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Author Topic: Incoming stock crash?  (Read 4894 times)
@ThisWeeksCoin
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May 11, 2014, 03:25:56 PM
 #21

Everyone is expecting a correction.  Crash?  Not unless WW3 or something of that magnitude happens

I believe that there will be a crash in U.S. equities market before the current president leaves office. This allows for 'the top' as far out as 2016.

I was wrong in my projection ( I drew this chart in 2010 and projected a new all time high in 2016 and not before ) but it still allows for 'the top' to occur before 2016.


This is the year I believe.

US needs to print more money, or sell weapons & drugs.

Oh, right, they're already doing that, lol


Why I made this topic is: Been reading a lot lately. All I see is WW3.
Or just "another" attack from a caveman from somewhere in Pakistan

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BitDreams
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May 11, 2014, 04:06:51 PM
 #22

We may someday look back and define current events as ww3, pick any random starting point since the official end of ww2. It's hard to see the difference between conflict and war these days.

Instead, I like to imagine the effects of bitcon on the world when fully adopted.  We may only get a 25% correction (instead of 50%) and markets (when looking back from say.. 2020) appear to have maintained a long correction, with a new bull market like we saw starting in 1983. A cycles / timing guy I follow - http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/ has a major market pivot of Oct. 1, 2015 so that might be the place to start looking for the next global bull market.
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May 11, 2014, 04:56:14 PM
 #23

I don't see any point with checking current figures with old ones, history never repeats itself. Even people study history to "avoid previous mistakes", but, agree, after WWI happened WWII. I like Nassim Taleb philosophy.
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May 11, 2014, 06:09:41 PM
 #24

I don't see any point with checking current figures with old ones, history never repeats itself. Even people study history to "avoid previous mistakes", but, agree, after WWI happened WWII. I like Nassim Taleb philosophy.

can't tell if this is sarcasm, i think if you look closer you'll find that history most certainly repeats itself, our lives are just a bunch of cylces, we live we die, empires rise and empires fall, people in power abuse it, you can probably find a ton of people who have taken the same life path as you before
xavier
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May 12, 2014, 05:02:39 AM
 #25

Inevitabley the markets will crash. They always do. Human psychology moves from fear to greed and then back.

Right now, the atmosphere seems to have a lot of fear. No end of articles talking about a correction or crash in the press. So I think we are still in the "fear" zone. As soon as people forget about crashes, we'll be back into greed area, and then the crash risk is imminent.

However, in the last 2 big market crashes, the US gov't has always been able to engineer a recovery using interest rates and money printing. The big worry now is that - if they don't get things back to normal before the pendulum swings - there will be no tools left to them when a crash occurs.

However, if they manage to hike rates without any big disasters, that could be avoided.

So goes the conventional theory. Basically, the economy has been in complete unchartered territory since 2009, so there's a lot of if's and could's. The best answer is that nobody knows how it will work out , just that it will be interesting to see either way how things go.
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May 12, 2014, 08:58:20 AM
 #26

The stock market may very well increase some more, but you could say that it is risky. Not in the calculated, insurance company sense, but more like the black swan event, that happens so seldom you can not calculate it. Anyway, if this happens, it is not safe to think that bitcoin price will take advantage of that. It could go down with the stock market. It depends on how the market understands bitcoin, as an investment akin to any other security, or as money. Currently the outsiders (which outnumber the current users), think it is an investment.

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May 12, 2014, 12:57:34 PM
 #27

My opinion is that stocks in general are fundamentally not an attractive investment right now. An exception might be resource (esp. precious metal) stocks.

That doesn't imply that a stock crash in a strict sense is looming. A scenario like the chart posted by BitDreams is possible. That would mean stocks being slowly devalued through inflation without a major price change on a nominal level.

I don't know what will happen, but I would not invest in the general market at the current valuation.

Crindon
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May 19, 2014, 06:23:13 AM
 #28

I don't think that the stock market will crash any time soon. It is a much larger market than in 1929 and there are too many support structures in place to prevent collapse. Even if it collapses it doesn't necessarily entail a major disruption in the economy.
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June 14, 2014, 11:25:45 PM
 #29

I don't think that the stock market will crash any time soon. It is a much larger market than in 1929 and there are too many support structures in place to prevent collapse. Even if it collapses it doesn't necessarily entail a major disruption in the economy.

It is very difficult to predict a stock crash. If this were possible then people would take advance of this information, buy put options the day before the cash and profit massively.
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