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Author Topic: Reasons why I maxed my BTC holdings  (Read 1242 times)
Andrew Vorobyov
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February 09, 2012, 12:08:59 AM
 #1

You must be blind not to see that something is going on with BTC today... MTGOX has new record volume since Nov 15

Let's talk about facts now:

1. Somebody sold 120K of BTC
2. Somebody bought 120K of BTC
3. Price did not move a shit.
4. We have both fundamental and technical analysis pointing for upside move.
5. The person who bought 120K @ 5.6 will unlikely to sell it lower that price.

Now let's guess what it can be.

1. Early adopter(s) cashing out. Outcome - price did not stumble - means demand is great and people who were selling now have less 120K BTC in their pockets to move prices down

2. MTGOX scam in progress ( It's very unlikely) - they are selling non existent BTC. Outcome - when people start to withdraw BTC shit will hit the fan very fast. Lack of BTCs on the market will be uncovered and we will have price breaking ceiling

3. MTGOX scam in progress ( It's very unlikely) - they are buying BTC with non existent USD. Outcome - when people start to withdraw USD shit will hit the fan but slower. MTGOX will promise to pay everything in next 2 or 3 months but still...  Lack of BTCs on the market will be uncovered and we will have price breaking ceiling

4. Somebody crazy shorting BTC with leverage full scale on Bitcoinica. Outcome - price will need to go up a little bit and he will receive margin call.. Price will get rid of resistance and will go up with speed.

5. Somebody crazy buying BTC with leverage full scale on Bitcoinica. Outcome - price will need to go down a little bit and he will receive margin call.. But we will remember him as a guy that donated fortune to stop BTC price drop and held current price levels with his own money

I can't imagine what news must be there to trigger massive sell off of the rest 6M BTC...

What do you think about it?

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Blitz­
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"Cut Your Loose"


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February 09, 2012, 12:46:13 AM
 #2

4. We have both fundamental and technical analysis pointing for upside move.
Share analysis, please.

Anyway, I agree with your sentiment. I am long again for the time being. The depth has recovered for the second or third time to full strength on the bid side (in b4 manipulator, last time someone sold 45k straight into the bids, so no, the bids are real). It’s difficult to top this selloff.

Problem is, there’s lots of resistance at 5.85, 6.2, 7.2.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
casascius
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The Casascius 1oz 10BTC Silver Round (w/ Gold B)


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February 09, 2012, 12:55:37 AM
 #3

In short (because I'm on my mobile), I am all in BTC as well, similar sentiments for the time being.

Yes may likely go down short term - and hope no major old BTC shows up on the market.  I'd go after the short term dip if I thought it were any safer than casino gambling, but since I don't feel i can count on that, I'm after the long.  Like thinking about what happens when the block reward halves.

Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable.  I never believe them.  If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins.  I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion.  Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice.  Don't keep coins online. Use paper wallets instead.
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February 09, 2012, 01:23:02 AM
 #4

me2

Andrew Vorobyov
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February 09, 2012, 06:37:38 AM
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Share analysis, please.

Problem is, there’s lots of resistance at 5.85, 6.2, 7.2.

Multi signature Bitcoin client is just around the corner.

+ Last month building triangle which is definitely corrective structure ( may not be finished thou) and trend will follow


All this "levels" will be cancelled when price is on the move... It's not stop loss/take profit orders...

BrightAnarchist
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February 09, 2012, 07:05:46 AM
 #6

The thing I see is, risk assets are extremely overbought at present, and BTC seems to follow the general flow of liquidity/credit in the broader financial markets.

If it does not follow their behavior, then it will be a first for Bitcoin IMO.

I of course have no clue what will happen, just postulating here Wink
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February 09, 2012, 04:25:10 PM
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Price has been stable ~$5something for awhile I don't remember the last time price was so predictable. Great success for me, who relies on stable pricing to take funds online
Andrew Vorobyov
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February 14, 2012, 01:01:00 PM
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I can't imagine what news must be there to trigger massive sell off of the rest 6M BTC...

The only thing I forgot that there are Murphy's laws.. Smiley My average price was 5.6. Current rate is 4.3.

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