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Author Topic: why's the price going down again? is it the China 'tards dumping again?  (Read 3438 times)
TERA
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May 02, 2014, 11:35:13 PM
 #21

Do you not know how to read a chart and analyze a trend? When price is close to the downtrend, the market is just looking for any excuse to go down. This is going to persist until there is a significant increase in volume to terminate the trend and there is a powerful spike above the line.
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Chucklez
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May 02, 2014, 11:41:28 PM
 #22

The 'tards are the ones still buying at these prices.
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May 02, 2014, 11:52:53 PM
 #23

The 'tards are the ones still buying at these prices.

Not sure if "'tards" are buing, but more "'tards" more profit.
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May 02, 2014, 11:58:43 PM
 #24

Do you not know how to read a chart and analyze a trend? When price is close to the downtrend, the market is just looking for any excuse to go down. This is going to persist until there is a significant increase in volume to terminate the trend and there is a powerful spike above the line.

There are analysts left right and centre scrutinising Bitcoin. Some of them are bullish, some of them are bearish. Thus they are looking at the same data and coming to different conclusions. How could that be?

So what trend are we looking at here?

Trend on 4hr hour chart on correction from bounce since 16th April?

If so, then I make the upper reaches of that corrective trend to currently be around $460, and the lower reaches to be $400. We are currently at $450. All the bigger purchases are eating into the Ask wall, not selling into Bid wall (on circlejerking Bitstamp anyhow). So we are at the upper extremities of the correction trend, buying pressure seems to be having the upper hand. We have had a textbook 60% retrace from the bounce up from the bottom, several indicators are showing signs of recovering from an overly depressed state, the 1 day MACD is looking as though it ready to cross......

......what is not to like for the bullish near term case?

I agree with you, Bitcoin for me right now as a long investment is as I said, 'skating on thin ice' (i.e. don't fkn do it). But how could you argue against the long case with all these technicals in it's favour?

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May 03, 2014, 12:02:29 AM
 #25

Do you not know how to read a chart and analyze a trend? When price is close to the downtrend, the market is just looking for any excuse to go down. This is going to persist until there is a significant increase in volume to terminate the trend and there is a powerful spike above the line.

There are analysts left right and centre scrutinising Bitcoin. Some of them are bullish, some of them are bearish. Thus they are looking at the same data and coming to different conclusions. How could that be?

So what trend are we looking at here?

Trend on 4hr hour chart on correction from bounce since 16th April?

If so, then I make the upper reaches of that corrective trend to currently be around $460, and the lower reaches to be $400. We are currently at $450. All the bigger purchases are eating into the Ask wall, not selling into Bid wall. So we are at the upper extremities of the correction trend, buying pressure seems to be having the upper hand. We have had a textbook 60% retrace from the bounce up from the bottom, several indicators are showing signs of recovering from a depressed state, the 1 day MACD is looking as though it ready to cross......

......what is not to like for the bullish case?

I agree with you, Bitcoin for me right now as a long investment is as I said, 'skating on thin ice' (i.e. don't fkn do it). But how could you argue against the long case with these technicals in it's favour?
5 month downtrend with 1W EMA downcross trumps 1-2 week old insignificant up movement. We have seen the fake 1D MACD crosses and almost 1D MACD crosses and 3D MACD crosses before only to serve as a trap before a violent downwards movement. The downtrend is not going to be broken by weakly nudging up against it. It will be broken with volume and a vigorous spike way above it. Yes I agree that the downtrend will eventually give way to long term uptrend but probably not at this level.
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May 03, 2014, 12:03:34 AM
 #26

The 'tards are the ones still buying at these prices.

Not sure if "'tards" are buing, but more "'tards" more profit.

not native speaker but maybe:

I'm not sure if "'tards" buys, but THE more "'tards" THE more profit.
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May 03, 2014, 12:06:42 AM
 #27

5 month downtrend with 1W EMA downcross trumps 1-2 week old insignificant up movement. We have seen the fake 1D MACD crosses and almost 1D MACD crosses and 3D MACD crosses before only to serve as a trap before a violent downwards movement. The downtrend is not going to be broken by weakly nudging up against it. It will be broken with volume and a vigorous spike way above it. Yes I agree that the downtrend will eventually give way to long term uptrend but probably not at this level.

Ya know what?

I hadn't even spotted that!

Last time that happened was in 2011 and Bitcoin was at $10.49, and ultimately bottomed out at $2.22. When it crossed back up, Bitcoin was at $5.44.

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May 03, 2014, 12:54:06 AM
 #28

It's obvious the Bears didn't learn much from the $360 to $540 rally.

Skating on thin ice?
We are much closer to the bottom than the top.
The Bears are skating on thinner ice.

TERA
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May 03, 2014, 12:55:55 AM
 #29

It's obvious the Bears didn't learn much from the $360 to $540 rally.

Skating on thin ice?
We are much closer to the bottom than the top.
The Bears are skating on thinner ice.
No you're wrong. I did realize something from that rally:  a profit!

How about you, did you get any of the action or are you still holding on to some coins you bought at $1000?
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May 03, 2014, 01:26:19 AM
 #30

It's obvious the Bears didn't learn much from the $360 to $540 rally.

Skating on thin ice?
We are much closer to the bottom than the top.
The Bears are skating on thinner ice.
No you're wrong. I did realize something from that rally:  a profit!

How about you, did you get any of the action or are you still holding on to some coins you bought at $1000?

If the market is moving, then I get action since there is money to make in both directions.


We are much closer to the bottom than the top.
^^^
It is currently mathematically impossible to show the above statement to be false.
Therefore it is true.  Smiley

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May 03, 2014, 02:21:49 AM
 #31

It's obvious the Bears didn't learn much from the $360 to $540 rally.

Skating on thin ice?
We are much closer to the bottom than the top.
The Bears are skating on thinner ice.
No you're wrong. I did realize something from that rally:  a profit!

How about you, did you get any of the action or are you still holding on to some coins you bought at $1000?

If the market is moving, then I get action since there is money to make in both directions.


We are much closer to the bottom than the top.
^^^
It is currently mathematically impossible to show the above statement to be false.
Therefore it is true.  Smiley

I disagree as the bottom is clearly defined as 0 which is ~460 from the current position

The TOP is an infinate value only limted by our ability to describe a value of such an enourmous magnatude ...therefore lets agree that a number with 10 trillion zeros aftre it is a possible candidate vs our bottom value of 400 ...it is clearly TRUE that we are MUCH MUCH closer to the bottom that the TOP  Tongue

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May 03, 2014, 02:26:41 AM
 #32

...
The TOP is an infinate value only limted by our ability to describe a value of such an enourmous magnatude ...therefore lets agree that a number with 10 trillion zeros aftre it is a possible candidate vs our bottom value of 400 ...it is clearly TRUE that we are MUCH MUCH closer to the bottom that the TOP  Tongue

OK  Smiley
At least the worst case is limited.
I tried commodity trading a few times (very high leverage with small margin requirements), and what we have here is a virtual paradise.

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May 03, 2014, 03:11:08 AM
 #33

anyway fuck u yomofo =) haha u cant earn much.. price only drop +-10usd LOL..
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May 03, 2014, 03:13:17 AM
 #34

The china bubble still has not fully worked its way out of the market.

The price will continue to trend down until it does.  Don't sweat it.  Simply watch for the base to form, then buy all you can afford once it forms.

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May 03, 2014, 03:42:21 AM
 #35

We have had a textbook 60% retrace from the bounce up from the bottom... the 1 day MACD is looking as though it ready to cross......

5 month downtrend with 1W EMA downcross trumps 1-2 week old insignificant up movement. We have seen the fake 1D MACD crosses and almost 1D MACD crosses and 3D MACD crosses before ...
Having never studied TA, when I read sentences like the above, I imagine that somewhere, there must be a computer program similar to the Postmodernism Generator [1] but instead of spitting out imitations of postmodernist writing, it spits out TA.

[1] http://www.elsewhere.org/pomo/

BTC: 14oTcy1DNEXbcYjzPBpRWV11ZafWxNP8EU
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May 03, 2014, 03:53:12 AM
 #36

The china bubble still has not fully worked its way out of the market.

The price will continue to trend down until it does.  Don't sweat it.  Simply watch for the base to form, then buy all you can afford once it forms.


Markets are not always that simple, for example:
In 2011 the first time down (from ~$32 to $10.25) there was no base, it was a fast 'V' bottom and people following your type of advice would have missed a rally of over 100%.
Much later, BTC finally went excessively quiet and a base was formed.

  • We are still dealing with a massive long-term uptrend (not a "true/confirmed" Bear market) so it is possible for a rally to start almost any time.

Unfortunately, quiet and boring is a likely option for now.

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May 03, 2014, 04:00:00 AM
 #37

The china bubble still has not fully worked its way out of the market.

The price will continue to trend down until it does.  Don't sweat it.  Simply watch for the base to form, then buy all you can afford once it forms.


Markets are not always that simple, for example:
In 2011 the first time down (from ~$32 to $10.25) there was no base, it was a fast 'V' bottom and people following your type of advice would have missed a rally of over 100%.
Much later, BTC finally went excessively quiet and a base was formed.

  • We are still dealing with a massive long-term uptrend (not a "true/confirmed" Bear market) so it is possible for a rally to start almost any time.

Unfortunately, quiet and boring is a likely option for now.

maybe some action just b4 July 31 otherwise we may be in this sideways action for a while Sad

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scottsecret
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May 03, 2014, 04:01:18 AM
 #38

As long as China is still viable, it appears they will be affecting the price far too much.  One "banking official" makes a statement and it is reported in press.  Bitcoin is affected $50.  This has happened a few times, both up and down.
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May 03, 2014, 04:44:20 AM
 #39

The china bubble still has not fully worked its way out of the market.

The price will continue to trend down until it does.  Don't sweat it.  Simply watch for the base to form, then buy all you can afford once it forms.


Markets are not always that simple, for example:
In 2011 the first time down (from ~$32 to $10.25) there was no base, it was a fast 'V' bottom and people following your type of advice would have missed a rally of over 100%.
Much later, BTC finally went excessively quiet and a base was formed.

  • We are still dealing with a massive long-term uptrend (not a "true/confirmed" Bear market) so it is possible for a rally to start almost any time.

Unfortunately, quiet and boring is a likely option for now.

Time will tell, but put me down on record saying we will not see another run until a base forms.

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May 03, 2014, 07:37:51 AM
 #40

The china bubble still has not fully worked its way out of the market.

The price will continue to trend down until it does.  Don't sweat it.  Simply watch for the base to form, then buy all you can afford once it forms.


Markets are not always that simple, for example:
In 2011 the first time down (from ~$32 to $10.25) there was no base, it was a fast 'V' bottom and people following your type of advice would have missed a rally of over 100%.
Much later, BTC finally went excessively quiet and a base was formed.

  • We are still dealing with a massive long-term uptrend (not a "true/confirmed" Bear market) so it is possible for a rally to start almost any time.

Unfortunately, quiet and boring is a likely option for now.

Time will tell, but put me down on record saying we will not see another run until a base forms.



On record ..now is this a potato bake base ...as I am hungry and this is the only base that come to my mind ;P

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