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Author Topic: Block Reward changing to 25 BTC in November-December 2012  (Read 13964 times)
RoadTrain
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May 08, 2014, 08:13:00 PM
 #81

Actually it's interesting that previous halving coincided with a price bump that eventually leaded to an April bubble.

Is it a mere coincidence? A reason or an excuse for a bubble? Wink

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May 08, 2014, 09:11:22 PM
 #82

Actually it's interesting that previous halving coincided with a price bump that eventually leaded to an April bubble.

Is it a mere coincidence? A reason or an excuse for a bubble? Wink

Definitely just a reason to bubble.
This was public knowledge and should have been well priced in long before we got to it. The next halving is a ways away, so it has little influence over price as of yet, but it will eventually cause a boom as long as Bitcoin doesn't die first.
NO, I'm not saying Bitcoin is doomed, just that a lot can happen in 2 years so you don't know.
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May 09, 2014, 03:14:22 PM
 #83

Halving in August 2016 if things keep going the way they are.

120,000 more blocks or so to go.

It will be here before we know it.
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May 10, 2014, 02:17:29 PM
 #84

Halving in August 2016 if things keep going the way they are.

120,000 more blocks or so to go.

It will be here before we know it.

Current estimate is August but, depending on the increasing of hashing, it could be July (even the end of June).

When the pricing of the next halving will start to creep in the price we will start to see the real fireworks.
The current inflation rates of USD and BTC are in favor of USD (6% year inflation against 11% year inflation for BTC) and the price is driven by adoption (more users, more uses, better features).
When the BR drop to 12.5 BTC/block, the internal inflation rate of the BTC will be around 4.5% (and surely no more than 5.5% as the hashing would need to increase 20% every 12 days).

My understanding of economics and politics tell me the Fed and other Central Banks (CBs) like the ECB, BoJ, BoC can not reduce the printing of new currency under the 6% year (and probably can not go under 10% for  an extended time period). If they do so, they get an economic implosion by bank's defaults and massive deflationary depression. No politician and no central banker will want this under his watch, so they will delay it knowing they will no pay the cost of delaying the resolution of the crisis.

As we see increasing inflation in the monetary mass and credit deflation, bitcoin will become increasingly appetible to economic actors.
When Bitcoin will be inflating slower than USD, its exchange rate will soar continuously as people exchange increasing quantity of USD for BTC and give back their USD to banks to pay back their debts with a devaluing currency.
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May 11, 2014, 06:28:06 AM
 #85

Actually it's interesting that previous halving coincided with a price bump that eventually leaded to an April bubble.

Is it a mere coincidence? A reason or an excuse for a bubble? Wink

I am convinced mining puts a lot of downward pressure on bitcoin prices. I think most have to sell what they mine to cover costs.

So when the block reward halved, the downward pressure was cut in half.

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May 11, 2014, 04:22:02 PM
 #86

Actually it's interesting that previous halving coincided with a price bump that eventually leaded to an April bubble.

Is it a mere coincidence? A reason or an excuse for a bubble? Wink

I am convinced mining puts a lot of downward pressure on bitcoin prices. I think most have to sell what they mine to cover costs.

So when the block reward halved, the downward pressure was cut in half.

There is an argument that all mined coins are sold: every mined coin must fulfil someone's demand, be it a buyer or the miner itself. So even miners who keep the coins are buying less than they otherwise would have—the mined coins are being sold to themselves.

This means that every mined coin either increases the supply (by sale on the market) or reduces the demand (by fulfilling the miner's own demand). So the amount of coins mined is a big deal! The question then becomes, has the market priced all this in?
mikerbiker6
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May 12, 2014, 09:31:53 AM
 #87

Actually it's interesting that previous halving coincided with a price bump that eventually leaded to an April bubble.

Is it a mere coincidence? A reason or an excuse for a bubble? Wink

I am convinced mining puts a lot of downward pressure on bitcoin prices. I think most have to sell what they mine to cover costs.

So when the block reward halved, the downward pressure was cut in half.

There is an argument that all mined coins are sold: every mined coin must fulfil someone's demand, be it a buyer or the miner itself. So even miners who keep the coins are buying less than they otherwise would have—the mined coins are being sold to themselves.

This means that every mined coin either increases the supply (by sale on the market) or reduces the demand (by fulfilling the miner's own demand). So the amount of coins mined is a big deal! The question then becomes, has the market priced all this in?
What do you mean by, 'has the market priced all this in'.

Quote
I am convinced mining puts a lot of downward pressure on bitcoin prices. I think most have to sell what they mine to cover costs.

So when the block reward halved, the downward pressure was cut in half.
agreed

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May 23, 2014, 11:55:04 AM
 #88

what is the exact date for the next change of block rewards?
I know it is in (late?) 2016, but would like to know the exact date.

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May 23, 2014, 12:11:03 PM
 #89

what is the exact date for the next change of block rewards?
I know it is in (late?) 2016, but would like to know the exact date.



There is no exact date. But look up at what block it happens and then divide by the recent averaged block time (lets say over a couple of months). If the hashrate maintains the rate of increase then the date that you get will be close to the actual date.
 
21pilot
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May 23, 2014, 12:26:37 PM
 #90

what is the exact date for the next change of block rewards?
I know it is in (late?) 2016, but would like to know the exact date.



There is no exact date. But look up at what block it happens and then divide by the recent averaged block time (lets say over a couple of months). If the hashrate maintains the rate of increase then the date that you get will be close to the actual date.
 

where do I find the information at what block number the decrease should happen? thank you anyways for your help
bitcoinsrus
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May 23, 2014, 02:28:15 PM
 #91

what is the exact date for the next change of block rewards?
I know it is in (late?) 2016, but would like to know the exact date.



There is no exact date. But look up at what block it happens and then divide by the recent averaged block time (lets say over a couple of months). If the hashrate maintains the rate of increase then the date that you get will be close to the actual date.
 

where do I find the information at what block number the decrease should happen? thank you anyways for your help

http://bitcoinclock.com/
Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-18 03:57:50 UTC (116 weeks, 5 days, 17 hours 30 min) from now
<2.24 years from this moment reward halves
tuneman1980
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May 23, 2014, 02:36:39 PM
 #92

I'm eagerly counting down to the block reward halving with http://cryptocoinstats.com/supplytracker.php?s=tt

LTC: 1 year, 3 months, 7 days, 21 hours, and 43 minutes    
BTC: 2 years, 2 months, 25 days, 17 hours, and 30 minutes

I anticipate large price increases like there was with Bitcoin.

http://cryptocoinstats.com/

BTC: 19YQqtEdtuWhT6nk6ArBgMTiKMEjoJ5eww  LTC: Li1RLpZm8Rx7txSnQdvZvtLMsd4XDN2vMJ  FTC: 6qAU4vtyf9LPW4yV4m4Vx1jm4ZkXJHTFP7
21pilot
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May 23, 2014, 04:19:46 PM
 #93



I anticipate large price increases like there was with Bitcoin.

at current prices there must be an influx of 1,89 million $ per day if all mined BTC are sold immediately...
after the block reward change only 945k $ per day would be needed in order to maintain the price.

Therefore I completely agree with you that a BTC price increase is basically the lock of the century
(assuming that the price doesn´t reach new heights well before the block reward change or some major
event like a flaw in the bitcoin protocol or something similar)

thank you guys!
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