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Author Topic: The value spike... c'mon, you all noticed it!  (Read 4142 times)
Raulo
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April 20, 2011, 07:30:19 PM
 #21

First of all, if it still not absolutely clear, my statements were not referring to present, but referring to future when margins are worse and cost of daytime electricity makes GPU mining not viable during daytime. Why are you people trying to argue it using today's numbers is beyond me. My English must be really bad, perhaps it's time to find a book like "Writing for 5 year olds for dummies" or something...  Grin

I perfectly understood you were talking about the future. You don't need to buy this book.

However, let me rephrase it again  that no matter what the future of bitcoin mining is, the fixed cost of mining will be at least comparable and in case of ASICs will dwarf variable costs. And daily variability of electricity costs will be a small noise in the mining profitability equation.

If we are going to be out of biz, it will be by semiconductor companies and not by energy utilities. The silicon cost is the most crucial in mining profitability.

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deadlizard
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April 20, 2011, 07:43:28 PM
 #22

As far as I'm concerned Mining profits = Solar panels  Wink

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April 20, 2011, 09:27:25 PM
 #23

And due to the infrequency of difficulty updates, this is entirely possible and would result in all transactions backing up during the day and being processed at night.  Goodbye short transaction times.

This must be "globe of US syndrome"  Wink Did you know that while in US it is daytime there are places on this planet where it is night?



No way.

Palmface

Here in the US, we say Facepalm! Tongue

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Grinder
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April 20, 2011, 10:24:54 PM
 #24

I do not see how prices I charge have anything to do with your (or even mine) electricity costs.
I'm just assuming that you would set your prices at a level that was at least competitive with mtgox if you could. Either way, it shows that electricity cost is only a small part of the price people have to pay if they want to use a professional mining service.
NETio
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April 20, 2011, 11:33:19 PM
 #25

As far as I'm concerned Mining profits = Solar panels  Wink

Anyone ever actually looked into the time to break even on a solar panel purchase?

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April 20, 2011, 11:41:29 PM
 #26

As far as I'm concerned Mining profits = Solar panels  Wink

Anyone ever actually looked into the time to break even on a solar panel purchase?

Yes, I have.  Considered getting a set put on my roof.  With government subsidies and a purchasing contract from an Ohio power company, ROI was just over 7 years.  Without the subsidies, ROI would have exceeded the average life expectancy of the panels themselves.  Of course, I wasn't considering them for their investment value, but more for their ability to limit my own family's 'detrimental reliance' on the electric grid.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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April 20, 2011, 11:51:38 PM
 #27

Once miners like myself grow large enough to be able to buy electricity on half hourly auctions and mining at night and/or not mining at peak hours the hobbyist are going to be driven out of the mining market and I bet it will happen by 2012-2013.

There are some singular miners that you can't undercut.  I don't really understand why I have to keep pointing this out, but much mining occurs in the tiny efficienty type flats of young gaming geeks.  Who live in tiny flats with only electro-resistive heating, and would buy an high end graphics card anyway, most of whom already had one before learning anything about Bitcoin.  This may not be your situation, but there are certainly people who do live in such a situation, and there is no professional mining setup that can drive these guys out of the mining business.  I'd have thought that the market experiences with GNU/Linux and other open source software would have long proven that for-profit companies cannot compete with geeks who don't expect to make a profit.

And when the heat demand for those guys drops off, then the heat demand for their peers in the Southern Hemisphere will go up.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
topynate
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April 20, 2011, 11:56:10 PM
 #28

Bringing it back to the original topic: my first thought reading about the online poker indictments last week was that it would bump exchange rates on speculation that both money launderers and more legitimate poker players would at some point move to Bitcoin in volume. For this to fully explain the rise, though, would require insider knowledge of the indictments before they were unsealed.

That said, I'm definitely bullish on Bitcoin in the light of what's happened in the poker world.
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April 21, 2011, 01:00:13 AM
 #29

You need to take into account that the reward for finding a block is going to be divided by two in ~2 years. This will certainly change the trend.

Yes, it has been troubling me, because I don't really have much of a clue about how that would affect the market other than to force it up. But by how much? Twice the rate? I don't know. For the sake of having numbers to look at that's what I have plugged in, but I have a feeling it could be a lot higher.

I expect that in 2 years, yield from transactions fees will be much higher. This should mitigate some of the disruption caused by the reward decrease.

If txfees are on average 0.001BTC and there are 100,000 transactions every block, that's 100BTC just in txfees.

If there are sill no fees being paid in 2 years then I would worry about the viability of the txfee market and that of bitcoin.
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