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Author Topic: Rally starting at 4 pm EST  (Read 4529 times)
Technomage
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January 19, 2012, 10:14:04 PM
 #21

There is a mini-rally going on right now.

Prasos operates Denarium, Coinmotion and Bittiraha.fi. We have an equity offering now live! Check our pitch and invest at Invesdor.
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cypherdoc
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January 19, 2012, 10:23:18 PM
 #22

There is a mini-rally going on right now.

well, i did say small.

i forgot to say that it takes them a few minutes to roll their computers over to the Bitcoin room. Cheesy
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January 19, 2012, 10:25:38 PM
 #23

Dont forget though the weekends coming  Tongue

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January 19, 2012, 10:40:03 PM
 #24

Dont forget though the weekends coming  Tongue

"Bitcoin always goes down on the weeken, get your cheap coins on the weekend!"

One off NP-Hard.
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January 19, 2012, 10:46:50 PM
 #25

Dont forget though the weekends coming  Tongue

"Bitcoin always goes down on the weeken, get your cheap coins on the weekend!"

Except when it rallies on the weekend.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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cypherdoc
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January 19, 2012, 11:07:56 PM
 #26

i'll be d*mned.  they got back from the Pub early.
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January 19, 2012, 11:20:43 PM
 #27

Just over $1.5 million in bids right now.
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January 19, 2012, 11:32:12 PM
 #28

I don't understand why all this money has decided to shows itself right now.  Maybe this is new money?
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January 19, 2012, 11:32:41 PM
 #29

Just over $1.5 million in bids right now.

New all time high?
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January 19, 2012, 11:33:41 PM
 #30

That type of correlation has popped up and faded away several times in the past... I've made a study of it.

All totaled, it is not terribly reliable to try and base Bitcoin on the price movement of stocks.

actually i could make a theoretical case by which it would make sense that this phenomenon would occur.

Bitcoin, being the small cap like high risk investment it is, would be subject to the liquidity existing in the system.  afterall, it was invented to protect adopters from the devaluation shenanigans of the central banks.

the Dow is also highly sensitive to this liquidity pump.  as we can see, it is rallying from oversold levels and extreme pessimism in the general economy.  stocks appear to have been right and debt markets appear to have been wrong since late last year.  this is contrary to the classical wisdom of the last 4 years and is causing all sorts of cognitive dissonance in traders psyche.  i've written about this extensively in my blog.  the rise in the USD has also been a conundrum for all except those following my lead.

the Dow can be thought of as the General fighting its way up the Wall of Worry with the troops (the Russell, NDX, Transports, S&P, techs, fins) all just now following its lead.  why should Bitcoin be any different?  as the Dow closes UP at 4pm, it might make sense for traders from other markets, including traders like us, to take its lead and pump up Bitcoin as a result.  the Dow is predicting QE3 i'm sure. 

and so is Bitcoin.
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January 19, 2012, 11:35:15 PM
 #31

Just over $1.5 million in bids right now.

New all time high?

As far as I know.  Certainly a new high over the time period I've been watching it ( a few weeks now)
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January 19, 2012, 11:43:06 PM
 #32

That type of correlation has popped up and faded away several times in the past... I've made a study of it.

All totaled, it is not terribly reliable to try and base Bitcoin on the price movement of stocks.

actually i could make a theoretical case by which it would make sense that this phenomenon would occur.

Bitcoin, being the small cap like high risk investment it is, would be subject to the liquidity existing in the system.  afterall, it was invented to protect adopters from the devaluation shenanigans of the central banks.

the Dow is also highly sensitive to this liquidity pump.  as we can see, it is rallying from oversold levels and extreme pessimism in the general economy.  stocks appear to have been right and debt markets appear to have been wrong since late last year.  this is contrary to the classical wisdom of the last 4 years and is causing all sorts of cognitive dissonance in traders psyche.  i've written about this extensively in my blog.  the rise in the USD has also been a conundrum for all except those following my lead.

the Dow can be thought of as the General fighting its way up the Wall of Worry with the troops (the Russell, NDX, Transports, S&P, techs, fins) all just now following its lead.  why should Bitcoin be any different?  as the Dow closes UP at 4pm, it might make sense for traders from other markets, including traders like us, to take its lead and pump up Bitcoin as a result.  the Dow is predicting QE3 i'm sure. 

and so is Bitcoin.

I understand the rationale. But from an empirical standpoint a correlation with stocks has not proven to be durable.

it would be great to see your methodology.

but just offhand, when last year did the Dow start turning down?  May

when did Bitcoin begin its downturn?  June.

when did the Dow start turning back up?  October.

when did Bitcoin make the turn?  November.
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January 19, 2012, 11:46:29 PM
 #33

it would be great to see your methodology.

but just offhand, when last year did the Dow start turning down?  May

when did Bitcoin begin its downturn?  June.

when did the Dow start turning back up?  October.

when did Bitcoin make the turn?  November.

That is interesting, but of course we don't have enough bitcoin history to be able to say anything with a decent level of confidence.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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cypherdoc
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January 19, 2012, 11:47:15 PM
 #34

it would be great to see your methodology.

but just offhand, when last year did the Dow start turning down?  May

when did Bitcoin begin its downturn?  June.

when did the Dow start turning back up?  October.

when did Bitcoin make the turn?  November.

That is interesting, but of course we don't have enough bitcoin history to be able to say anything with a decent level of confidence.

actually it would be fair to say both bottomed in October.
Technomage
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January 19, 2012, 11:52:03 PM
 #35

Quite a decent rally afterall, we broke through the 24h high which is something. I feel there is some pressure to go up. It speaks of an overall very bullish market that we're recovering so well.

Prasos operates Denarium, Coinmotion and Bittiraha.fi. We have an equity offering now live! Check our pitch and invest at Invesdor.
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January 19, 2012, 11:56:52 PM
 #36

Quite a decent rally afterall, we broke through the 24h high which is something. I feel there is some pressure to go up. It speaks of an overall very bullish market that we're recovering so well.

this is what happens after everyone gets taken out and shot.  the thread with the guy who wants to buy but can't is so typical.

we are entering Wave 3 up and most here will be left behind.
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January 20, 2012, 12:00:20 AM
 #37

if this keeps up we are going to test the recent downtrend around 6.4-6.45


This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.
Censorship of e-gold was easy. Censorship of Bitcoin will be… entertaining.
cypherdoc
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January 20, 2012, 06:44:48 PM
 #38

remember what happens if the Dow ends UP.
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January 20, 2012, 07:03:46 PM
 #39

Essentially, nothing has changed since January 5, there have been no new net dollars coming in. I see no reason to be anything but neutral in the short-mid term. But if you are long term bullish it is a great time to buy on the dips.

do you measure net dollars based on the mtgox order book?
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January 20, 2012, 07:08:19 PM
 #40

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