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Author Topic: Silk Road sale.... BTC explosion.  (Read 15830 times)
adamstgBit
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February 03, 2012, 07:57:32 AM
 #21

Is 10% a big deal in this case?

########## - normal price
######### - sale price
##### - 2 for the price of 1
When you're buying something 100$ that's $10 off.  Not bad.  Also many individual sellers are offering additional sales (some 2 for 1) and free samples for shipping price only.
That said I still think it will do little to affect Bitcoin

At the very least I am interested in how big of an effect it will have.  Did SR announce this sale early enough for users to get money to the exchanges?

the only effect buying things for bitcoin has / always will have is providing stability at the current price.

buyer buys 10 @ 5.95
1 hour later
seller sells 10  @ 5.95


In general, (and you have proven this time and time again) you are a fucking idiot.

Growth in demand for goods and services conveniently purchased with bitcoin will shift the demand curve for bitcoin outwards. In the long-run, growth in txn demand will have an overwhelming influence on bitcoin prices. Without txn demand, the price of any currency falls to zero. If short-run things like a "sale" don't influence prices, it is because price is determined by long-run expectations about demand growth. A one-off sale has no effect on long-run expectations. If it did, a sale would provide an opportunity for speculators to buy prior to the sale, sell during the sale, and buy again after it ends. I don't believe in that kind of BS.

A permanent 10% reduction in effective silk road prices (for example if silk road's fraud prevention technology improved) would definately boost bitcoin prices.

you dont have to be rude

sure if their is more demand for goods in bitcoin, then the demand for bitcoin goes up. but the point is the seller wont hold on to the btc, he will sell right away to avoid the volatility.

all this dose in increase volume and add support for current price.

in the future once bitcoin has a real working economy... the "bitcoin GDP" will have a huge impact on the price. right now it has very little effect if any

Let's reduce what you said to its core elements:

1) Growth in "bitcoin GDP" does not affect prices. because merchants do not want to hold on to their bitcoins
2) Once "bitcoin GDP" grows then prices will be affected.

Do you understand that you are a fucking idiot now, or are you still confused?

No... you don't understand.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect


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February 03, 2012, 08:14:45 AM
 #22

lets say that 90% of the merchants of a small country sell their goods for XYZ dollor and then turn around and exchange XYZ dollars for USD

XYZ dollars wouldn't be worth much at all

why is bitcoin different?

I doubt this will have an effect on the price.  First, if anyone is buying bitcoins for the sale it is going to take a while and they have most likely done it already. First you need to get money through dwolla to mtgox, then get bitcoins, then send them to SR account.   Then, most sellers try to cash out BTC to USD as soon as possible because of the volatility of Bitcoin.

While it is a great sale, it will do little to affect the bitcoin market which is influenced more by investors/speculators/traders.

^ this makes sense to me

please explain why we are wrong

thank you


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February 03, 2012, 09:09:12 AM
 #23

The more bitcoin is used for the purpose it's supposed to be used for, the greater the demand. If more people want bitcoins to spend, they have to get them first. At a guess there'll be a delay of 12 - 24 hours until the coins get back into the system. When more people use bitcoin to purchase items, more coins will be unavailable for a short period of time.

But the effect of a permanent larger number of bitcoin users is different to what is proposed here. For the Silk Road discounts this weekend, changes i bitcoin price will depend on i. whether new users are attracted to bitcoin because of the discounts and ii. if they will become permanent bitcoin users (and iii. whether we think the fickle minds of speculators and those with enough buying power to influence the market by themselves will be trying to derail the bitcoin price change).

If the answer to i. is 'no', then there might be a short term increase in coin price as demand increases. But after the sale there'll be no percentage increase in the number of coins permanently out of circulation.

If the answer to i. if 'yes' but the answer to ii. is 'no', then the btc price increase is likely to be higher as demand increases due to even more short term demand, but again after the sale there'll be no percentage increase in the number of coins permanently out of circulation and I'd expect the price to return to a similar level to pre sale.

If the answer to i. if 'yes' and the answer to ii. is 'yes' then I'd expect the same btc price increase during the sale, and a correction to slightly higher btc prices than current.

All of this assumes the answer to iii. is 'no' which is unlikely. Any of these price increases could start a rally, followed by a correction, followed by ummmm no idea. But long term, an increase in bitcoin users will lead to an increase in the percentage of bitcoins permanently out of circulation and increase price.




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February 03, 2012, 12:12:29 PM
 #24

I think it's false to think that increased merchant activity won't increase BTC price. First of all, not all merchants sell 100% of their BTC, some of them believe in Bitcoin and will hold at least a portion of them long term. Thus they become investors as well. Even if a minority of merchants do this, it will still have an effect especially when we're talking about a market the size of Silk Road.

Then there are a large number of side effects from Silk Road activity (pun intended) which are not directly related to the buy/sell ratio. Not only will the news about increased trade reach the ears of speculators who will drive the price up at least a little, Silk Road is most likely getting more new users than usual which will definitely lead to more people using Bitcoin and more people talking about how great it is.

It's hard to quantify the total effect but I can guarantee it has a meaningful effect when you put everything together. Some Silk Road merchants might understand this as well which will lead them to do speculative short term hoarding because they expect the price to rise. Again it's unknown what percentage of them think about this at all, but I'm sure some do.

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February 03, 2012, 12:13:40 PM
 #25

The more bitcoin is used for the purpose it's supposed to be used for, the greater the demand. If more people want bitcoins to spend, they have to get them first. At a guess there'll be a delay of 12 - 24 hours until the coins get back into the system. When more people use bitcoin to purchase items, more coins will be unavailable for a short period of time.

But the effect of a permanent larger number of bitcoin users is different to what is proposed here. For the Silk Road discounts this weekend, changes i bitcoin price will depend on i. whether new users are attracted to bitcoin because of the discounts and ii. if they will become permanent bitcoin users (and iii. whether we think the fickle minds of speculators and those with enough buying power to influence the market by themselves will be trying to derail the bitcoin price change).

If the answer to i. is 'no', then there might be a short term increase in coin price as demand increases. But after the sale there'll be no percentage increase in the number of coins permanently out of circulation.

If the answer to i. if 'yes' but the answer to ii. is 'no', then the btc price increase is likely to be higher as demand increases due to even more short term demand, but again after the sale there'll be no percentage increase in the number of coins permanently out of circulation and I'd expect the price to return to a similar level to pre sale.

If the answer to i. if 'yes' and the answer to ii. is 'yes' then I'd expect the same btc price increase during the sale, and a correction to slightly higher btc prices than current.

All of this assumes the answer to iii. is 'no' which is unlikely. Any of these price increases could start a rally, followed by a correction, followed by ummmm no idea. But long term, an increase in bitcoin users will lead to an increase in the percentage of bitcoins permanently out of circulation and increase price.


Consider the US dollar. You lose money by holding US dollars because they do not yield interest like treasury bills. However, you can't hold treasury bills and trade them for dollars whenever you make a purchase. This would be too costly in terms of time and fees. To balance these two problems, you hold enough dollars to satisfy your near term spending needs. It is this demand that makes dollars valuable. The same idea applies to bitcoin.

Everyone can hold bitcoin only temporarily. However, even demand just to hold for a short while can increase price.

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organofcorti
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February 03, 2012, 12:40:07 PM
 #26

Consider the US dollar. You lose money by holding US dollars because they do not yield interest like treasury bills. However, you can't hold treasury bills and trade them for dollars whenever you make a purchase. This would be too costly in terms of time and fees. To balance these two problems, you hold enough dollars to satisfy your near term spending needs. It is this demand that makes dollars valuable. The same idea applies to bitcoin.

Bitcoins seem to have had a return close to a stock than a currency, making it possible to invest in them, so holding on to them won't necessarily cost you in the same way holding on to currency will.

Quote
Everyone can hold bitcoin only temporarily. However, even demand just to hold for a short while can increase price.

Sure. That's pretty much what I meant, just spelling it out for people that don't follow - if you permanently increase the number of people holding for a short time, a long term positive price adjustment should follow. If you only increase the demand for a short time without increasing the number of people holding coins, I'd only expect price to increase until the increased demand is finished (sale is over).

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February 03, 2012, 12:45:26 PM
 #27

Consider the US dollar. You lose money by holding US dollars because they do not yield interest like treasury bills. However, you can't hold treasury bills and trade them for dollars whenever you make a purchase. This would be too costly in terms of time and fees. To balance these two problems, you hold enough dollars to satisfy your near term spending needs. It is this demand that makes dollars valuable. The same idea applies to bitcoin.

Bitcoins seem to have had a return close to a stock than a currency, making it possible to invest in them, so holding on to them won't necessarily cost you in the same way holding on to currency will.

Quote
Everyone can hold bitcoin only temporarily. However, even demand just to hold for a short while can increase price.

Sure. That's pretty much what I meant, just spelling it out for people that don't follow - if you permanently increase the number of people holding for a short time, a long term positive price adjustment should follow. If you only increase the demand for a short time without increasing the number of people holding coins, I'd only expect price to increase until the increased demand is finished (sale is over).

I'm sorry you had it basically right. Sorry for forgetting to indicate my agreement.

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February 03, 2012, 12:49:22 PM
 #28

Nah, reading your post again it was pretty clear. I guess I was not paying attention after spending the evening getting this posted.

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February 03, 2012, 06:54:20 PM
 #29

Quote
Everyone can hold bitcoin only temporarily. However, even demand just to hold for a short while can increase price.

IMO
people that regularly, spend bitcoin (temporarily hold coins), have already been factored into the current price.
the only way that the bitcoin economy can increase price is, if their is more spending, and this increase in spending is sustained.

I think we can all agree that this sale will have little effect on price. but it could be that this sale will cause more people to try Silk Road, and maybe some of those new Silk Road users will become regular customers.

I firmly believe that in the future the bitcoin economy will be the driving force behind price. but ATM investors / traders / bitcoinia gamblers  Cheesy  set the price.

am I underestimation the current bitcoin economy?

 Roll Eyes most likely




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February 03, 2012, 07:13:16 PM
 #30

Is 10% a big deal in this case?

########## - normal price
######### - sale price
##### - 2 for the price of 1
When you're buying something 100$ that's $10 off.  Not bad.  Also many individual sellers are offering additional sales (some 2 for 1) and free samples for shipping price only.
That said I still think it will do little to affect Bitcoin

At the very least I am interested in how big of an effect it will have.  Did SR announce this sale early enough for users to get money to the exchanges?

the only effect buying things for bitcoin has / always will have is providing stability at the current price.

buyer buys 10 @ 5.95
1 hour later
seller sells 10  @ 5.95


In general, (and you have proven this time and time again) you are a fucking idiot.

Growth in demand for goods and services conveniently purchased with bitcoin will shift the demand curve for bitcoin outwards. In the long-run, growth in txn demand will have an overwhelming influence on bitcoin prices. Without txn demand, the price of any currency falls to zero. If short-run things like a "sale" don't influence prices, it is because price is determined by long-run expectations about demand growth. A one-off sale has no effect on long-run expectations. If it did, a sale would provide an opportunity for speculators to buy prior to the sale, sell during the sale, and buy again after it ends. I don't believe in that kind of BS.

A permanent 10% reduction in effective silk road prices (for example if silk road's fraud prevention technology improved) would definately boost bitcoin prices.

 






1) You don't have to be such a fucking dickass
2) You're only half-right and adamstgbit is the other half

In the case of SR, this one-off sale will probably have a temporary increase in the price, offset by a decrease after it is over as sellers that accumulated BTC will sell them off. It definitely could be a test for how well prices stabilize in these temporary distortions and how much SR has as an influence over the amount of BTC bought/sold (which anyone could take a wild guess at).
His example is right, if you buy bitcoins and then immediately sell them back, on average, this will have no effect in the long run but really just test it's price stability in the very short term. This is likely going to be the case this weekend. I see no reason why this would be a permanent boost in prices...
This is where you are half-right. Yes, there will be an increase in BTC demand which will push up the price. After this weekend, however, it will be immediately followed by a likely near-equal increase in BTC supply. Ceteris paribus, we should be right back to where we were.
Permanent rises in BTC price would be associated with permanent increases in BTC demand. This SR stunt might have a small effect in that area (new years trying SR for the first time, more loyalty and patronage to the site, etc) but for the most part it is a temporary thing. Speculators would be wise to sell on increases these days and expect some drops when all the sellers that raked in BTC over the weekend look to cash out.
The only reason why prices will jump up for these quick growths in transaction demand is because the bitcoin market is so limited, and this sale sounds like it was a surprise. 10% drugs in BTC means those who were going to buy anyways would be willing to pay up to 10% more for BTC than they expect to get use out of. Definitely should lead to some small fictional growth.
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February 03, 2012, 07:19:06 PM
 #31

I see a services catogory. Whats that for, rent a slave, hitman, heroin oil massage, the more entuseastic sort of buisiness dealings?

Also, cunicula, don't be so unpleasent.
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February 03, 2012, 07:27:29 PM
 #32

Cool. So now drugs on silk road are only 90% more expensive than the street...

1.1btc for a friggin' norco? I could be a btc millionaire.

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February 03, 2012, 07:46:32 PM
 #33

... Silk Road has one of the largest (if not the largest) BTC market. ...

I can't imagine that being true.
Like the overwhelming majority of bitcoin peers I have met, I would not even consider using SR.
They are a drop in the bucket. Of course neither you nor I would know how much business they traffic.

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February 03, 2012, 08:14:51 PM
 #34

... Silk Road has one of the largest (if not the largest) BTC market. ...

I can't imagine that being true.
Like the overwhelming majority of bitcoin peers I have met, I would not even consider using SR.
They are a drop in the bucket. Of course neither you nor I would know how much business they traffic.

It has existed longer than the overwhelming majority of bitcoin businesses. It would take very little daily volume to get the top spot. What are they competing with? Fucking alpaca socks? Coffee? People like drugs more.

The bitcoin community isn't using silkroad, the silkroad community is using bitcoin. Big BIG difference.

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February 04, 2012, 08:42:32 PM
 #35

Cool. So now drugs on silk road are only 90% more expensive than the street...

1.1btc for a friggin' norco? I could be a btc millionaire.

Yes but that is the price you pay for anonymity and not having to deal with drug dealers in person.  Some other things are competitively priced. 
And just like I predicted the sale did nothing to impact Bitcoin price.
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February 04, 2012, 09:01:45 PM
 #36

Cool. So now drugs on silk road are only 90% more expensive than the street...

1.1btc for a friggin' norco? I could be a btc millionaire.

Yes but that is the price you pay for anonymity and not having to deal with drug dealers in person.  Some other things are competitively priced. 
And just like I predicted the sale did nothing to impact Bitcoin price.

Absolutely nothing on there is competitively priced for the US, but I can imagine that other countries don't have quite the supply lines that we do. Personally, I think the tradeoff of dealing with the USPS vs. street dealers comes out in the wash. I'd rather get stabbed than convicted of international trafficking... The likelihood of filthy hippies knifing you is pretty low, and they always have the best drugs.

I really think silkroad is probably the biggest hit with 17 and 40 year olds who don't know where to get the drugs they want. If you've never seen LSD before, a $20 hit doesn't seem to expensive. Me? I prefer a $20 ten-strip.

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February 04, 2012, 11:02:40 PM
 #37



Also, cunicula, don't be so unpleasent.

def a pattern with this user, forum has an ignore button folks

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February 05, 2012, 01:26:50 AM
 #38

SR has definitely been a hit with everyone I've shown it to. I'm sure its at least a quarter of the bitcoin economy if you just look at the latest feedback left for sellers.

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notme
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February 05, 2012, 01:35:40 AM
 #39

I believe I read somewhere that silkroad hedges to dollars when the buyer buys, and back to bitcoin when the buyer marks as delivered and they need to pay the seller.  If that's true, I'd expect slight downward pressure during the sale, and upward pressure over the coming weeks as people's deliveries arrive.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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February 05, 2012, 06:16:12 AM
 #40

I believe I read somewhere that silkroad hedges to dollars when the buyer buys, and back to bitcoin when the buyer marks as delivered and they need to pay the seller.  If that's true, I'd expect slight downward pressure during the sale, and upward pressure over the coming weeks as people's deliveries arrive.
Wow that actually might make sense.  Considering how much was sold this weekend I'd say there was actually more of an impact then I thought, and if everyone gets their order and finalizes at the same time that could cause a shift.
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