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Author Topic: Starting to sense pessimism...  (Read 4996 times)
StewartJ
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January 25, 2012, 10:02:12 PM
 #21

If I can just hold out until we get to "Despair" for the imminent rally...

Back to...$5?

If we managed to hit $5, it just might go well into the $4's. The depth is pretty thin below $5.

No point in over-thinking it.

Last week we bumped down 50 cents then traded sideways forever at $6.30.

Looks like were just repeating, down 50 cents. Trading sideways this time at ... what? $5.70, $5.80?

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January 26, 2012, 05:34:38 PM
 #22

Drifting, drifting... how about now... pessimism now....??

Orders all the way down baby, they are filling nicely... The deeper we go the bigger the order!

I have already told myself I will not panic however low it goes. My lowest order is around 14 cents a coin. I doubt it will go that low but who knows!


Still long term bullish, just patiently accumulating on dips...

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January 26, 2012, 05:42:42 PM
 #23

Drifting, drifting... how about now... pessimism now....??

Orders all the way down baby, they are filling nicely... The deeper we go the bigger the order!

I have already told myself I will not panic however low it goes. My lowest order is around 14 cents a coin. I doubt it will go that low but who knows!


Still long term bullish, just patiently accumulating on dips...


At 14 cents.. the game is over..

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sgbett
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January 26, 2012, 05:45:46 PM
 #24

At 14 cents, everyone will indeed think its over. I think it probably will be. If it is, I lose money that I have already written off. If it isn't I have bagged a truckload of coin ready for round 2!

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January 26, 2012, 05:51:03 PM
 #25

I think we're going into the $4 range, which was my guess a week or so ago.  However, at the time I thought we'd strongly rebound from there, and now I doubt that.
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January 26, 2012, 05:54:08 PM
 #26

Poof.

1Kz25jm6pjNTaz8bFezEYUeBYfEtpjuKRG | PGP: B5797C4F

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January 26, 2012, 05:54:57 PM
 #27

Grab a sandwich and a drink for the ride down! lmao

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January 26, 2012, 05:57:10 PM
 #28

I think we're going into the $4 range, which was my guess a week or so ago.  However, at the time I thought we'd strongly rebound from there, and now I doubt that.

I still think we are on a long downtrend, and we'll re-test the ~2.20 bottom before we go back up. I don't expect any of my orders belew $2 to get filled, if they do its a bonus (or good money after bad!) hehe.

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Full Node: http://46.51.193.129 (BU)
"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
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January 26, 2012, 06:00:50 PM
 #29

I think we're going into the $4 range, which was my guess a week or so ago.  However, at the time I thought we'd strongly rebound from there, and now I doubt that.

I still think we are on a long downtrend, and we'll re-test the ~2.20 bottom before we go back up. I don't expect any of my orders belew $2 to get filled, if they do its a bonus (or good money after bad!) hehe.

Ugh, it makes me sick to think we're going to test those levels again.  With more bitcoins for sale on the orderbook than before, I'd be worried the price wouldn't rebound and even more people would feel the same and abandon ship.  I feel like the project was just beginning to get some credibility back and if that happens...well, it won't be good for bitcoin.  We speculators are ruining this project.  I'm a part of that, as much as I hate to admit it.
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January 26, 2012, 06:08:14 PM
 #30

I think we're going into the $4 range, which was my guess a week or so ago.  However, at the time I thought we'd strongly rebound from there, and now I doubt that.

I still think we are on a long downtrend, and we'll re-test the ~2.20 bottom before we go back up. I don't expect any of my orders belew $2 to get filled, if they do its a bonus (or good money after bad!) hehe.

Ugh, it makes me sick to think we're going to test those levels again.  With more bitcoins for sale on the orderbook than before, I'd be worried the price wouldn't rebound and even more people would feel the same and abandon ship.  I feel like the project was just beginning to get some credibility back and if that happens...well, it won't be good for bitcoin.  We speculators are ruining this project.  I'm a part of that, as much as I hate to admit it.

Conversely, if bitcoin is seen to have survived the effects of rampant speculation, that would be a big plus.
StewartJ
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January 26, 2012, 06:14:02 PM
 #31

I think we're going into the $4 range, which was my guess a week or so ago.  However, at the time I thought we'd strongly rebound from there, and now I doubt that.

I was thinking it might stabilize at $4.5 - $4.80, (Jan 4th trading range)



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January 26, 2012, 06:17:09 PM
 #32

I think we're going into the $4 range, which was my guess a week or so ago.  However, at the time I thought we'd strongly rebound from there, and now I doubt that.

I still think we are on a long downtrend, and we'll re-test the ~2.20 bottom before we go back up. I don't expect any of my orders belew $2 to get filled, if they do its a bonus (or good money after bad!) hehe.

Ugh, it makes me sick to think we're going to test those levels again.  With more bitcoins for sale on the orderbook than before, I'd be worried the price wouldn't rebound and even more people would feel the same and abandon ship.  I feel like the project was just beginning to get some credibility back and if that happens...well, it won't be good for bitcoin.  We speculators are ruining this project.  I'm a part of that, as much as I hate to admit it.
The dips aren't what is killing the credibility, it the stupid rallies! (alhough they are kind of fun!)

High time we had a chart with arbitrary line...



If growth proceeded in a steady fashion then *that* would be credible, but the whole crowd keeps piling in and then subsequently losing there shirt.

Really the 'actual' line could be anywhere I just picked one for effect, but the point is that the price shouldn't be fluctuating so wildly around it. If it didn't keep taking off so wildly then it wouldn't have to keep correcting.

This is nothing new though, look at any equity chart of a steadily growing company and you see the gyrations of human craziness messing with what should be a fairly smooth increase in valuation.

http://haschinabannedbitcoin.com
Full Node: http://46.51.193.129 (BU)
"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
proudhon
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January 26, 2012, 06:19:44 PM
 #33

I think we're going into the $4 range, which was my guess a week or so ago.  However, at the time I thought we'd strongly rebound from there, and now I doubt that.

I still think we are on a long downtrend, and we'll re-test the ~2.20 bottom before we go back up. I don't expect any of my orders belew $2 to get filled, if they do its a bonus (or good money after bad!) hehe.

Ugh, it makes me sick to think we're going to test those levels again.  With more bitcoins for sale on the orderbook than before, I'd be worried the price wouldn't rebound and even more people would feel the same and abandon ship.  I feel like the project was just beginning to get some credibility back and if that happens...well, it won't be good for bitcoin.  We speculators are ruining this project.  I'm a part of that, as much as I hate to admit it.

Conversely, if bitcoin is seen to have survived the effects of rampant speculation, that would be a big plus.

Sure.  But that it will survive isn't a foregone conclusion.  The project needs a killer app.  Without one, there's no reason for wider adoption and, thus, no reason for the price to increase and stabilize.  This goes back to the chicken egg problem.  Why should more people adopt bitcoin besides people interested in speculation (the vast majority of the population isn't going to sit around and watch the price, or code a bot, or use bitcoinica for stop and limit orders)?  And, why should merchants more fully support bitcoin without wider adoption?  
StewartJ
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January 26, 2012, 06:22:11 PM
 #34

Drifting, drifting... how about now... pessimism now....??

Orders all the way down baby, they are filling nicely... The deeper we go the bigger the order!

I have already told myself I will not panic however low it goes. My lowest order is around 14 cents a coin. I doubt it will go that low but who knows!


Still long term bullish, just patiently accumulating on dips...


So you're cost-averaging your way to cheap bitcoins... where is the point of no return?
proudhon
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January 26, 2012, 06:25:42 PM
 #35

I think we're going into the $4 range, which was my guess a week or so ago.  However, at the time I thought we'd strongly rebound from there, and now I doubt that.

I still think we are on a long downtrend, and we'll re-test the ~2.20 bottom before we go back up. I don't expect any of my orders belew $2 to get filled, if they do its a bonus (or good money after bad!) hehe.

Ugh, it makes me sick to think we're going to test those levels again.  With more bitcoins for sale on the orderbook than before, I'd be worried the price wouldn't rebound and even more people would feel the same and abandon ship.  I feel like the project was just beginning to get some credibility back and if that happens...well, it won't be good for bitcoin.  We speculators are ruining this project.  I'm a part of that, as much as I hate to admit it.
The dips aren't what is killing the credibility, it the stupid rallies! (alhough they are kind of fun!)

High time we had a chart with arbitrary line...



If growth proceeded in a steady fashion then *that* would be credible, but the whole crowd keeps piling in and then subsequently losing there shirt.

Really the 'actual' line could be anywhere I just picked one for effect, but the point is that the price shouldn't be fluctuating so wildly around it. If it didn't keep taking off so wildly then it wouldn't have to keep correcting.

This is nothing new though, look at any equity chart of a steadily growing company and you see the gyrations of human craziness messing with what should be a fairly smooth increase in valuation.

I agree with you.  The run up to $32 is the most damaging thing to have happened to the project.
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January 26, 2012, 06:39:56 PM
 #36



The long term uptrend (green line) is still intact with room to spare. With the red line at the 7.20-7.22 tops, it is possible to interpret this as a huge ascending triangle. Do you think a breakout might lead to a huge rally? I'm not sure. Let's just hope the uptrend holds Smiley

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January 26, 2012, 07:16:07 PM
 #37

Drifting, drifting... how about now... pessimism now....??

Orders all the way down baby, they are filling nicely... The deeper we go the bigger the order!

I have already told myself I will not panic however low it goes. My lowest order is around 14 cents a coin. I doubt it will go that low but who knows!


Still long term bullish, just patiently accumulating on dips...


So you're cost-averaging your way to cheap bitcoins... where is the point of no return?

When I run out of (play) money, are the whole of bitcoin fades to dust. If you are buying BTC with money you can't afford to lose then you are doing it wrong! (imho)

I am still hoping for thousands per coin Wink ( a guy can dream eh).

Knoing my luck I'll get it but it will be largely due to hyperinflation on the USD heheh.

http://haschinabannedbitcoin.com
Full Node: http://46.51.193.129 (BU)
"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
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January 26, 2012, 07:24:36 PM
 #38

At 14 cents, everyone will indeed think its over. I think it probably will be. If it is, I lose money that I have already written off. If it isn't I have bagged a truckload of coin ready for round 2!

+1

Very close to my situation and philosophy.  I've (hopefully) got some money at my exchange which was earmarked for some more buying in the sub-$2.00 range, but that did not happen last time.  It looks like such a PITA to pull out that I've written it off as well as what I've already put into BTC.  I'll happily deploy it if we take another deep dive though.

I am 'pessimistic' that we'll get another dive which would bring the price down to where I want to see it.  This, in part, because the point when the production rate gets cut in half is starting to become visible on the horizon.


StewartJ
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January 26, 2012, 07:28:57 PM
 #39

Drifting, drifting... how about now... pessimism now....??

Orders all the way down baby, they are filling nicely... The deeper we go the bigger the order!

I have already told myself I will not panic however low it goes. My lowest order is around 14 cents a coin. I doubt it will go that low but who knows!


Still long term bullish, just patiently accumulating on dips...


So you're cost-averaging your way to cheap bitcoins... where is the point of no return?

When I run out of (play) money, are the whole of bitcoin fades to dust. If you are buying BTC with money you can't afford to lose then you are doing it wrong! (imho)

I am still hoping for thousands per coin Wink ( a guy can dream eh).

Knoing my luck I'll get it but it will be largely due to hyperinflation on the USD heheh.

yeah, it's all play money here for me too. If bitcoin ever got down to $2 again,I would buy a thousand for shits and giggles.
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January 27, 2012, 12:22:02 AM
 #40

I think we're going into the $4 range, which was my guess a week or so ago.  However, at the time I thought we'd strongly rebound from there, and now I doubt that.

I still think we are on a long downtrend, and we'll re-test the ~2.20 bottom before we go back up. I don't expect any of my orders belew $2 to get filled, if they do its a bonus (or good money after bad!) hehe.

Ugh, it makes me sick to think we're going to test those levels again.  With more bitcoins for sale on the orderbook than before, I'd be worried the price wouldn't rebound and even more people would feel the same and abandon ship.  I feel like the project was just beginning to get some credibility back and if that happens...well, it won't be good for bitcoin.  We speculators are ruining this project.  I'm a part of that, as much as I hate to admit it.

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