12:20:32 PM
 #12

The market has had 5 months to price this in already  Roll Eyes

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=315380.0;all

zhangweiwu, predicted the start of the chinese bubble before it happened on October 21, 2013 when the price was still sub $200.  

Quote
   
false signal resulted rally in China, and it won't stop.
October 21, 2013, 05:29:00 AM
Reply with quote  #1
If you search the topic in baidu of the last week's price rise, and you search in Chinese, most posts and reports ascribe it to the recent adoption of bitcoin payment method by a web service of Baidu (jiasule.baidu.com).

For example this report of sina.com (one of the biggest Chinese online news outlet):
http://tech.sina.com.cn/i/2013-10-17/10248825635.shtml

These reports suggests that the adoption by Baidu is a signal that the big vendors are accepting bitccoin - consider the close tie between baidu and central government, that the government may be interested too. It is like saying Microsoft or Facebook started to accept bitcoin. That tapped on the emotion and BTC rose.

I think the big vendors are no way closer to accepting bitcoin in the last week than any weeks before. It is indeed a small change, and signals nothing from big vendors nor the central government at all.

Chinese information technology vendors, including the big ones, in general prefer the studio model. A big company is devided into multiple studios, some companys have 100 studios. They each compete against each other. They compete on revenue and profit, within the embralla of a same company. Each studio find their own ways of making profit, and enjoy freedom of decision as long as they are making money. The mother company acts like a referee, dismissing unprofitable studios and buying out (admitting) small competitors to form new studios; the mother company also act as a protector, backing the studios with tremendous PR and governmental relationship power in case their competitor choose to fight on a different level (which also happens). This fast-proliferating fast-evoluting style isn't very co-ordinated, but it is effective because in general in China our culture emphasize competition, and we like to compete and win and we work the best if competition is physically next door. If instead big vendors are organized like Microsoft to co-operate and create huge products (Windows 7) in 5-year span, the youngsters wouldn't stay on their edge - they need quick confirmation whether they are wining or not - they work very hard but doesn't have much patience. Skipping between studios is frequent, the fast-growing studios get more resource and people.

The recent acceptance of bitcoin is likely a decision of a single stuidio in the embralla of baidu, perhaps trying to beat other studios of the same company. Baidu HQs speaksman said nothing about bitcoin in the whole year. How Baidu HQs treats the move is unkown, and they probably don't have an attitude, for it (bitcoin) is trivial compare to the huge online information market they are already on. News interview suggests this is a decision of an individual studio: "We always try to satisfy the webmasters, so when they want to pay with bitcoin, we accept them". Notice the interviewee said 'webmasters', that's the customers of this studio, not Baidu in whole, and he speaks for his own studio.

Also take notice the customer of this studio (jiasule.baidu.com), the webmasters, happen to be the major group of bitcoin miners in China.

So why such a small piece of news that indicates nothing for sure, stirs up such a rally? More important than the news itself it says Chinese investors are desperately looking for a reason to rally. They perhaps expected bitcoin to be above 1000¥ for a long time, now they only need a slight upward vibrate to rally. And they have a good reason to hope for a rally, for they bought huge amount of mining equipments in anticipation of raise of bitcoin value.

My reading of the event is, that Chinese investors are anticipating a rally for a long time, thus it won't cool down in just a few days. However they are speculating, not having much faith in sustanibility of bitcoin and may be frighten away by small bad news within China. They are less sensitive to western news like silkroad.

In China we have highly centralized political power. The chance Chinese government allows bitcoin on the markets (when it calls their attention) is like the chance U.S. government raise debt in BTC. The big vendors foresee it and shouldn't be interested. Besides we have a monoplay business atomosphere in China (every player are greedy, wants to win and take all), and you don't monoplay bitcoin. I see no reason Baidu being interested to include bitcoin into their development strategy. Small vendors are much more likely to be interested in btc.

(OP is a Chinese citizen in Beijing)

jcoin200
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May 02, 2014, 12:40:35 PM
 #13

Thank you for your insight OP.  Are you expecting another ~$50 drop, or more?  I am not convinced the bear market is over yet, the downtrend is still very strong, with or without negative Chinese news.
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May 02, 2014, 01:09:28 PM
 #14

I like to think of the sharp and persisted drops as a feature of the downtrend and not neccessarily a feature of the news. Notice that if a bad news occurs at a tipping point right on a the downtrend line, it will cause a sharp and persisted drop. But if the news occurs somewhere else where a drop is not supposed to occur yet, it will have a much lesser effect or no effect, or there will be an immediate rebound. The market just waits for excuses to do things.

As for news, the next wave of Chinese news will be when banks identify and close the specific accounts used by exchanges and not just posting a notice. After that, there will be news about how police get involved. Finally, there will be the exchanges themselves closing.

Then there is news about topics completely besides china, such as goxcoins, hackercoins, and the government's 600,000 coins.
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May 02, 2014, 02:24:48 PM
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I like to think of the sharp and persisted drops as a feature of the downtrend and not neccessarily a feature of the news. Notice that if a bad news occurs at a tipping point right on a the downtrend line, it will cause a sharp and persisted drop. But if the news occurs somewhere else where a drop is not supposed to occur yet, it will have a much lesser effect or no effect, or there will be an immediate rebound. The market just waits for excuses to do things.

As for news, the next wave of Chinese news will be when banks identify and close the specific accounts used by exchanges and not just posting a notice. After that, there will be news about how police get involved. Finally, there will be the exchanges themselves closing.

Then there is news about topics completely besides china, such as goxcoins, hackercoins, and the government's 600,000 coins.

Whatever, bud. Here is what is really happening: wealthy are steadily buying bitcoin-see secondmarket thread.
Once it is almost all produced (93.75% in 10 years) and bought, it can only be redistributed.
PBOC would be better thinking about ghost cities and overheated real estate in the mean time.
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May 02, 2014, 09:46:08 PM
 #16

I don't understand the Chinese system. Maybe OP can elaborate.

PBOC is not a lawmaker and not a court. Can they even tell banks what to do? Over the PHONE!?!

Is there no legal system in China? Why don't these banks and exchanges just continue to operate until they receive a court order, which they can then challenge?

Nulla poena sine lege, not in China or what?

Truth is the new hatespeech.
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May 02, 2014, 10:49:16 PM
 #17

I don't understand the Chinese system. Maybe OP can elaborate.

PBOC is not a lawmaker and not a court. Can they even tell banks what to do? Over the PHONE!?!

Is there no legal system in China? Why don't these banks and exchanges just continue to operate until they receive a court order, which they can then challenge?

Nulla poena sine lege, not in China or what?

Actually, the questions that you pose expecting the answer "no" - that's pretty much the case.
Take a look at OP's articles on bitcoin.de. PBOC doesn't even tell the exchanges what to do. It expects them to understand what it wants without it needing to be that direct. The fact that it even needed to discuss it directly with smaller players was a major anomaly. And no, the legal system is not like the one we take for granted in the West.
Bottom line, PBOC can and will choke the exchanges in China by denying them banking relationships. They're 'free' to carry out as much business as they want outside of that framework.
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May 02, 2014, 11:53:53 PM
 #18

OK but what would happen if the exchanges would just say, can we have that in writing? Or speak to our lawyers?

Even if they could force them out of business eventually, it would take a lot longer than just "understanding what it wants" and complying without resistance. What would happen if they did not "want" to understand ?

Truth is the new hatespeech.
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May 03, 2014, 12:57:13 AM
 #19

The market has had 5 months to price this in already  Roll Eyes

Which means you ware caught by surprise a few times during the months, right? ( a really kind wink) I am not surprised even 1 time, because I predicted the saga by 9th Jan (China goverment will cripple bitcoin operation, posted on this forum) and I observed that this is not fully priced in till 11th April bottom (which I also predicted, on this sub-forum). I often find people tends to marginalize this world-most-wealthy-organization, like Chinese marginalize the Federal Reserve. PBOC has a vast ego like other top Chinese governments, However it's not my ego at work. I truly hope that: the day people don't care about China's news come earlier and that I found my knowledge of China useless. I try to be helpful: when I really think the next bottom is in I'll say that at the risk of being a bad fortune-teller.

Don't waste your breath debating with these retards zhangweiwu. Time and time again your input has proven both insightful into the workings of Chinese culture and also into the implications that it has had on Bitcoin price. Anyone with their heads screwed on will value any comments that you have to make. Let the Kool-Aid heads drink Kool-Aid and suffer the hangovers of their own stupidity...again....and again...AND AGAIN...and again and again and again and again and again...........
+1
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May 03, 2014, 05:05:44 AM
 #20

OK but what would happen if the exchanges would just say, can we have that in writing? Or speak to our lawyers?

Even if they could force them out of business eventually, it would take a lot longer than just "understanding what it wants" and complying without resistance. What would happen if they did not "want" to understand ?

That's just not how things are done. I'm sure OP can suggest some outcomes, but remember this is not about what the exchanges want. PBOC is instructing their banks, not them.
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