Goomboo's Journal

[ErebusBat]

Since several people requested for 2H bars i'm going to add such option soon. As regards custom intervals, it shouldn't be hard to implement this, since the backend stores all history data from Mtgox.

This is great!  Do you have plans to add other exchanges like bitstamp or CampBX?  

Also do you have a thread just for this service?  I would love to follow it

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[pulsecat]

This is great!  Do you have plans to add other exchanges like bitstamp or CampBX?  

Also do you have a thread just for this service?  I would love to follow it

Yes, support for other exchanges in the works. Here is our thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=222696.0

[bitcoinarnold]

Managed to get a neg profit using Dates from 5/14 - Current. Only 30 some $ loss. In a rally it performs much better.

[MoreFun]

Managed to get a neg profit using Dates from 5/14 - Current. Only 30 some $ loss. In a rally it performs much better.

No way? It is "designed" to handle loss when falling and to go with you to da moooon... when rally.

[notme]

Daily Goomboos: Prepare your fiat!

Steady.... steady.... don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes.

Candle closed!  EMA10 > EMA21!  Fire! Fire! Fire!

[notme]

Candle closed!  EMA10 > EMA21!  Fire! Fire! Fire!

Where? You're 2 days too late

Daily Goomboos: Prepare your fiat!

Steady.... steady.... don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes.

Candle closed!  EMA10 > EMA21!  Fire! Fire! Fire!

[Voodah]

After, select a date range and trading frequency using the form located above the chart.
Then click 'Run' and watch the log.
Backtest results
http://cryptotrader.org/backtests/6mqAkbNGvqDSC8Dz8

Interestingly, almost all of the money is made during April's volatility. If you start the simulation in May, almost no profit is generated (less than $100 total) for the whole May, June and July periods.

Nice observation, but yeah, most insane profits are made during insane volatility.

[gandhibt]

Is there any alarm that trigger when EMAs cross? I haven't seen one yet. Like http://namcdn.com/btcalarm/, but this is triggered by price.

[Naruby]

Is there any alarm that trigger when EMAs cross? I haven't seen one yet. Like http://namcdn.com/btcalarm/, but this is triggered by price.

Have a look at the gekko trading bot : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=209149.0

[Kuroth]

Or the Butter Bot     In my Sig below..   It Emails you 2 times..  1 when the EMA's cross, 2 When the Trade is executed..

[gandhibt]

Thanks guys but I was just looking for a simple software/site that runs on a browser.

[idee2013]

Thanks guys but I was just looking for simple software/site that runs on browser.

+1 me too

[RyNinDaCleM]

Thanks guys but I was just looking for a simple software/site that runs on a browser.

Do you run SierraChart?
You can set alerts on data crosses with it

[gandhibt]

Thanks guys but I was just looking for a simple software/site that runs on a browser.

Do you run SierraChart?
You can set alerts on data crosses with it

Yeah I read that from this thread, but I'm still looking alternatives before I install any softwares on my laptop. I trade by hand on gox so I would just need a simple alarm.

[Goomboo]

For those of you who are new to the thread, welcome!

The purpose of this thread is profitable trading.   Many aspire to be traders, but fail to realize the work and effort necessary to succeed in this endeavor.  When you trade in the financial markets, you are going against the best traders in the world.  Your competition is those who have spent the vast majority of their lives dedicated to this profession.  Successful trading truly isn't for the casual participant.

Here's a post from 18 months ago that essentially embodies the intent of this thread.  The figures are old, but the message remains.  Develop a tested method and work towards flawless execution.

Welcome and I wish you the best,

Goomboo

A word of advice to those who want to be traders.

First off, let's establish - what is a trader?  A trader is someone who will buy or short with equal willingness.  If your objective is to profit from changing prices in the financial markets, you are a trader.  If you are holding onto the concept of bitcoin and believe in its future, you are an investor.

What is a trader's objective?  Profit.  He exists purely to profit from the financial markets and earn a return on his or his investors' capital.  This said, it is a trader's duty to seek out markets in which he can confidently exude a profitable edge which is both consistent and scalable.  At this point, I need to draw the harsh reality to the fact that bitcoin, at the moment, is not a scalable market.  You cannot earn even a moderate return on sizable sums of capital ($1m +).  

Since you are a trader, it is your duty to spend most of your work and energy in markets in which you can earn a return.  This is why I prefer the "real" currency markets.  In a given day, maybe $2,000,000 trades in the bitcoin markets.  In the currency market, a single currency pair - EUR/USD - millions trade every minute.  If your objective is scalabe profit, this is the type of market you should be involved in.

You will hear many voices about technical analysis - "it works", "it's snake-oil" - these comments are just opinions.  The facts about technical analysis is that it is a tool, nothing more, nothing less.  Technical analysis can be used to generate profits in the markets if you know how to implement and use it.  Just like any other tool, if you haven't spent the time to learn how to use it, technical analysis can lead to lots of pain and blame.

I believe that technical analysis is an effective method for extracting profits from the financial markets.  I do not base this opinion on what a book, a person, or a forum says.  I base this solely on the fact that I have spent thousands of hours testing thousands of ideas across nearly every traded asset class and I have found that with dedication, persistence, and effort an edge can be created.

Here is my tangible advice on how you can learn to be a trader:

1.  Develop a system
--Learn about technical analysis until you have a conceptual framework of when to participate in market action
--When will you enter the markets?
--How much money will you risk per trade?  Is this scalable and dynamic?
--When will you exit the markets?  Both profitable exit and unprofitable exit.
--What hours of the day will you trade?

2.  Backtest the system
--You must acquire or create some method of exploring if your system worked in the past.
--My suggestion is a demo feed connected to NinjaTrader and MB Trading.  When you open a chart in NinjaTrader, you can click the arrow keys to move a candle onto and off the chart allowing you to see the price action as though it is happening live.
--Drag a chart of historical prices one candle at a time, recording your trades as though you actually were taking them in a spreadsheet.  Chart your profit and loss.  Analyze, scrutinize, and try to disprove your edge.
--I suggest you do this for 200-400 trades across as much data as you can get your hands on.

3.  Forward test the system
--Once you have confidence that your strategy worked in the past, you must ensure that it works in the future.
--Open a demo account and trade fake money for at least two months to prove that your edge still exists

4. Live trade the system
--Start with tiny amounts of money and adhere to your system perfectly.  The amount of capital at risk should be so small that if you lost it all, you wouldn't be financially disadvantaged.
--If you can continue to make profit for at least 30-50 more trades, you should be able to gradually add more and more capital to your system.


Of course this isn't easy and more than likely the majority of people won't do it.  My purpose in saying this is just to let you know that this is what it takes if you wish to have a sustainable edge in the market.

[Kuroth]

Goomboo..  Did you see my question on Page 40?    Was hoping you could give me some advise..   PM me if you don't feel you want to post it in this thread  I don't want to derail this thread..


  Thanks!

[notme]

Daily Goomboos: Prepare your fiat!

Steady.... steady.... don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes.

Candle closed!  EMA10 > EMA21!  Fire! Fire! Fire!

Retreat!

[gandhibt]

Do you have nice documented data about backtesting EMA-systems on example EUR/USD forex? I tried to find from google, but it turns out it is not so simple and it came to my mind that maybe you have good documents about the backtests.

I have here a backtest from 2h 7/20 EMA-system from 2012-1-1 to 2013-7-15:



Problem is that BTC balance is dropping to 42,5 BTC from the 100 BTC start before it starts to rise with 2013 bubble. How can you tell that market from now on is volatile as in 2013 and not steady like in 2012?

- Trading fee is 0.46% (killing!)
- Trading price is closing price to candle where crossover is happened, like pic below

[nii236]

Why don't you use the backtesting online software that was discussed just a few posts ago (http://cryptotrader.org/)?

If you're not happy with failed trades, then maybe look into adding a threshold after the cross before trading or use a longer sample size instead of two hours.

[Goomboo]

Goomboo..  Did you see my question on Page 40?    Was hoping you could give me some advise..   PM me if you don't feel you want to post it in this thread  I don't want to derail this thread..


  Thanks!

Sorry, I totally missed it!  Here are my thoughts:

Anyway not to get off subject but I have had an interest in the Forex market for some time but always hatted the SPAM forex Emails I use to get tons of and always heard the Forex market is a REALLY hard market to make any money off of and that most of the ones making money were the ones spamming us and selling their expensive ForEx products..  (This is one thing I could never understand when it comes to any kind of investing..  Why would someone that has such a great method or system want to sell it instead of just using their method?  Always made me wonder was their method that cost $4,000 really that great..  I know some are legit but this always struck me as odd and probably why I never bought into any of these seminars or products they were selling)

The financial world is full of snakes and snake-oil salesmen.  The retail Forex market, even more so.  The vast majority of currency traders consistently lose money:

http://forexmagnates.com/exclusive-q2-2013-us-forex-profitability-report-35-of-retail-clients-gain/

I have periodically glanced at this report ever since the NFA required retail foreign exchange brokers to publish their profitability figures and it has been a fairly consistent trend: 80% of all traders lose money every single quarter.  For this reason, you are wise to realize that the vast majority of signal providers/Forex spam emails are absolute lies.

Could you maybe suggest where someone like me could get started in learning about Forex?   Any good complete beginner books you recommend?   That baby Pips sight looks interesting.  Should I just start there?

As you said, Baby Pips is solid for every beginner in FX: http://www.babypips.com/school/


My suggestion is to spend your time learning about the principles of trading rather than focusing exclusively on the Forex markets.  After all, if you learn to manage risk and identify good trading opportunities, you can transfer these skills to any market/risk-based endeavor you enter.  On that note, here is a list of resources I've found to be helpful.

A list of books I've found to be very good:

Discretionary trading
Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes
High Probability Trading
Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians

Systematic Trading
Trading Systems: A New Approach to System Development and Portfolio Optimisation
Trading Systems that Work

Psychology of Trading
The Psychology of Trading: Tools and Techniques for Minding the Markets
Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline and a Winning Attitude

All-Time Classics
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds
Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders
The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America's Top Traders

Investing
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel
Rule #1: The Simple Strategy for Successful Investing in Only 15 Minutes a Week!


I really wish someone had handed me this reading list years ago - I think it would have taken years off of my learning curve.

Now, as to this question:

I am assuming you can apply this same EMA strategy outlined in this thread to the Forex market?

In general, hourly moving average crossover systems are not profitable outside of BTC.  The extreme volatility and relative infancy of the market allows aggressive trend following methods to profit.  

Here's a backtest of the 10/21 crossover on EUR/USD hourly since the beginning of the year.





Daily crossovers are still profitable, however.  But you must be willing and able to stomach periods drawdown.  For example, if you traded the 10/21 crossover, you would not have earned a profit between 2004 and 2006.