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Author Topic: Speculate....GO  (Read 3438 times)
GeniuSxBoY
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January 22, 2012, 08:45:56 AM
 #21

big dip ahead
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notme
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January 22, 2012, 08:54:05 AM
 #22

big dip ahead

sell, sell, sell!

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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bittenbob
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January 22, 2012, 08:56:22 AM
 #23

big dip ahead


Care to explain why you think this?

And by all means sell sell sell (It might jack up the price a bit).
GeniuSxBoY
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January 22, 2012, 09:19:38 AM
 #24

because nobody wants to buy of course and it's sunday.


sunday is funday
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January 22, 2012, 09:22:52 AM
 #25

because nobody wants to buy of course and it's sunday.


sunday is funday

I have heard of the weekend dip for a month or two now but have yet to observe it. Maybe this is something of bitcoin history? Of course if you are wrong then I will have to retract my statement.
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January 22, 2012, 07:05:37 PM
 #26

because nobody wants to buy of course and it's sunday.


sunday is funday

I have heard of the weekend dip for a month or two now but have yet to observe it. Maybe this is something of bitcoin history? Of course if you are wrong then I will have to retract my statement.

in the recent few months we had more weekend spikes than dips, the weekend dips indeed was a feature of past summer
this weekend is simply exhausted (as i was writing this there is a promising spike, not sure how strong it will be)
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January 22, 2012, 07:07:41 PM
 #27

because nobody wants to buy of course and it's sunday.


sunday is funday

I have heard of the weekend dip for a month or two now but have yet to observe it. Maybe this is something of bitcoin history? Of course if you are wrong then I will have to retract my statement.

in the recent few months we had more weekend spikes than dips, the weekend dips indeed was a feature of past summer
this weekend is simply exhausted (as i was writing this there is a promising spike, not sure how powerful it will be)

Wow it just keeps going up.
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January 22, 2012, 07:11:02 PM
 #28

because nobody wants to buy of course and it's sunday.


sunday is funday

I have heard of the weekend dip for a month or two now but have yet to observe it. Maybe this is something of bitcoin history? Of course if you are wrong then I will have to retract my statement.

in the recent few months we had more weekend spikes than dips, the weekend dips indeed was a feature of past summer
this weekend is simply exhausted (as i was writing this there is a promising spike, not sure how powerful it will be)

Wow it just keeps going up.

Now we will find out how big of a rally we can have when going long is starfished on Bitcoinica. Something tells me that we won't make it too far since people can only leverage down.
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January 22, 2012, 07:13:07 PM
 #29


Now we will find out how big of a rally we can have when going long is starfished on Bitcoinica. Something tells me that we won't make it too far since people can only leverage down.

if wall at 6.2 grows significantly, it will enable further continuation upwards, for now i wouldn't call it rally just yet)
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January 22, 2012, 07:18:15 PM
 #30

got to love the resistance  Cool
bittenbob
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January 22, 2012, 07:18:52 PM
 #31

The asterisk is gone from the buy on bitcoinica. This means we can resume normal activity and we can really go in any direction.

I spoke too soon it is back. It really seems like bitcoinica is helping to suppress the price at this point.
BadBear
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January 22, 2012, 07:23:33 PM
 #32

The asterisk is gone from the buy on bitcoinica. This means we can resume normal activity and we can really go in any direction.

I spoke too soon it is back. It really seems like bitcoinica is helping to suppress the price at this point.

Correlation =/= causation

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bittenbob
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January 22, 2012, 07:26:07 PM
 #33

I notice the 300BTC fake ask wall bot is back. Just watch if we approach those 2 walls they will vaporize.

If people can only put money to make the price go down on bitcoinica then it is directly suppressing the price.
sgbett
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January 22, 2012, 07:37:48 PM
 #34

The asterisk is gone from the buy on bitcoinica. This means we can resume normal activity and we can really go in any direction.

I spoke too soon it is back. It really seems like bitcoinica is helping to suppress the price at this point.

Bitcoinica can't suppress a price. Sufficient volume of people selling at a given ask is what prevents price rising. If people stopped selling then the price would go up.

If the buying volume needs leverage to support it, then that doesn't sound like a sustainable price. I sold my speculative position yesterday at $6.15 and put a bunch of new bids in lower.

Unlikely we'll get a carbon copy of last weeks antics, but you never know what might happen Wink

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January 22, 2012, 07:38:37 PM
 #35

if we break 6.5 we'll be on our way to 6.8
but we need greater support at 6.2 and 6.3 for that
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January 22, 2012, 07:39:47 PM
 #36

The asterisk is gone from the buy on bitcoinica. This means we can resume normal activity and we can really go in any direction.

I spoke too soon it is back. It really seems like bitcoinica is helping to suppress the price at this point.

Bitcoinica can't suppress a price. Sufficient volume of people selling at a given ask is what prevents price rising. If people stopped selling then the price would go up.
If the buying volume needs leverage to support it, then that doesn't sound like a sustainable price.

Bingo. 

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bittenbob
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January 22, 2012, 07:44:21 PM
 #37

The asterisk is gone from the buy on bitcoinica. This means we can resume normal activity and we can really go in any direction.

I spoke too soon it is back. It really seems like bitcoinica is helping to suppress the price at this point.

Bitcoinica can't suppress a price. Sufficient volume of people selling at a given ask is what prevents price rising. If people stopped selling then the price would go up.
If the buying volume needs leverage to support it, then that doesn't sound like a sustainable price.

Bingo. 

When you say this you forget that people are leveraged in a short and can continue to do so. Any leveraged position is unsustainable and that includes short ones.
sgbett
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January 22, 2012, 08:04:18 PM
 #38

I know there are probably people leveraged short, but not so many there is an asterisk on the sell side!

People seem under the impression the price *should* be something. The price only ever *is* something.

The marketplace is full of buyers and sellers, positions, bids asks etc if this was represented as an equation, then the price would simply be the number to the right of the equals sign

You can't predict the price, there are too many variables. You may be able to predict how the equation is changing though, and if you have some information (such as longs cannot obtain any more leverage) then you can extrapolate what the likely effects on the equation might be. You can then see how the price might be affected.

The price might go up, I'm more concerned with limiting my downside, and right now the conditions necessary for a long squeeze are once again present. I won't be right all the time. But when I am I avoid big losses.

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alan2here
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January 22, 2012, 08:04:54 PM
 #39

Thats a bold statment bittenbob about leveraged = unsustainable.
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January 22, 2012, 08:10:00 PM
 #40

long squeeze with so much support is a very serious undertaking, not sure even if the whale would be able to pull it off right now and how much sense would it make
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