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Author Topic: My position  (Read 2801 times)
BadBear
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January 30, 2012, 04:48:13 PM
 #21

I think if there is no special "big news", "PR Company" bitсoin price can not see $ 30 again

Why not? Not short term, probably not mid term, but it's not gonna crash and burn spectacularly, I think it's rebounded quite well. I mean, 3,5, 7 years from now don't you think it's conceivable that more internet businesses are turning to electronic currency? I mean even if a big name corporation didn't, there are a lot of small businesses out there that would benefit from it. And they are just gonna hear the word bitcoin more and more often.  It's already proven itself invaluable among the black market, they aren't gonna just stop using it. Don't get caught up in the short term, and don't burn your ass trading.

It could crash and burn though, there are dangers. People get greedy and fork the chain, to make it more "acceptable" to the masses is probably the biggest threat (barring a critical flaw).

Edit:  All bets are off short term though, I'm not trading in this volatility, I'm just sitting it out and waiting.
Yes, I was referring to short-term trend of course ... totally agree with you

My bad, sounded so absolute with the can not. Short term will be rough, lots of lows and highs. Hopefully higher than the last  Wink

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author=Blitzboom link=topic=61780.msg722377#msg722377 date=1327940740]
I wonder sitting it out in BTC or USD?

BTC, I bought at after the second bottom @2.50-3.50 and held (with profits from shorting, should have just went long but wasn't totally sold it would recover well), almost sold when it hit ~4.50 the first time, when it looked like it was gonna crash.  When it hit 5 I gained a little faith and decided to hold and see what happens. Didn't wanna press my luck, tend to quit when I'm ahead. This fund will likely not be touched and is stored away. I plan to move more money in soon, waiting to see what direction zhoutong goes with bitcoinica. If all he does is just move to a different exchange, I may just stay with MtGox since I'm verified already, depends on where he goes.     

1Kz25jm6pjNTaz8bFezEYUeBYfEtpjuKRG | PGP: B5797C4F

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January 30, 2012, 05:03:16 PM
 #22

I think if there is no special "big news", "PR Company" bitсoin price can not see $ 30 again

Why not? Not short term, probably not mid term, but it's not gonna crash and burn spectacularly, I think it's rebounded quite well. I mean, 3,5, 7 years from now don't you think it's conceivable that more internet businesses are turning to electronic currency? I mean even if a big name corporation didn't, there are a lot of small businesses out there that would benefit from it. And they are just gonna hear the word bitcoin more and more often.  It's already proven itself invaluable among the black market, they aren't gonna just stop using it. Don't get caught up in the short term, and don't burn your ass trading.

It could crash and burn though, there are dangers. People get greedy and fork the chain, to make it more "acceptable" to the masses is probably the biggest threat (barring a critical flaw).

Edit:  All bets are off short term though, I'm not trading in this volatility, I'm just sitting it out and waiting.

+1

Edit:  I have been looking at the monthly charts regularly, looking for the longer trend lines (if any?).
Looking at the daily/weekly charts its just seems like so much noise. Day-trading in BTC is too volatile
for me,  for now,  so I'm investing long.
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January 30, 2012, 05:48:48 PM
 #23

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My bad, sounded so absolute with the can not. Short term will be rough, lots of lows and highs. Hopefully higher than the last  Wink
Well, I think that the biggest threat - it is "taking the masses of people," Why? Because the masses are not educated (in the technical sense) they can be "fed" fake fake site contains bitсoin client - and no one not even check how it works. You can even binary. We get a giant "fork" of transactions. And 50% of the attack is successfully done. necessary:
1) The fake site contains "special client"
2)Massive PR Company
done
The end of the game.

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January 30, 2012, 06:25:26 PM
 #24

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My bad, sounded so absolute with the can not. Short term will be rough, lots of lows and highs. Hopefully higher than the last  Wink
Well, I think that the biggest threat - it is "taking the masses of people," Why? Because the masses are not educated (in the technical sense) they can be "fed" fake fake site contains bitсoin client - and no one not even check how it works. You can even binary. We get a giant "fork" of transactions. And 50% of the attack is successfully done. necessary:
1) The fake site contains "special client"
2)Massive PR Company
done
The end of the game.

Wont happen.

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January 30, 2012, 06:51:59 PM
 #25

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My bad, sounded so absolute with the can not. Short term will be rough, lots of lows and highs. Hopefully higher than the last  Wink
Well, I think that the biggest threat - it is "taking the masses of people," Why? Because the masses are not educated (in the technical sense) they can be "fed" fake fake site contains bitсoin client - and no one not even check how it works. You can even binary. We get a giant "fork" of transactions. And 50% of the attack is successfully done. necessary:
1) The fake site contains "special client"
2)Massive PR Company
done
The end of the game.

Wont happen.
I hope that will not happen. But my grandfather said, "If the elephant pushes to itself in an ass the trunk - Means Somebody wishes it"

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zby
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January 30, 2012, 08:13:37 PM
 #26

A lot of traders think they can beat the market, even though very few will be able to do so over the long term. Staying long will be the best strategy for the vast majority.

Buying now and staying long is also about beating the market - if you speculate you are trying to beat the market by definition.  There are long term risks as well - for example government crash on bitcoin, or a better solution (maybe one not using so much electricity).  Now there is also a midterm risk that there will not be any more bitcoin speculators and the money in the  system will only oscillate the price back and forth between two numbers.  I am a little bit disappointed by the bitcoin google trends impact resulting from that 'Good Wife' episode.  Maybe the mainstream adoption of bitcoin will be much slower then we imagine.

Google trends tends to follow price, I have not found anything that shows me that it drives price.

I treat that as coincidence - or more precisely a too way feedback loop that just happened to show only one side.  And it is not exact - the episode, for example, did generate quite high peak - the popularity though did not last.  The main idea is that without more popularity I don't see much chances that bitcoin will rally for an extended time period, the prices can lead for some time - but if popularity lags too much - then prices have to go down as well.

No—really. If you run Pearson on it you will find the correlation peak with Google Trends following the high daily price by about three days.
The correlation is not that important for me if you don't provide a mechanism how it works - because without it you'll never know when it will stop working.  Also the fact that the the trends are correlated with price of three days ahead does not mean that the trends are not correlated with future prices.  It is pretty obvious that popularity (which I assume is correlated with google trends) leads to more people investing in bitcoin and more money entering the system - that the opposite effect is more visible is perhaps because people who hear about such a fast growing investment tend to google it up pretty quickly (in three days perhaps) - while the path from looking it up to investing takes more time and is more variable.
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February 01, 2012, 10:00:39 PM
 #27

I personally do not intend to sell more. Why? Because the growth can earn more than the reduction ... Who feels the same way, or vice versa, and why? ..

Hindsight is 20/20.

Some may of sold at $7.2 and then got back in at $4.8 but those that did I can count with 1 hand.
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February 02, 2012, 11:37:57 AM
 #28

I hope that will not happen. But my grandfather said, "If the elephant pushes to itself in an ass the trunk - Means Somebody wishes it"

Now you're just making that one up. I might have believed all your other Russian proverbs, but not that one.

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naima53
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February 02, 2012, 03:20:20 PM
 #29

I hope that will not happen. But my grandfather said, "If the elephant pushes to itself in an ass the trunk - Means Somebody wishes it"

Now you're just making that one up. I might have believed all your other Russian proverbs, but not that one.
It was not me. This is not a Russian proverb, it just means that "just did not happen, should the customer, Chief Executive"

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waveaddict
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February 02, 2012, 04:15:05 PM
 #30

I personally do not intend to sell more. Why? Because the growth can earn more than the reduction ... Who feels the same way, or vice versa, and why? ..

Hindsight is 20/20.

Some may of sold at $7.2 and then got back in at $4.8 but those that did I can count with 1 hand.

I was one of those who sold at 7ish and bought back in at 4.8 since it was pretty much a major moving average...was amazed how fast it happened though. But, then I was an idiot who shorted at 6.25 and covered at 6.35 only to see the price fall to 5.5 at which I bought back in only to see the price fall to 5ish. Waited for the price to recover to 5.45 and sold again only to see the price break 6 again. The lesson here is that the less you trade the better. Decide whether you are bullish or bearish bitcoin in the long run and trade only extremes. Back in at 5.82 and going to be a little less active as a bitcoin trader and more of a bitcoin investor at least until we start hitting extremely overbought conditions like we had at 7.2.

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