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Author Topic: Why trend reversal? -> basic technical analysis! trend lines is all you need :)  (Read 2455 times)
ampere9765
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May 20, 2014, 09:49:33 PM
 #21

how can you say that line cross was a coincidence? what are the odds?

I don't think it was a coincidence. Bulls have reason to point out the break of the down trend line. But are we looking at a $50 move? Or a $500 move? Bigger? The breakout alone is not so comforting looking at indicators. RSI is riding very high 4H. Hard to see a strong up move from here.

Could you be more specific? You want a new ATH in a week so that you could say for sure it was a strong move?

Seeing reversals before others is how you trade, not the other way around!

Yes, so is it a reversal or a retracement? I am implying it is a retracement.

What do you want me to be more specific about? As I said in another thread, a break of $530 for me indicates that this rally has legs.

?? the bear market was already a retracement! How many retracements of bear market do you see in the history of Bitcoin?
You make no sense. Sure, you could look for new higher high, but even if we pass 530, that wouldn t say that this is not a retracement. Just for you maybe. ANd as you are not george soros, i don t know why i will take this seriously.

I don't think you understand the terms.

Sure, the bear market was a retracement of a larger move. So? Do you know what a retracement is? It is a corrective move that "retraces" part (or sometimes all) of an impulsive move. You can have many, many retracements. And until we see an impulse that breaks outside of that range, that's what we are working with.

Yes, a break of $530 would not indicate an impulse. In fact, if it happens, I plan to exit in the $700s.

Don't take it seriously. You think I take *you* seriously?
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yayayo
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May 20, 2014, 09:54:21 PM
 #22

some ask why a sudden increase in price? what's the news?

the reason is simple, and it has nothing to do with news!

Trend reversal was about to happen only if we had these conditions:

-Important breakout points broken and crossings of trend lines
-sudden rise in volume

Do you think it's a coincidence that the huge sudden spike for no apparent reason (no news) happens when two lines that touch several crucial points in the graph meet PERFECTLY for the first time ever?  Wink

You can always draw different trendlines. The lines shown are also manipulated to some extent, because if you look closely they were already pierced before. The question is: Did you draw these trendlines long before to predict the breakout or did you draw these trendlines after the breakout to find an explanation?

I doubt this is a lasting trend reversal, so expect to adjust your trendlines... Cheesy

ya.ya.yo!
rudius
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May 20, 2014, 09:56:47 PM
 #23

how can you say that line cross was a coincidence? what are the odds?

I don't think it was a coincidence. Bulls have reason to point out the break of the down trend line. But are we looking at a $50 move? Or a $500 move? Bigger? The breakout alone is not so comforting looking at indicators. RSI is riding very high 4H. Hard to see a strong up move from here.

Could you be more specific? You want a new ATH in a week so that you could say for sure it was a strong move?

Seeing reversals before others is how you trade, not the other way around!

Yes, so is it a reversal or a retracement? I am implying it is a retracement.

What do you want me to be more specific about? As I said in another thread, a break of $530 for me indicates that this rally has legs.

?? the bear market was already a retracement! How many retracements of bear market do you see in the history of Bitcoin?
You make no sense. Sure, you could look for new higher high, but even if we pass 530, that wouldn t say that this is not a retracement. Just for you maybe. ANd as you are not george soros, i don t know why i will take this seriously.

I don't think you understand the terms.

Sure, the bear market was a retracement of a larger move. So? Do you know what a retracement is? It is a corrective move that "retraces" part (or sometimes all) of an impulsive move. You can have many, many retracements. And until we see an impulse that breaks outside of that range, that's what we are working with.

Yes, a break of $530 would not indicate an impulse. In fact, if it happens, I plan to exit in the $700s.

Don't take it seriously. You think I take *you* seriously?

lol yes my english is very bad. I know very well what a retracement is. So you are saying that this new up trend is a retracement until it breaks the ATH of november. Technically, you are right. But that still make no sense.

What i meant is that you dont have the financial power of george Soros so you can peak what ever price you want, it won t have any effect. 530 is the best you can safely do right now. But you could have watched higher low instead and bought at a much lower price.
rudius
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May 20, 2014, 10:00:07 PM
 #24

some ask why a sudden increase in price? what's the news?

the reason is simple, and it has nothing to do with news!

Trend reversal was about to happen only if we had these conditions:

-Important breakout points broken and crossings of trend lines
-sudden rise in volume

Do you think it's a coincidence that the huge sudden spike for no apparent reason (no news) happens when two lines that touch several crucial points in the graph meet PERFECTLY for the first time ever?  Wink

You can always draw different trendlines. The lines shown are also manipulated to some extent, because if you look closely they were already pierced before. The question is: Did you draw these trendlines long before to predict the breakout or did you draw these trendlines after the breakout to find an explanation?

I doubt this is a lasting trend reversal, so expect to adjust your trendlines... Cheesy

ya.ya.yo!

You are not serious? the trendline is pierced because traders test all the time any trendlines. And they test it because the line is there long before they are testing it. They is no adjustment... TA id predictive not to explain thing after the fact like people look at news to explain why bitcoin spikes.
RockHound
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May 20, 2014, 10:17:54 PM
 #25

some ask why a sudden increase in price? what's the news?

the reason is simple, and it has nothing to do with news!


Trend reversal was about to happen only if we had these conditions:

-Important breakout points broken and crossings of trend lines
-sudden rise in volume










Do you think it's a coincidence that the huge sudden spike for no apparent reason (no news) happens when two lines that touch several crucial points in the graph meet PERFECTLY for the first time ever?  Wink


Thanks for your analysis - Who knows?  Wink

Though what you've speculated makes sense. I too think a sharp fast (2Hr) dump back down to $450 could happen, largely due to the sudden increase in Vol.
ampere9765
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May 20, 2014, 10:23:55 PM
 #26

how can you say that line cross was a coincidence? what are the odds?

I don't think it was a coincidence. Bulls have reason to point out the break of the down trend line. But are we looking at a $50 move? Or a $500 move? Bigger? The breakout alone is not so comforting looking at indicators. RSI is riding very high 4H. Hard to see a strong up move from here.

Could you be more specific? You want a new ATH in a week so that you could say for sure it was a strong move?

Seeing reversals before others is how you trade, not the other way around!

Yes, so is it a reversal or a retracement? I am implying it is a retracement.

What do you want me to be more specific about? As I said in another thread, a break of $530 for me indicates that this rally has legs.

?? the bear market was already a retracement! How many retracements of bear market do you see in the history of Bitcoin?
You make no sense. Sure, you could look for new higher high, but even if we pass 530, that wouldn t say that this is not a retracement. Just for you maybe. ANd as you are not george soros, i don t know why i will take this seriously.

I don't think you understand the terms.

Sure, the bear market was a retracement of a larger move. So? Do you know what a retracement is? It is a corrective move that "retraces" part (or sometimes all) of an impulsive move. You can have many, many retracements. And until we see an impulse that breaks outside of that range, that's what we are working with.

Yes, a break of $530 would not indicate an impulse. In fact, if it happens, I plan to exit in the $700s.

Don't take it seriously. You think I take *you* seriously?

lol yes my english is very bad. I know very well what a retracement is. So you are saying that this new up trend is a retracement until it breaks the ATH of november. Technically, you are right. But that still make no sense.

What i meant is that you dont have the financial power of george Soros so you can peak what ever price you want, it won t have any effect. 530 is the best you can safely do right now. But you could have watched higher low instead and bought at a much lower price.

I only trade a sub-wave, or a wave, at a time. I'm not worried about the 340 low or the 420 low. That's over and I've made many trades since. What I'm saying is that $530 is a good level to watch -- to short on failure, not only go long on breakout.
rudius
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May 20, 2014, 10:54:30 PM
 #27

how can you say that line cross was a coincidence? what are the odds?

I don't think it was a coincidence. Bulls have reason to point out the break of the down trend line. But are we looking at a $50 move? Or a $500 move? Bigger? The breakout alone is not so comforting looking at indicators. RSI is riding very high 4H. Hard to see a strong up move from here.

Could you be more specific? You want a new ATH in a week so that you could say for sure it was a strong move?

Seeing reversals before others is how you trade, not the other way around!

Yes, so is it a reversal or a retracement? I am implying it is a retracement.

What do you want me to be more specific about? As I said in another thread, a break of $530 for me indicates that this rally has legs.

?? the bear market was already a retracement! How many retracements of bear market do you see in the history of Bitcoin?
You make no sense. Sure, you could look for new higher high, but even if we pass 530, that wouldn t say that this is not a retracement. Just for you maybe. ANd as you are not george soros, i don t know why i will take this seriously.

I don't think you understand the terms.

Sure, the bear market was a retracement of a larger move. So? Do you know what a retracement is? It is a corrective move that "retraces" part (or sometimes all) of an impulsive move. You can have many, many retracements. And until we see an impulse that breaks outside of that range, that's what we are working with.

Yes, a break of $530 would not indicate an impulse. In fact, if it happens, I plan to exit in the $700s.

Don't take it seriously. You think I take *you* seriously?

lol yes my english is very bad. I know very well what a retracement is. So you are saying that this new up trend is a retracement until it breaks the ATH of november. Technically, you are right. But that still make no sense.

What i meant is that you dont have the financial power of george Soros so you can peak what ever price you want, it won t have any effect. 530 is the best you can safely do right now. But you could have watched higher low instead and bought at a much lower price.

I only trade a sub-wave, or a wave, at a time. I'm not worried about the 340 low or the 420 low. That's over and I've made many trades since. What I'm saying is that $530 is a good level to watch -- to short on failure, not only go long on breakout.

i wouldn t short BTC right now, nor swing trades small waves. Forex is more your style. Did you demo it?
MatTheCat
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May 20, 2014, 11:01:23 PM
 #28

some ask why a sudden increase in price? what's the news?

the reason is simple, and it has nothing to do with news!


Trend reversal was about to happen only if we had these conditions:

-Important breakout points broken and crossings of trend lines
-sudden rise in volume

Do you think it's a coincidence that the huge sudden spike for no apparent reason (no news) happens when two lines that touch several crucial points in the graph meet PERFECTLY for the first time ever?  Wink


Agreed.

Pretty much the same chart I used in my last TA 101 thread. I suspected that another leg down was more likely than a leg up, but wasn't doing anything until either of those trendlines was convincingly breached. The support was unconvincingly breached on low volume, Huobi followed by whales on Bitstamp seen to it that the resistance trendline was taken out emphatically on strong volume.

I am long since $462, and am looking for Bitcoin to work its way up to the next (and final) resistance trendline currently at around $560, but by the time Bitcoin gets there (if it does), probably at around $540-$550, a price range that has proven pivotal for Bitcoin on many occasions.

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Bitfinex victims. DO NOT TOUCH THE BFX TOKEN! Start moving it around, or trading it, and you will be construed as having accepted it as an alternative means of payment to your USD, BTC, etc.
ampere9765
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May 20, 2014, 11:04:53 PM
 #29

how can you say that line cross was a coincidence? what are the odds?

I don't think it was a coincidence. Bulls have reason to point out the break of the down trend line. But are we looking at a $50 move? Or a $500 move? Bigger? The breakout alone is not so comforting looking at indicators. RSI is riding very high 4H. Hard to see a strong up move from here.

Could you be more specific? You want a new ATH in a week so that you could say for sure it was a strong move?

Seeing reversals before others is how you trade, not the other way around!

Yes, so is it a reversal or a retracement? I am implying it is a retracement.

What do you want me to be more specific about? As I said in another thread, a break of $530 for me indicates that this rally has legs.

?? the bear market was already a retracement! How many retracements of bear market do you see in the history of Bitcoin?
You make no sense. Sure, you could look for new higher high, but even if we pass 530, that wouldn t say that this is not a retracement. Just for you maybe. ANd as you are not george soros, i don t know why i will take this seriously.

I don't think you understand the terms.

Sure, the bear market was a retracement of a larger move. So? Do you know what a retracement is? It is a corrective move that "retraces" part (or sometimes all) of an impulsive move. You can have many, many retracements. And until we see an impulse that breaks outside of that range, that's what we are working with.

Yes, a break of $530 would not indicate an impulse. In fact, if it happens, I plan to exit in the $700s.

Don't take it seriously. You think I take *you* seriously?

lol yes my english is very bad. I know very well what a retracement is. So you are saying that this new up trend is a retracement until it breaks the ATH of november. Technically, you are right. But that still make no sense.

What i meant is that you dont have the financial power of george Soros so you can peak what ever price you want, it won t have any effect. 530 is the best you can safely do right now. But you could have watched higher low instead and bought at a much lower price.

I only trade a sub-wave, or a wave, at a time. I'm not worried about the 340 low or the 420 low. That's over and I've made many trades since. What I'm saying is that $530 is a good level to watch -- to short on failure, not only go long on breakout.

i wouldn t short BTC right now, nor swing trades small waves. Forex is more your style. Did you demo it?

Nah I only trade BTC. Only have experience with that. And some alts here and there. I think I would get killed in forex. I agree, short is risky -- I'd have to see a clear failure. Since ~2 months ago, I don't take any *large* positions on BTC anyway. Moves are too small right now to risk much. Waiting for very clear bullish reversal. Don't mind missing the bottom either, I've profited enough in coins during this bear market. Long term position is probably prudent to just go long now if you don't care about the day to day.
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May 22, 2014, 01:00:44 AM
 #30

Huh? trend reversal? what reversal? we've only been going up for years!

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May 22, 2014, 08:49:39 AM
 #31

Huh? trend reversal? what reversal? we've only been going up for years!
eheh you're right!
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May 22, 2014, 10:25:15 AM
 #32

TA used to not work for Bitcoin. I think it was because >90% of the traders were just amateurs riding the crazy roller coaster jumping on and off and such unreasonable points that there was no way to predict what they would do. And someone with $10,000 could move the price a dollar or so (when the price was under $10).

Now with more big investors, they follow trends and react based on trend analysis. It is fairly self fulfilling.

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May 22, 2014, 11:09:53 AM
 #33

TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Kinda funny to see that yesterday very few wanted to buy around 440-450, but now people are fighting over almost $500 coins.  Grin

thanks for this thread. I m tired to read that TA doesn t work from newbies...

And to complete, traders move the market not the news. You could see some spike during news, it s juste the surprise. Traders absorb and move on.
I am tired too when I see noobs talking about TA
segeln
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May 22, 2014, 11:11:46 AM
 #34

TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Kinda funny to see that yesterday very few wanted to buy around 440-450, but now people are fighting over almost $500 coins.  Grin

TA is mass psychology. When grouped together, humans move in somewhat predictable patterns. TA applies mathematical formulas to this. It doesn't guarantee anything, but it is certainly helpful if you know how to use it.
exactly that way ("how to use it")
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