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Author Topic: Are we starting a bull run?  (Read 6149 times)
TERA
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May 10, 2014, 08:12:41 AM
 #41

It's more like a bull walk.
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May 10, 2014, 08:42:56 AM
 #42

that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.

This is what is going on. We are above the normal trendline and have retested 2 times, and we are heading to the logscale trendline. If we are to break trough it, it definitely is bull even if we are going down again to retest it.

We have also made a new low higher than the precedent, which is a sign of a reversal.

I will not advise to use lagging indicators as you will always be late for actions. And i m not using EW, because EW is like economists, every experts have a different opinions. It sure have some good ideas, but as everyone has a different opinion on the wave counts, it is very difficult to rally bulls or bears.

As Tera posted earlier, not sure on this thread tho, there is marging call going on. "All margin positions need to close by 10th May at OKCoin and Huobi".
My opinion is that we wont break the logscale trendline yet, because of a fibo line acting as resistance as well.

But we are definitely in a bull walk. Just warming up.
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May 10, 2014, 08:43:02 AM
 #43

It's more like a bull walk.

Its funny. Visually, when I looked at the chart I originally thought there was a much stronger impulse up on Houbi from this most recent low at 2559 than there was from the one before it at 2555. So I assumed this one would go higher and potentially break 2867.5.

But then I counted the bars and realized that in fact this movement up has taken longer and seems to have slightly less momentum forward. So, now I am not so sure that this move up is going to breach 2867.5 or even 2859.6 - the most recent high.

It will be interesting to see.  The 10th is tomorrow. Either we break higher towards 3000 or this thing starts to reverse down again.

If you haven't heard about what is happening with GAME, check it out.  It's revolutionizing gaming. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266597.0
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May 10, 2014, 09:35:43 AM
 #44

It's more like a bull walk.

or catwalk Tongue bitcoin has all the time in the world. it will suffer from erectile dysfunction until the last bear has been trapped. our bear population is quite resilient, though.

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May 10, 2014, 11:41:45 AM
 #45

that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.

From an EW analysts point of view, a trendline only needs to have two points of coincidence providing those two points are the start of Wave 1, and the retracement of Wave 2 in order to remain valid for the cycle. The EW cycle is considered finished only when the trendline is breached. As for the argument of log scale v linear scale, being a noob myself, I don't really know for sure which applies best, but it seems that any serious analyst uses log scale for measuring long time periods and/or massive changes in value. After all, Bitcoin going up from $5 to $10 means the same to someone invested in it as Bitcoin going from $500-$1000. Also, draw the line of your lesser wedge on the log scale starting from $995, and you will find that the post crash bounces to $710, and to $548, have played this lesser EW cycle trendline like a dream. Seems that the log scale trendline is hitting the exuberant excesses of the market bang on the head, whereas the linear scale just isn't. Afterall, we have already had a couple of break outs on two fairly 'significant' linear scale trendlines yet 'nothing happens'. I would suggest that one should indeed be using log scale when analysing the bigger picture in Bitcoin.

It will be interesting to see.  The 10th is tomorrow. Either we break higher towards 3000 or this thing starts to reverse down again.

Whenever do the infamous dates actually coincide with significant market action?

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May 10, 2014, 12:23:22 PM
 #46

we are not dealing with a primary here, we are dealing with an ABC. connect the top of wave V with wave B and it will be meaningless every time.

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May 10, 2014, 12:47:34 PM
 #47

we are not dealing with a primary here, we are dealing with an ABC. connect the top of wave V with wave B and it will be meaningless every time.

No matter how you want to frame it, there is no confirmed reversal until the 1150 - $995, and currently at around $595 trendline is broken. Sure, if Bitcoin gets up to around $480 and turns the nearest resistance line up there into a support, then a long punt makes sense, albeit with keeping a close eye on how the market responds to the main trendline above it. Should it even get there before taking a leg down. Who is to say that $340 won't simply turn out to be a leg A of a primary 3-swing move to constitute a wave 4? As DanV points out, there is no confirmation that the Wave 4 is over until that upper trendline is taken out. Bitcoin could rise $100 (a fantastic long trade in anyones books) and still not take out the upper trendline. If this transpires to be the case, then we have a good way to go in this bear market yet. After all, If DanV's wave 3 took 18 months to play out, then 9 months or even 12 months for the Wave 4 to play out wouldn't be unreasonable to expect.

I am not an expert in EW. Have only discovered it via DanV in the last week tbh. I do however have a good memory and remember arguing with you over whether Bitcoin was going down (my position) or up (your position) back when Bitcoin was in $800 territory. Not that I knew who DanV was back then, but having viewed some of his old YouTube videos, I can confirm that DanV was saying the market was going down when you were saying it was going up. DanV has been pretty bang on the money since he started putting out Bitcoin EW analysis. Like I said before, this suggests to me that he is framing his wave counts correctly, whilst up until now, you haven't been.

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May 10, 2014, 01:20:01 PM
 #48

that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.

This is what is going on. We are above the normal trendline and have retested 2 times, and we are heading to the logscale trendline. If we are to break trough it, it definitely is bull even if we are going down again to retest it.

We have also made a new low higher than the precedent, which is a sign of a reversal.

I will not advise to use lagging indicators as you will always be late for actions. And i m not using EW, because EW is like economists, every experts have a different opinions. It sure have some good ideas, but as everyone has a different opinion on the wave counts, it is very difficult to rally bulls or bears.

As Tera posted earlier, not sure on this thread tho, there is marging call going on. "All margin positions need to close by 10th May at OKCoin and Huobi".
My opinion is that we wont break the logscale trendline yet, because of a fibo line acting as resistance as well.

But we are definitely in a bull walk. Just warming up.

No currently we are far below the long term trend line.  It doesn't matter if you are calculating it in log or not.  Check out http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php to see the trend line for yourself.

http://cryptocoinstats.com/

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May 10, 2014, 04:07:51 PM
 #49

that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.

This is what is going on. We are above the normal trendline and have retested 2 times, and we are heading to the logscale trendline. If we are to break trough it, it definitely is bull even if we are going down again to retest it.

We have also made a new low higher than the precedent, which is a sign of a reversal.

I will not advise to use lagging indicators as you will always be late for actions. And i m not using EW, because EW is like economists, every experts have a different opinions. It sure have some good ideas, but as everyone has a different opinion on the wave counts, it is very difficult to rally bulls or bears.

As Tera posted earlier, not sure on this thread tho, there is marging call going on. "All margin positions need to close by 10th May at OKCoin and Huobi".
My opinion is that we wont break the logscale trendline yet, because of a fibo line acting as resistance as well.

But we are definitely in a bull walk. Just warming up.

No currently we are far below the long term trend line.  It doesn't matter if you are calculating it in log or not.  Check out http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php to see the trend line for yourself.

I don t know if i should answer that? Is that kind of a joke?
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May 10, 2014, 04:09:43 PM
 #50

that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.

This is what is going on. We are above the normal trendline and have retested 2 times, and we are heading to the logscale trendline. If we are to break trough it, it definitely is bull even if we are going down again to retest it.

We have also made a new low higher than the precedent, which is a sign of a reversal.

I will not advise to use lagging indicators as you will always be late for actions. And i m not using EW, because EW is like economists, every experts have a different opinions. It sure have some good ideas, but as everyone has a different opinion on the wave counts, it is very difficult to rally bulls or bears.

As Tera posted earlier, not sure on this thread tho, there is marging call going on. "All margin positions need to close by 10th May at OKCoin and Huobi".
My opinion is that we wont break the logscale trendline yet, because of a fibo line acting as resistance as well.

But we are definitely in a bull walk. Just warming up.

No currently we are far below the long term trend line.  It doesn't matter if you are calculating it in log or not.  Check out http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php to see the trend line for yourself.

FTR, that isn't a trend line. That is just an exponential moving average. 3 month 90 day if I had to guess the params.

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May 10, 2014, 09:11:41 PM
 #51

that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.

This is what is going on. We are above the normal trendline and have retested 2 times, and we are heading to the logscale trendline. If we are to break trough it, it definitely is bull even if we are going down again to retest it.

We have also made a new low higher than the precedent, which is a sign of a reversal.

I will not advise to use lagging indicators as you will always be late for actions. And i m not using EW, because EW is like economists, every experts have a different opinions. It sure have some good ideas, but as everyone has a different opinion on the wave counts, it is very difficult to rally bulls or bears.

As Tera posted earlier, not sure on this thread tho, there is marging call going on. "All margin positions need to close by 10th May at OKCoin and Huobi".
My opinion is that we wont break the logscale trendline yet, because of a fibo line acting as resistance as well.

But we are definitely in a bull walk. Just warming up.

No currently we are far below the long term trend line.  It doesn't matter if you are calculating it in log or not.  Check out http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php to see the trend line for yourself.

FTR, that isn't a trend line. That is just an exponential moving average. 3 month 90 day if I had to guess the params.

No that's linear regression calculated for each day.

http://cryptocoinstats.com/

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May 10, 2014, 10:02:40 PM
 #52

that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.

This is what is going on. We are above the normal trendline and have retested 2 times, and we are heading to the logscale trendline. If we are to break trough it, it definitely is bull even if we are going down again to retest it.

We have also made a new low higher than the precedent, which is a sign of a reversal.

I will not advise to use lagging indicators as you will always be late for actions. And i m not using EW, because EW is like economists, every experts have a different opinions. It sure have some good ideas, but as everyone has a different opinion on the wave counts, it is very difficult to rally bulls or bears.

As Tera posted earlier, not sure on this thread tho, there is marging call going on. "All margin positions need to close by 10th May at OKCoin and Huobi".
My opinion is that we wont break the logscale trendline yet, because of a fibo line acting as resistance as well.

But we are definitely in a bull walk. Just warming up.

No currently we are far below the long term trend line.  It doesn't matter if you are calculating it in log or not.  Check out http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php to see the trend line for yourself.

interesting, all the scamcoins, including dogecoin and EVEN litecoin rapidly go down, both in expected and actual value.
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May 10, 2014, 10:37:59 PM
 #53

that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.

This is what is going on. We are above the normal trendline and have retested 2 times, and we are heading to the logscale trendline. If we are to break trough it, it definitely is bull even if we are going down again to retest it.

We have also made a new low higher than the precedent, which is a sign of a reversal.

I will not advise to use lagging indicators as you will always be late for actions. And i m not using EW, because EW is like economists, every experts have a different opinions. It sure have some good ideas, but as everyone has a different opinion on the wave counts, it is very difficult to rally bulls or bears.

As Tera posted earlier, not sure on this thread tho, there is marging call going on. "All margin positions need to close by 10th May at OKCoin and Huobi".
My opinion is that we wont break the logscale trendline yet, because of a fibo line acting as resistance as well.

But we are definitely in a bull walk. Just warming up.

No currently we are far below the long term trend line.  It doesn't matter if you are calculating it in log or not.  Check out http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php to see the trend line for yourself.

FTR, that isn't a trend line. That is just an exponential moving average. 3 month 90 day if I had to guess the params.

No that's linear regression calculated for each day.

Please read about TA online.

And i was mentionning the resistance trendlineS.
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May 10, 2014, 10:59:18 PM
 #54

I think Bitpay's tweet today is going to help launch this bull run nicely.   Grin

https://twitter.com/BitPay/status/465206481474686976

1BitcHiCK1iRa6YVY6qDqC6M594RBYLNPo
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May 10, 2014, 11:33:35 PM
 #55

we are not dealing with a primary here, we are dealing with an ABC. connect the top of wave V with wave B and it will be meaningless every time.

No matter how you want to frame it, there is no confirmed reversal until the 1150 - $995
, and currently at around $595 trendline is broken. Sure, if Bitcoin gets up to around $480 and turns the nearest resistance line up there into a support, then a long punt makes sense, albeit with keeping a close eye on how the market responds to the main trendline above it. Should it even get there before taking a leg down. Who is to say that $340 won't simply turn out to be a leg A of a primary 3-swing move to constitute a wave 4? As DanV points out, there is no confirmation that the Wave 4 is over until that upper trendline is taken out. Bitcoin could rise $100 (a fantastic long trade in anyones books) and still not take out the upper trendline. If this transpires to be the case, then we have a good way to go in this bear market yet. After all, If DanV's wave 3 took 18 months to play out, then 9 months or even 12 months for the Wave 4 to play out wouldn't be unreasonable to expect.

I am not an expert in EW. Have only discovered it via DanV in the last week tbh. I do however have a good memory and remember arguing with you over whether Bitcoin was going down (my position) or up (your position) back when Bitcoin was in $800 territory. Not that I knew who DanV was back then, but having viewed some of his old YouTube videos, I can confirm that DanV was saying the market was going down when you were saying it was going up. DanV has been pretty bang on the money since he started putting out Bitcoin EW analysis. Like I said before, this suggests to me that he is framing his wave counts correctly, whilst up until now, you haven't been.

thats entirely speculation. many would argue we havent even reversed down.
when you were saying sell, you had no better reason for it than the price was too high and you didnt like it. At that point we were at a juncture, after completing an ABC, C being impulsive, and we were going up, rather impulsively. I told you that i could see further down side was possible but I held until I could see that for sure, and then I made great deal shorting from cerca 750. Mind you I called the mt gox bottom and the 339 bottom.

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May 10, 2014, 11:37:29 PM
 #56

we are not dealing with a primary here, we are dealing with an ABC. connect the top of wave V with wave B and it will be meaningless every time.

No matter how you want to frame it, there is no confirmed reversal until the 1150 - $995, and currently at around $595 trendline is broken. Sure, if Bitcoin gets up to around $480 and turns the nearest resistance line up there into a support, then a long punt makes sense, albeit with keeping a close eye on how the market responds to the main trendline above it. Should it even get there before taking a leg down. Who is to say that $340 won't simply turn out to be a leg A of a primary 3-swing move to constitute a wave 4? As DanV points out, there is no confirmation that the Wave 4 is over until that upper trendline is taken out. Bitcoin could rise $100 (a fantastic long trade in anyones books) and still not take out the upper trendline. If this transpires to be the case, then we have a good way to go in this bear market yet. After all, If DanV's wave 3 took 18 months to play out, then 9 months or even 12 months for the Wave 4 to play out wouldn't be unreasonable to expect.

I am not an expert in EW. Have only discovered it via DanV in the last week tbh. I do however have a good memory and remember arguing with you over whether Bitcoin was going down (my position) or up (your position) back when Bitcoin was in $800 territory. Not that I knew who DanV was back then, but having viewed some of his old YouTube videos, I can confirm that DanV was saying the market was going down when you were saying it was going up. DanV has been pretty bang on the money since he started putting out Bitcoin EW analysis. Like I said before, this suggests to me that he is framing his wave counts correctly, whilst up until now, you haven't been.

You are in so much denial ...its a joke

Can only see your own imposed view point

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May 11, 2014, 12:04:38 AM
 #57


You are in so much denial ...its a joke

Can only see your own imposed view point


I suspect you have absolutely no fkn clue what I am even referring to. I am referring not to my own TA, but DanV's. DanV is the nasty Indian chap who, when Bitcoin was rebounding from first China ban crash and absolutely everyone was bullish (including myself), said that according to his EW analysis, the $450 low (he was using Gox as his chart) would be retested. That was on 5th Jan, with Bitcoin charging up past $1000 on Gox. To balance the scales, he was also expecting Bitcoin to go higher than it did but did state that the potential highs on that move were limited.

DanV has established two long term trendlines on his log scale Bitcoin graph. One runs from $995, $710, $548, and is currently sitting around $470. The other, the one which would need to be breached in order for DanV's wave 4 trendline to be confirmed as completed, runs from $1160, $995, and is currently hovering around $590. Now, should Bitcoin get up to, breach and show signs of holding above the trendline at $470, then I shall definitely be looking at a long trade as even if I doubt that the wave 4 has yet completed, there is still a lot of upside between the lower and upper trendlines.

So what the fk is this about my own imposed viewpoint? And if I can only see someone else's imposed viewpoint, who am I going to listen to.

DanV, with a track record of calling future market action to an impeccable standard.....

....or......

'Yip Yip' the forum Bitcoin Kool-Aid merchant?

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May 11, 2014, 12:16:37 AM
 #58


You are in so much denial ...its a joke

Can only see your own imposed view point


I suspect you have absolutely no fkn clue what I am even referring to. I am referring not to my own TA, but DanV's. DanV is the nasty Indian chap who, when Bitcoin was rebounding from first China ban crash and absolutely everyone was bullish (including myself), said that according to his EW analysis, the $450 low (he was using Gox as his chart) would be retested. That was on 5th Jan, with Bitcoin charging up past $1000 on Gox. To balance the scales, he was also expecting Bitcoin to go higher than it did but did state that the potential highs on that move were limited.

DanV has established two long term trendlines on his log scale Bitcoin graph. One runs from $995, $710, $548, and is currently sitting around $470. The other, the one which would need to be breached in order for DanV's wave 4 trendline to be confirmed as completed, runs from $1160, $995, and is currently hovering around $590. Now, should Bitcoin get up to, breach and show signs of holding above the trendline at $470, then I shall definitely be looking at a long trade as even if I doubt that the wave 4 has yet completed, there is still a lot of upside between the lower and upper trendlines.

So what the fk is this about my own imposed viewpoint? And if I can only see someone else's imposed viewpoint, who am I going to listen to.

DanV, with a track record of calling future market action to an impeccable standard.....

....or......

'Yip Yip' the forum Bitcoin Kool-Aid merchant?


...lolz so much anger ..things not tracking to plan eh

oh well ..you reap what you sow

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May 11, 2014, 12:31:58 AM
 #59

...lolz so much anger ..things not tracking to plan eh

oh well ..you reap what you sow

m8. I have no position in Bitcoin at the moment. I have banned myself from shorting or using leverage, otherwise I would have shorted at $520, which was my last 'official' call.....yeah, it went up as high as $548...would my nerve have held out after my last 'market chasing' short trade? Possibly not (which is why I have banned myself from touching leverage/shorting).

Thus, I have restricted myself to only trading long with 'physical' Bitcoin. So I am waiting on a long opportunity to present itself. Recent Bitcoin dreams I had pointed to longer periods and greater amounts of upside than downside. I have short/medium term bullish tingles in my groin, but I am being precautious. This is a vicious market and false sucker break-outs are par for the course. Practically before every brutal correction, there has been a low volume break-out of some description that would lure the overly bullish into a very bad investment. I have just had the most horrible trade of my life, if waiting for $30 worth of market action b4 taking a long lowers my risk of repeating such a horrible trade, then that is what I am going to do. Will let some other suckers jump in and take the first $20-$30 of the upside.

For me to go long, I am waiting on lesser log wave 4 trendline being breached. That presently means prices of around $475. Failing that, I would suggest that I have seen such a low volume trickle over a linear trendline many times b4 with Bitcoin which has very often been followed by a brutal correction. For example, I find it quite concerning how the price has been rising from $420 yet the volume decreasing over the past few days. May just be a blip. But if the textbook is applied, that is a very bearish signal.

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May 11, 2014, 02:15:30 AM
 #60

...lolz so much anger ..things not tracking to plan eh

oh well ..you reap what you sow

m8. I have no position in Bitcoin at the moment. I have banned myself from shorting or using leverage, otherwise I would have shorted at $520, which was my last 'official' call.....yeah, it went up as high as $548...would my nerve have held out after my last 'market chasing' short trade? Possibly not (which is why I have banned myself from touching leverage/shorting).

Thus, I have restricted myself to only trading long with 'physical' Bitcoin. So I am waiting on a long opportunity to present itself. Recent Bitcoin dreams I had pointed to longer periods and greater amounts of upside than downside. I have short/medium term bullish tingles in my groin, but I am being precautious. This is a vicious market and false sucker break-outs are par for the course. Practically before every brutal correction, there has been a low volume break-out of some description that would lure the overly bullish into a very bad investment. I have just had the most horrible trade of my life, if waiting for $30 worth of market action b4 taking a long lowers my risk of repeating such a horrible trade, then that is what I am going to do. Will let some other suckers jump in and take the first $20-$30 of the upside.

For me to go long, I am waiting on lesser log wave 4 trendline being breached. That presently means prices of around $475. Failing that, I would suggest that I have seen such a low volume trickle over a linear trendline many times b4 with Bitcoin which has very often been followed by a brutal correction. For example, I find it quite concerning how the price has been rising from $420 yet the volume decreasing over the past few days. May just be a blip. But if the textbook is applied, that is a very bearish signal.

This is where I point out that crypt does not really do TA tooo well ..

We may hang out in this channel for the next 4-5 weeks but it wont break the 415 support point ...sub 300 would have happened about 2 weeks ago IMHO

It may be a very long and slow steady climb...china FUD effect is finished


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