wait isnt this the mining speculation forum?
shouldnt you all have some rough idea of how much a 1 GH miner would cost to operate and produce in profit? and then derive the expected present value of the risk adjusted income stream?
it has nothing to do with what I propose. c'mon someone has to know??
Well, you started your thread with a poll asking "Would you buy a token that represents a managed service of hosted BTC Miners?" and I answered that Yes, but it depends by some factors. Are you sure it has nothing to do with what you propose?
Anyway, going more straight to your question "How much would you pay for 1 gigahash?", let's put some raw data into a mining calculator such as mining.thegenesisblock.com and see what happens.
Considering it is a managed mining service, I need to fill only the Cost of Hardware field and I can zero the following params:
- Power Use
- Shipping Costs
- Misc Costs
- Pool Fee
- Electricity Costs
Let's use 1TH instead of 1GH to improve the readability and also use only BTC to eliminate any BTC/USD change speculation.
Then, to answer your question, we have to define two major things: expected break-even point and expected monthly difficulty increase (only the latter has its own input field on the calculator). Of course small changes in these two input params would result in way different output. I think that defining these two params is not easy at all and it involves speculations, knowledge, personal convinciments and also some luck. I was mostly referring to them when I wrote "I can't answer without involving more research".
So when we want to reach break-even in our simulation? What about 6 months (180 days)? Is it fair enough? (not to me, considering how fast things can change in BTC world, I would like to have a shorter period, that can be obtained, in this case, only with a lower buying cost or a lower difficulty increase).
And what about monthly difficulty increase? Well, put in your own values, I really don't want to speculate on this endless matter. But just for a test purpose, what about a 30% as average monthly increase for the next months? The calculator shows 45% as monthly Historical Difficulty Increase, but let's insert 30%.
Well, all that considered, I can obtain the 180 day break-even when I fill the Cost of Hardware field with 5.8 or 5.9 BTC (for 1TH).
So to answer your question with some raw numbers, I would say 0.0058BTC for GH.
(I mean I would start to consider your offer if it's lower or equal to 0.0058BTC for GH)
Poll
