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I will start selling at 4k and sell out at 6K.
The major correction should be between 2-3K $.
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Do you mean that you think it'll fall back to $2-3K after hitting around $6K? I would have thought it would fall lower than that, maybe to around $1500, but I hope you're right & I'm wrong
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April 2013 was a 80% correction (thank to the collapse of MtGox) in 90 minutes.
December 2014 was a 66% correction (the total, final correction, was around 70%).
So I believe the next big correction will be between 50 and 66%. The market is larger and the big actors willing to invest will have larger orders at low levels waiting to be filled just in case the price become a great bargain.
I do not think a 75% or an 80% correction have any serious probability to happen.
It would need a very serious pump and dump and without MtGox who would do it?
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The problem, IMHO, about doing a regression of the price trend is it will not take in account the changes in Bitcoin and Bitcoin ecosystem.
The major change, IMO, is the inflation differential between USD and BTC:
currently the differential is around 5% in favor of the USD, but it is largely compensated by the increase of adoption and demand from new actors entering the ecosystem.
until end 2012, the inflation rate was > 25% per year for Bitcoin. Come the halving of the reward, it become 12.5% (a bit (10-20%) higher because of always increasing hashing power of the miners).
If you look at the logarithmic chart of the exchange rate, you can trace a line before and after the halving over the lows.
Of these two lines, the second is steeper. Seriously steeper.
This is because the differential of inflation is a lot smaller.
I have doubts the Fed is really tapering the QE. Just moving around the column where it write it.
Or maybe they are just playing bad cop, good cop, with the ECB. The Fed stop QE and the ECB start something to compensate for it. This could explain because Belgium have bought more US Treasury Bonds than its entire GDP in the last few weeks. In essence they are not really stopping QE (inflating the USD and/or € supply).
If indeed inflation of the currency supply is much higher, as actors become aware of this, they will start diversifying from $ and € in limited commodities like gold, silver, bitcoin, whatever govrnment and Central banks can not print in oblivion.
The point of no return will be when the inflation rate of bitcoin will become low enough to always be under the inflation rate of the major currencies (€, $, £, Y, RMB).
People will need to move their currency reserves to bitcoin, just to save their purchasing power.
If you lose 1% every year just not being in Bitcoin and you have millions of USD would you keep all of them or convert a part of them in BTC?
If you lose 1% every year and 20% or 50% because you are not the first to convert them in BTC, how much would you wait?
The next two years, as Andreas Antonopulous foresaw, will be a wild ride. ANd a lot of wealth will be transfered from some to someone else.
