oda.krell
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
|
|
September 13, 2013, 04:49:44 PM |
|
Oda, in your experience, how have 18/45 hourly held up? In my experience it's one of the most profitable, especially on BTCe.
I never tested anything on BTCe, but for mtgox: I'm assuming 1% fee. Without treshold, poorly (minus 3%, on my May to August data). With -0.2/0.2 treshold, pretty good, +30%. But lots of trade signals (25). Too much for my taste, I guess.
|
Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure. Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
|
|
|
TradesLikeAPotato
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 41
Merit: 0
|
|
September 14, 2013, 04:44:44 PM |
|
Oda, in your experience, how have 18/45 hourly held up? In my experience it's one of the most profitable, especially on BTCe.
I never tested anything on BTCe, but for mtgox: I'm assuming 1% fee. Without treshold, poorly (minus 3%, on my May to August data). With -0.2/0.2 treshold, pretty good, +30%. But lots of trade signals (25). Too much for my taste, I guess. Thanks.
|
|
|
|
Raffles
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 10
Merit: 0
|
|
September 17, 2013, 02:30:07 PM |
|
|
|
|
|
S3052
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
|
|
September 17, 2013, 05:25:40 PM |
|
Thanks This article is a great analysis
|
|
|
|
pacojones
|
|
September 30, 2013, 01:36:27 AM |
|
Hi all, Goomboo here!
...... I trade a 10 and 21 exponential moving average crossover. When the 10 crosses over the 21, I buy. When the 10 crosses under the 21, I sell or sell short. ........
AHHHH - THANK YOU - I've been trying to figure out this strategy and these 3 sentences answered my question - something I've been trying to answer for 2 days!
|
|
|
|
Goomboo (OP)
|
|
September 30, 2013, 11:46:02 PM |
|
AHHHH - THANK YOU - I've been trying to figure out this strategy and these 3 sentences answered my question - something I've been trying to answer for 2 days!
Definitely, glad to hear that it has 'clicked'. Best of luck with your trading
|
|
|
|
Goomboo (OP)
|
|
September 30, 2013, 11:47:47 PM |
|
We're 9 days into a trend and daily traders are sitting on an unrealized profit of around 10.5%. As always, these profits should be viewed with skepticism in that price erosion is entirely possible.
The trend has continued its march upwards. Unrealized profit is around 48% on open positions. As always, be skeptical of profits - "The trend is your friend until the bend at the end".
|
|
|
|
Vagnavs
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1121
Merit: 1003
|
|
October 02, 2013, 11:34:39 PM |
|
is it just me or the program is not working? One thing I notice the charts aren't displaying at bitcoins charts. At least for me anyhow screenshot: http://screencast.com/t/kfPhjAAHNc
|
Avalanche is a must own
|
|
|
Rampion
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
|
|
October 02, 2013, 11:41:06 PM |
|
is it just me or the program is not working? One thing I notice the charts aren't displaying at bitcoins charts. At least for me anyhow
I guess that SR (the very "Bitcoin killer app") being raided by the feds screws up pretty much everything in the Bitcoin ecosystem... Including TA, EMA crossovers and such
|
|
|
|
oda.krell
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
|
|
October 07, 2013, 01:20:53 PM |
|
is it just me or the program is not working? One thing I notice the charts aren't displaying at bitcoins charts. At least for me anyhow
I guess that SR (the very "Bitcoin killer app") being raided by the feds screws up pretty much everything in the Bitcoin ecosystem... Including TA, EMA crossovers and such :D There's actually an easy solution to that: just don't trade while that's the case :D I know this will sound a bit dumb, but that principle (trade if you're certain, don't trade otherwise) never occured to me until lucif/masterluc mentioned it at some point. Sure, the problem then becomes "how do you know if you're certain or not), but for example right now, I wouldn't use the crossover signals from a daily method, because they're almost certainly going to be lagging behind.
|
Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure. Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
|
|
|
tickets
Member
Offline
Activity: 85
Merit: 10
|
|
October 10, 2013, 05:00:42 PM |
|
So can we get updates each time you make trade as to what the actual price etc was? As I read it, looks like there was a SELL signal on Oct 2-3 around 125 for about 25% profit, then another buy signal yesterday at about 141 -- is that correct?? MACD is also crossing up which would add confidence for me... http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg90za1gEMAzm1g10za2gEMAzm2g21zxzi1gMACDzl
|
|
|
|
Goomboo (OP)
|
|
October 14, 2013, 10:04:50 PM |
|
So can we get updates each time you make trade as to what the actual price etc was?
Sorry, I'm not a signal service. As I read it, looks like there was a SELL signal on Oct 2-3 around 125 for about 25% profit, then another buy signal yesterday at about 141 -- is that correct??
Edit: The first part of your sentence it correct - you exited in that time frame. There was a one day sell signal which resulted in an 8% loss (assuming you went short - I'm long only) immediately following the closed trade. And correct, there was another buy signal generated a few days ago. Goomboo
|
|
|
|
termhn
|
|
October 22, 2013, 07:55:40 PM |
|
|
|
|
|
Goomboo (OP)
|
|
October 28, 2013, 10:29:49 PM |
|
And correct, there was another buy signal generated a few days ago.
Daily traders should be sitting on an unrealized profit of around 51% or $70 per coin. As always: be skeptical of unrealized profits.
|
|
|
|
lucas.sev
|
|
October 29, 2013, 05:29:06 PM |
|
Daily traders should be sitting on an unrealized profit of around 51% or $70 per coin. As always: be skeptical of unrealized profits.
Hi Goomboo Thank you for the topic, it is very informative. I was wondering, what do you mean by 'be skeptical of unrealized profits'? Should I understand it as 'be weary of daily traders going into profit taking mode'? Or something else?
|
|
|
|
Ozymandias
|
|
October 29, 2013, 05:43:50 PM |
|
Daily traders should be sitting on an unrealized profit of around 51% or $70 per coin. As always: be skeptical of unrealized profits.
Hi Goomboo Thank you for the topic, it is very informative. I was wondering, what do you mean by 'be skeptical of unrealized profits'? Should I understand it as 'be weary of daily traders going into profit taking mode'? Or something else? Basically, it's not a profit until you've sold and the fiat is in your pocket
|
|
|
|
notme
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
|
|
October 29, 2013, 05:50:51 PM |
|
Daily traders should be sitting on an unrealized profit of around 51% or $70 per coin. As always: be skeptical of unrealized profits.
Hi Goomboo Thank you for the topic, it is very informative. I was wondering, what do you mean by 'be skeptical of unrealized profits'? Should I understand it as 'be weary of daily traders going into profit taking mode'? Or something else? Basically, it's not a profit until you've sold and the fiat is in your pocket Right. Goomboo approaches trading from the viewpoint of investing USD for USD profits. This gives him good profit over the long term, with lower risk than those investing for BTC profits. Those traders are essentially compounding their profits, which can grow you investment capital, but from the USD prospective, those gains are at risk.
|
|
|
|
Goomboo (OP)
|
|
October 29, 2013, 10:11:08 PM |
|
Thank you for the topic, it is very informative. I was wondering, what do you mean by 'be skeptical of unrealized profits'? Should I understand it as 'be weary of daily traders going into profit taking mode'? Or something else?
Below said it great: Basically, it's not a profit until you've sold and the fiat is in your pocket
It's just a reminder to keep a clear head when the markets appear to be going crazy and avoid greed.
|
|
|
|
xybersurfer
Member
Offline
Activity: 72
Merit: 10
|
|
November 09, 2013, 03:57:06 PM |
|
Optimization and the 10 & 21 moving average crossover systemIn order to determine the robustness of our trading system, I have decided to see how our parameters hold up when they are varied. To accomplish this, I used NinjaTrader to do an optimization of a variety of periods for our moving averages and I have graphically shown the results below. This type of analysis shows us very important information - regions of profitability. For nearly every technical indicator, there are parameters which you input (such as 10 and 21 in the moving averages), which determine how much data it uses in calculating values. If you have a trading system which only works with a certain combination of parameters, this is a curve-fit system, or a system which will probably not hold up well in the future. In order to insure robustness, or its ability to hold up in the future, a system must be rigorously tested across a variety of markets and a variety of settings. In the chart below, you will see 620 moving average combinations with their respective profitability. It is important to note that the data has been normalized, so the number you see is meaningless - it is just a comparison to all of the other data points. Additionally, it is very important not to look for the best value, but rather look for a region of profitability. Markets change over time and the best results today probably will not be the best results tomorrow. This said, it is important to try and place yourself in the region in which you will more than likely be able to survive and profit in the future. -Red = below average -Yellow = average -Green = above average The image above powerfully demonstrates the use of a simple technical trading concept applied to the markets. When you are creating a trading system, you must question where the inputs came from. Why did I choose 10 for my short moving average? Why is 21 a good moving average length? In order to protect your money, you must begin asking "why" to the decisions you make. I suggest that you critically analyze, quantify, and backtest every aspect of your decision making so that you can behave in a consistent, confident, and disciplined manner as you trade in the markets. this seems really useful. the region at the top is obviously the largest/greenest (probably the most robust compared to the other regions). - but what makes it robust? - what if the largest region was a single square?
|
|
|
|
velacreations
|
|
November 12, 2013, 01:35:29 AM |
|
do you have a performance report for your method? like last 6 months or year?
|
|
|
|
|